Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Amman Mineral Internasional / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ), Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) and Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay cutting rates towards the latter half of this year.</li><li>The narrative surrounding ‘imminent’ rate cuts that dominated market perception near the end of last year has been thwarted by the Fed’s chair Jerome Powell suggesting that rates are likely to remain elevated, without the market completely discounting the possibility of further rate hikes.</li><li>The immediate fallout from the higher-than-expected March inflation figures led to a systematic drop in Asian currencies, especially for some ASEAN based currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, that have already been embattled by weakening currency against the dollar since the start of this year.</li></ul>

The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay cutting rates towards the latter half of this year.The narrative surrounding ‘imminent’ rate cuts that dominated market perception near the end of last year has been thwarted by the Fed’s chair Jerome Powell suggesting that rates are likely to remain elevated, without the market completely discounting the possibility of further rate hikes.The immediate fallout from the higher-than-expected March inflation figures led to a systematic drop in Asian currencies, especially for some ASEAN based currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, that have already been embattled by weakening currency against the dollar since the start of this year.

Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Prabowo looks to have scored a resounding victory in Indonesia's Presidential election, according to quick count results, with around 58% of the vote, which is positive from a visibility perspective.</li>
<li>Initial reaction suggests continuity from Jokowi's legacy, with concerns centred around potentially nationalistic policies and increased government borrowing in the future, which may pressurise Indonesia's budgetary position. </li>
<li>We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set on driving higher GDP growth next year.</li>
</ul>


Prabowo looks to have scored a resounding victory in Indonesia's Presidential election, according to quick count results, with around 58% of the vote, which is positive from a visibility perspective.
Initial reaction suggests continuity from Jokowi's legacy, with concerns centred around potentially nationalistic policies and increased government borrowing in the future, which may pressurise Indonesia's budgetary position. 
We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set on driving higher GDP growth next year.


Indonesia's Election - When the Music's Over?

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bank Mandiri is our top pick for its quality attributes, its premium and growing pre- and post-provision returns; Mandiri provides a better valuations to returns mix than Bank Central Asia</li>
<li>Bank Negara is the value pick with its low PE multiples, its attractive PEG ratio, whilst also improving pre- and post-provision returns with cost of risk well controlled</li>
<li>Bank Rakyat registered worsening pre- and post-provision returns in 4Q23, with cost of risk worsening; this reflects its heavily MSME focused loan mix which keeps structural cost of risk high</li>
</ul>


Bank Mandiri is our top pick for its quality attributes, its premium and growing pre- and post-provision returns; Mandiri provides a better valuations to returns mix than Bank Central Asia
Bank Negara is the value pick with its low PE multiples, its attractive PEG ratio, whilst also improving pre- and post-provision returns with cost of risk well controlled
Bank Rakyat registered worsening pre- and post-provision returns in 4Q23, with cost of risk worsening; this reflects its heavily MSME focused loan mix which keeps structural cost of risk high


Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

India BFSI - Long-Short - Equity Research Analyst

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">BMRI</a> is more profitable than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">BBNI</a>, less cyclical than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">BBRI</a>  and less expensive than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">BBCA</a>. This combination makes it an attractive play on the Indonesia credit growth story.</li>
<li>BMRI's FY23 results are a strong beat with industry-leading loan growth and strong ROE; BMRI also has the potential to aggressively grow its retail portfolio which still is likely under-appreciated</li>
<li>BMRI still trades at a discount to BBRI and has the potential to re-rate by another 20% in the near term, apart from the compounding driven by strong loan growth.</li>
</ul>



BMRI is more profitable than BBNI, less cyclical than BBRI  and less expensive than BBCA. This combination makes it an attractive play on the Indonesia credit growth story.
BMRI's FY23 results are a strong beat with industry-leading loan growth and strong ROE; BMRI also has the potential to aggressively grow its retail portfolio which still is likely under-appreciated
BMRI still trades at a discount to BBRI and has the potential to re-rate by another 20% in the near term, apart from the compounding driven by strong loan growth.


BMRI IJ Initiation: Growth at Reasonable Price!

Indonesia

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides commercial banking activities and its related services. The Bank also provides banking activities based on shariah principles.

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Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook

The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay...

Criat

Indonesia's Election - When the Music's Over?

We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....

Victor Galliano

BMRI IJ Initiation: Growth at Reasonable Price!

BMRI is a profitable, less cyclical, and inexpensive option compared to other Indonesian banks, making it an attractive investment. We also believe...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook

The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay...

Criat

Indonesia's Election - When the Music's Over?

We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

​Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....

Victor Galliano

BMRI IJ Initiation: Growth at Reasonable Price!

BMRI is a profitable, less cyclical, and inexpensive option compared to other Indonesian banks, making it an attractive investment. We also believe...

Raj S, CA, CFA

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....