Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of NT$18.6 billion, up 14.2% YoY and up ~1% QoQ.</li>
<li>No specific Q2'23 forecast provided but we fully expect a sequential decline and the end of a 13 quarter growth streak </li>
<li>YTD silicon carbide revenues have already exceeded full year 2022 revenues, albeit coming from a low base.</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of NT$18.6 billion, up 14.2% YoY and up ~1% QoQ.
No specific Q2'23 forecast provided but we fully expect a sequential decline and the end of a 13 quarter growth streak 
YTD silicon carbide revenues have already exceeded full year 2022 revenues, albeit coming from a low base.


Globalwafers Q1'23 Revenues up 1% QoQ, 14.2% YoY

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Choppy Session with SPX closing -0.2%;  Tech down again as reversal continues;  US 2Yr yield back above 4%, Alibaba +14% split to unlock value; Micron after hours-worst over?</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -1.0% vs Cash; USDJPY 130.9; US-Japan strikes deal on EV battery materials Under IRA; Japan's FTA fine with MSFT-ATVI, -ve Sony; Alibaba Split +ve Softbank</li>
<li>NUGGET. Panasonic - Potential beneficiary of new IRA related deal with the US. Could see IRA EV tax credit rise from ¥172bn/year to ¥228bn/year.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Choppy Session with SPX closing -0.2%;  Tech down again as reversal continues;  US 2Yr yield back above 4%, Alibaba +14% split to unlock value; Micron after hours-worst over?
JAPAN. NKY Futs -1.0% vs Cash; USDJPY 130.9; US-Japan strikes deal on EV battery materials Under IRA; Japan's FTA fine with MSFT-ATVI, -ve Sony; Alibaba Split +ve Softbank
NUGGET. Panasonic - Potential beneficiary of new IRA related deal with the US. Could see IRA EV tax credit rise from ¥172bn/year to ¥228bn/year.


Good Morning Japan |Choppy Equities; Weak Tech; NUGGET: Panasonic-New US Tax Credit Opportunity?

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Crisis Over !Bailouts from US to Europe, Stocks rally as Contagion fears wane; Major Banks rescue First Republic Bank; Swiss Central Bank protects Credit Suisse; ECB raises by 50bps</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 133.8; Expect Japan Equities to start the road to recovery with macro fears subsiding;  Japan-Korea move fwd on trade/security. </li>
<li>NUGGET. Orix - one of the Biggest Renewables Plays in Japan. Riding the Decarbonization MegaTrend</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Crisis Over !Bailouts from US to Europe, Stocks rally as Contagion fears wane; Major Banks rescue First Republic Bank; Swiss Central Bank protects Credit Suisse; ECB raises by 50bps
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 133.8; Expect Japan Equities to start the road to recovery with macro fears subsiding;  Japan-Korea move fwd on trade/security. 
NUGGET. Orix - one of the Biggest Renewables Plays in Japan. Riding the Decarbonization MegaTrend


Good Morning Japan |VICTORY Declared as Bailouts Rule; NUGGET: ORIX-Riding the Zero-Carbon MegaTrend

<ul>
<li>Worldwide silicon wafer shipments declined ~4% sequentially in Q4 2022. We anticipate a further 10% sequential decline in area shipments in Q1 2023</li>
<li>For 2023, we expect wafer shipments to decline by around 5% YoY with weakness in H1 offset by strength in demand in H2.</li>
<li>Despite the decline in area shipments, we expect the sector to remain strongly profitable, bolstered by the impact of Long Term Agreements and customer prepayments. </li>
</ul>


Worldwide silicon wafer shipments declined ~4% sequentially in Q4 2022. We anticipate a further 10% sequential decline in area shipments in Q1 2023
For 2023, we expect wafer shipments to decline by around 5% YoY with weakness in H1 offset by strength in demand in H2.
Despite the decline in area shipments, we expect the sector to remain strongly profitable, bolstered by the impact of Long Term Agreements and customer prepayments. 


Semiconductor Silicon Wafers Segment Q4 2022 Roundup & 2023 Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo (3101)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> has been added at a post-split PAF of 1. This reduces the passive buying on the stock by around a third.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy between 2.2-6.7 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 5-12 days of ADV on the deletes. There's a big funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



Oriental Land (4661), Renesas Electronics (6723) and Japan Airlines (9201) will replace Toyobo (3101), Nippon Light Metal (5703) and Toho Zinc (5707) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). 

Oriental Land (4661 JP) has been added at a post-split PAF of 1. This reduces the passive buying on the stock by around a third.
Passive trackers need to buy between 2.2-6.7 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 5-12 days of ADV on the deletes. There's a big funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Oriental Land, Renesas, JAL IN; Toyobo, Nippon LightMetal, Toho Zinc OUT

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

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Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)

Globalwafers Q1'23 Revenues up 1% QoQ, 14.2% YoY

Q1’23 revenues of NT$18.6 billion, up 14.2% YoY and up ~1% QoQ. No specific Q2'23 forecast provided but we fully expect a sequential decline and...

William Keating

Good Morning Japan |Choppy Equities; Weak Tech; NUGGET: Panasonic-New US Tax Credit Opportunity?

US Markets Choppy; Tech down again; Japan set to approve 114trill budget; US-Japan strikes deal on EV battery materials Under IRA; Japan's FTA fine...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |VICTORY Declared as Bailouts Rule; NUGGET: ORIX-Riding the Zero-Carbon MegaTrend

Expect Japan Equities to start the road to recovery with macro fears subsiding; Japan-Korea move fwd on trade/security. NUGGET: Orix - as a...

Mark Chadwick

Semiconductor Silicon Wafers Segment Q4 2022 Roundup & 2023 Outlook

Despite the anticipated 5% YoY decline in wafer area shipments, we expect the sector to remain strongly profitable, bolstered by the impact of Long...

William Keating

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Oriental Land, Renesas, JAL IN; Toyobo, Nippon LightMetal, Toho Zinc OUT

There are 3 adds and 3 deletes in March - mostly on expected line. The inclusion of Oriental Land at a lower than expected PAF could see some...

Brian Freitas

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