Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

For all the macroeconomic concerns about the oversupply of housing in China and government’s push for supply-side reforms, the data on 13 major cities in China suggests fastest pace of inventory clearing for those cities in at least 5 years, driven by strong sales volume growth but also by lower land sales and new starts in several major cities.

For all the macroeconomic concerns about the oversupply of housing in China and government’s push for supply-side reforms, the data on 13 major cities in China suggests fastest pace of inventory clearing for those cities in at least 5 years, driven by strong sales volume growth but also by lower land sales and new starts in several major cities.

China Property: What Oversupply? Assessing Inventory Clearing Situation In Major 13 Cities

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning.  Home to large amounts of contracting heavy industries, specifically those targeted for supply reductions, Liaoning is home to maybe the largest default and restructuring in China in Dongbei Steel.  This is a vitally important issue and one that needs some background.Liaoning is in northeast China and home to large amounts of heavy industry like shipbuilding, coal…

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning.  Home to large amounts of contracting heavy industries, specifically those targeted for supply reductions, Liaoning is home to maybe the largest default and restructuring in China in Dongbei Steel.  This is a vitally important issue and one that needs some background.Liaoning is in northeast China and home to large amounts of heavy industry like shipbuilding, coal…

CBRC May Be Drawing Hard Line with Liaoning on Debt Levels

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid, consistent and detailed city-level data on property markets in China is largely limited to major cities but comparing some key metrics at a national level with those for Tier-1 and Tier-2 can give us a sense of respective share of the market for different categories of cities. While the four Tier-1 cities have a disproportionally higher share of new home…

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid, consistent and detailed city-level data on property markets in China is largely limited to major cities but comparing some key metrics at a national level with those for Tier-1 and Tier-2 can give us a sense of respective share of the market for different categories of cities. While the four Tier-1 cities have a disproportionally higher share of new home…

China Property By Tier - Where Is The Action?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators.  For a long time, there have been questions about the stated GDP growth figures, which appear too robust, considering the rise in bad loans and many other metrics. The figures in Hong Kong may prove a good barometer of the magnitude of change and the distress within China GDP growth.Hong Kong reported 3.2% real GDP growth in June 2015, dropping steadily through December 2015, but now it is down…

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators.  For a long time, there have been questions about the stated GDP growth figures, which appear too robust, considering the rise in bad loans and many other metrics. The figures in Hong Kong may prove a good barometer of the magnitude of change and the distress within China GDP growth.Hong Kong reported 3.2% real GDP growth in June 2015, dropping steadily through December 2015, but now it is down…

Hong Kong's Growth Suggests More Weakness in China

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016. Non-oil exports as well as non-oil imports are likely to have remained weak in June on a 3mma basis, continuing the trend seen in the first five months of 2016, reflecting the headwinds the economy continues to face on the domestic as well as external front.On a 3mma basis overall exports declined 3.6% y-o-y in June, compared to a rise of 0.9% y-o-y in…

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016. Non-oil exports as well as non-oil imports are likely to have remained weak in June on a 3mma basis, continuing the trend seen in the first five months of 2016, reflecting the headwinds the economy continues to face on the domestic as well as external front.On a 3mma basis overall exports declined 3.6% y-o-y in June, compared to a rise of 0.9% y-o-y in…

China: RMB to Continue to Face Downside Pressure Through 2016

China

CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, underwriting, investment banking, asset management, and investment consulting services.

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Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)

China Property: What Oversupply? Assessing Inventory Clearing Situation In Major 13 Cities

For all the macroeconomic concerns about the oversupply of housing in China and government’s push for supply-side reforms, the data on 13 major...

Robert Ciemniak

CBRC May Be Drawing Hard Line with Liaoning on Debt Levels

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning. Home to large...

Christopher Balding

China Property By Tier - Where Is The Action?

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid,...

Robert Ciemniak

Hong Kong's Growth Suggests More Weakness in China

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators. For a long time, there have been questions...

Daniel Tabbush

China: RMB to Continue to Face Downside Pressure Through 2016

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016....

Rajan Govil

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