Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Results show dramatically lower NIM, net interest income, but stock gains in spades</li>
<li>The only way to analyze 7182 is to have a view on its stock, bonds, investment gains</li>
<li>Unrealized gains more than doubled to JPY472bn: fire-power remains, but is it valuable?</li>
</ul>


Results show dramatically lower NIM, net interest income, but stock gains in spades
The only way to analyze 7182 is to have a view on its stock, bonds, investment gains
Unrealized gains more than doubled to JPY472bn: fire-power remains, but is it valuable?


Japan Post Bank - JPY234bn in Gains More than Offsets Cratering Net Interest Income

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Credit cost surge in 1H23 is strangely tempered in 2H23 results, although still rising</li>
<li>Despite rising credit costs, they remain at relatively low levels compared with history</li>
<li>Data on credit metrics suggest to us that credit costs should have been higher in 2H23</li>
</ul>


Credit cost surge in 1H23 is strangely tempered in 2H23 results, although still rising
Despite rising credit costs, they remain at relatively low levels compared with history
Data on credit metrics suggest to us that credit costs should have been higher in 2H23


CBA - The Applause Over Results Seem Misplaced, Considering Credit Metrics

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The ACCC has decided not to authorize the ANZ takeover of Suncorp-Metway Bank</li>
<li>Can be positive for ANZ without executive risk, integration costs, unknown new risks</li>
<li>Differentiator ANZ to peers its islessor exposure to Australia, and better credit metrics</li>
</ul>


The ACCC has decided not to authorize the ANZ takeover of Suncorp-Metway Bank
Can be positive for ANZ without executive risk, integration costs, unknown new risks
Differentiator ANZ to peers its islessor exposure to Australia, and better credit metrics


ANZ - ACCC Denies ANZ's Takeover of Suncorp, May Be Positive for ANZ After All

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Meituan, Kuaishou, CNOOC, PetroChina, Tencent, BYD, HSBC, HKEx.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows for Meituan, Kuaishou, CNOOC, PetroChina, Tencent, BYD, HSBC, HKEx.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (July): Meituan, Kuaishou, CNOOC, PetroChina, Tencent, BYD, HSBC, HKEx

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 28th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the outflows to be USD 65.0 million and highlight flows for Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, HSBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 28th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the outflows to be USD 65.0 million and highlight flows for Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, HSBC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 28th): Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, HSBC

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

Japan Post Bank - JPY234bn in Gains More than Offsets Cratering Net Interest Income

Japan Post Bank profit is entirely driven by gains on bonds, stocks, securities, and this can continue. It may though be considered low quality,...

Daniel Tabbush

CBA - The Applause Over Results Seem Misplaced, Considering Credit Metrics

CBA beat on earnings, but we believe that much of this was achieved through fairly low credit costs, despite what appears to be worsening credit...

Daniel Tabbush

ANZ - ACCC Denies ANZ's Takeover of Suncorp, May Be Positive for ANZ After All

ACCC denies ANZ takeover of Suncorp, which can be positive for ANZ. Focus now on its better credit metrics, less Australia lending than peers and...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Connect Flows (July): Meituan, Kuaishou, CNOOC, PetroChina, Tencent, BYD, HSBC, HKEx

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for July and highlight flows for Meituan, Kuaishou, CNOOC, PetroChina, Tencent, BYD, HSBC, HKEx.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 28th): Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, HSBC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, HSBC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)