ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

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<p>The overall Indonesian market has traded sideways this year, rising by only +2.45% YTD, despite a strong economic recovery in 2Q2021. This is mainly due to the Emergency PPKM measures put in place as the COVID-19 cases spiked in June, with strict measures coming into effect on 3rd July</p>
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<p>In fact, new cases peaked out in Indonesia on 15th July and have been on a steep decline since herd immunity and increased vaccinations helped to calm the situation.</p>
<p>Recent conversations with retailers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> reveal a significantly improved picture in August.</p>
<div>One positive impact from last year's pandemic is that companies in a number of different sectors have adopted operational policies that allow them to operate more efficiently even in a lockdown situation.</div>
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<div>With the Indonesian market massively under-owned by foreign investors, we see this recent market correction as an opportunity.  Foreigner positioning is at the lowest level in a decade, which suggests potential inflows as recovery comes through.</div>
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<div>We recommend buying banks, autos, retailers, cement, digital economy proxies, telcos as data enablers, and property as a reflation trade. We remain positive on healthcare but see some pricing risk for testing services and declining COVID-19 related revenues. </div>
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The overall Indonesian market has traded sideways this year, rising by only +2.45% YTD, despite a strong economic recovery in 2Q2021. This is mainly due to the Emergency PPKM measures put in place as the COVID-19 cases spiked in June, with strict measures coming into effect on 3rd July

In fact, new cases peaked out in Indonesia on 15th July and have been on a steep decline since herd immunity and increased vaccinations helped to calm the situation.
Recent conversations with retailers such as Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ), and Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) reveal a significantly improved picture in August.
One positive impact from last year's pandemic is that companies in a number of different sectors have adopted operational policies that allow them to operate more efficiently even in a lockdown situation.


With the Indonesian market massively under-owned by foreign investors, we see this recent market correction as an opportunity.  Foreigner positioning is at the lowest level in a decade, which suggests potential inflows as recovery comes through.

We recommend buying banks, autos, retailers, cement, digital economy proxies, telcos as data enablers, and property as a reflation trade. We remain positive on healthcare but see some pricing risk for testing services and declining COVID-19 related revenues. 










CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - The Stars Are Aligned

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sheng-siong-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6824:1" rel="noopener">Sheng Siong (SSG SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a>.</li>
<li>There was also a macro insight on the Singapore economy from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/manu-bhaskaran" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35" rel="noopener">Manu Bhaskaran</a> and a Thai banking sector post-results review from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/victor-galliano" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3251" rel="noopener">Victor Galliano</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krung-thai-bank-pub-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:298:1" rel="noopener">Krung Thai Bank</a> as top pick.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Thai Beverage (THBEV SP), Sheng Siong (SSG SP), and Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB).
There was also a macro insight on the Singapore economy from Manu Bhaskaran and a Thai banking sector post-results review from Victor Galliano with Krung Thai Bank as top pick.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - BCA Stands Out, Thai Bev, and Delta Electronics Fully Valued

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab Holdings (GRAB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sariguna-primatirta-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33584:1" rel="noopener">Sariguna Primatirta (CLEO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metrodata-electronic-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7184:1" rel="noopener">PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-selamat-sempurna-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10909:1" rel="noopener">Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>There were also macro insights on inflation in the Philippines and Malaysia and further insights On <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-world-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4600:1" rel="noopener">Best World International (BEST SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-ecocare-indo-pasifik-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43693:1" rel="noopener">Ecocare Indo Pasifik (HYGN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings</a>.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Grab Holdings (GRAB US), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ), Sariguna Primatirta (CLEO IJ), PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ), and Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ).
There were also macro insights on inflation in the Philippines and Malaysia and further insights On Best World International (BEST SP), Ecocare Indo Pasifik (HYGN IJ) and Malaysia Airports Holdings.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Grab's Lead, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, and CLEO's Pure Water

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.</li>
<li>Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. </li>
<li>Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.</li>
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Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.
Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. 
Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.


Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>Bank Negara stands out versus its peers for its value attributes, its attractive PEG ratio, and its improving pre- and post-provision returns with top NPL coverage relative to its peers</li>
<li>Bank Mandiri remains a buy for its quality attributes, its premium returns, and its well-controlled CoR; Mandiri has a far better valuations-to-returns mix than mega-cap BCA </li>
<li>Bank Rakyat comes off the sell list; it registered improved pre-provision returns in 1Q24, and although cost of risk worsened, post-provision returns were maintained along with its NPL coverage ratio</li>
</ul>


Bank Negara stands out versus its peers for its value attributes, its attractive PEG ratio, and its improving pre- and post-provision returns with top NPL coverage relative to its peers
Bank Mandiri remains a buy for its quality attributes, its premium returns, and its well-controlled CoR; Mandiri has a far better valuations-to-returns mix than mega-cap BCA 
Bank Rakyat comes off the sell list; it registered improved pre-provision returns in 1Q24, and although cost of risk worsened, post-provision returns were maintained along with its NPL coverage ratio


Indonesian Banks Screener; Negara Stands Out on Value, Growth Potential and Improving Return Trends

Indonesia

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides commercial banking activities and its related services. The Bank also provides banking activities based on shariah principles.

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Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - The Stars Are Aligned

Indonesia has been through the worse in terms of the recent covid surge and is now on the cusp of a steep recovery at a time when foreign weighting...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - BCA Stands Out, Thai Bev, and Delta Electronics Fully Valued

The past week saw insights on Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Thai Beverage (THBEV SP), Sheng Siong (SSG SP), and Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB).

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Grab's Lead, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, and CLEO's Pure Water

The past week saw insights on Grab Holdings (GRAB US), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ), Sariguna Primatirta (CLEO IJ), PT Metrodata Electronics...

Angus Mackintosh

Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Global credit growth data on a monthly basis, shows a vast range of cycles, with Thailand, Macau and HK the worse off. Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia...

Daniel Tabbush

Indonesian Banks Screener; Negara Stands Out on Value, Growth Potential and Improving Return Trends

Negara is our value pick, with improving returns and the best NPL coverage of the peer group, and we maintain Mandiri as a buy for its best...

Victor Galliano

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