Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Swimmingly Down Under: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] reported FY 1H21 operating results. Although operating losses expectedly persist (AUD 79.2 mn vs. AUD 8.2 mn in 2H20), the numbers overall exhibited significant improvement: Financially, we see a light at the end of the tunnel for Afterpay on two fronts: a) receivables impairment increased AUD 25.4 mn (54.5%) HOH. As the global market recover post-vaccine, we’d expect impairments to decline; and b) fair value losses increased AUD 63.7 mn (58.6x). Simply excluding the fair value challenge, After pay would have operated at break-even;  and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 322% over the past nine  months since the stake announcement - -even after giving back some of its gains, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*Swimmingly Down Under: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] reported FY 1H21 operating results. Although operating losses expectedly persist (AUD 79.2 mn vs. AUD 8.2 mn in 2H20), the numbers overall exhibited significant improvement: Financially, we see a light at the end of the tunnel for Afterpay on two fronts: a) receivables impairment increased AUD 25.4 mn (54.5%) HOH. As the global market recover post-vaccine, we’d expect impairments to decline; and b) fair value losses increased AUD 63.7 mn (58.6x). Simply excluding the fair value challenge, After pay would have operated at break-even;  and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 322% over the past nine  months since the stake announcement - -even after giving back some of its gains, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways. 

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Bank Of Queensland / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-queensland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16606:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU)</a> plans to raise around US$276m (A$350m) via an institutional placement and another US$790m (A$1bn) via an entitlement offering to fund its purchase of ME bank. We have covered the prior placement as well in Nov 2019, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-of-queensland-placement-discount-looks-enticing-but-the-deal-appears-opportunistic" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank of Queensland Placement - Discount Looks Enticing but the Deal Appears Opportunistic.</a>

Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) plans to raise around US$276m (A$350m) via an institutional placement and another US$790m (A$1bn) via an entitlement offering to fund its purchase of ME bank. We have covered the prior placement as well in Nov 2019, Bank of Queensland Placement - Discount Looks Enticing but the Deal Appears Opportunistic.

Bank of Queensland Placement - Is Transformative but Might Not Be as Great in the Short-Term

*UK BNPL Review Should Add Structure: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] British business and the entire Buy-Now, Pay-Later (BNPL) segment is to be reviewed by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) – not dis-similar to those reviews conducted in Australia. We believe that the outcome will also be similar in that some form national structure and regulation will be put into place, and we remain encouraged by the Crown’s acknowledgement that the BNPL segment adds value; and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 550% over the past eight months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*UK BNPL Review Should Add Structure: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] British business and the entire Buy-Now, Pay-Later (BNPL) segment is to be reviewed by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) – not dis-similar to those reviews conducted in Australia. We believe that the outcome will also be similar in that some form national structure and regulation will be put into place, and we remain encouraged by the Crown’s acknowledgement that the BNPL segment adds value; and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 550% over the past eight months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*RBA Speech – A Positive For Aussie BNPL: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicated that the status-quo for the buy-now, pay-later (BNPL) sector is likely to continue into the foreseeable future – which is a significant positive for Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay]. Specifically, BNPL operators can still prevent merchants from passing on transaction fees;*Strong Momentum As We Head Into Holiday Season: Just as we head into the holiday season, Tencent’s Afterpay provided some strong key metrics in its latest media release as discussed in “Tencent Holdings – Father Christmas” note dated December 3, 2020.  What a magnificent six months this has been for Afterpay, and the next six months look to be even more transformational with operations beginning in the European Union, launches of banking products, and potentially the launch of the business in Asia (likely under the tutelage of Tencent); and*More Magic Fairy Dust: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to a superb return on investment of 400% over the past six months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*RBA Speech – A Positive For Aussie BNPL: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicated that the status-quo for the buy-now, pay-later (BNPL) sector is likely to continue into the foreseeable future – which is a significant positive for Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay]. Specifically, BNPL operators can still prevent merchants from passing on transaction fees;*Strong Momentum As We Head Into Holiday Season: Just as we head into the holiday season, Tencent’s Afterpay provided some strong key metrics in its latest media release as discussed in “Tencent Holdings – Father Christmas” note dated December 3, 2020.  What a magnificent six months this has been for Afterpay, and the next six months look to be even more transformational with operations beginning in the European Union, launches of banking products, and potentially the launch of the business in Asia (likely under the tutelage of Tencent); and*More Magic Fairy Dust: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to a superb return on investment of 400% over the past six months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

Australia

Westpac Banking Corporation offers general and savings banking services.  The Company provides investment portfolio management and advice, insurance services,  consumer finance, and money market services among other services.  Westpac Banking Corp. serves individuals, businesses, and corporations worldwide.

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Westpac Banking (WBC AU)

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we...

Vermilion Research

Tencent Holdings – Money to Burn

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent's Afterpay expectedly reported FY 1H21 operating losses, but the numbers overall exhibited significant improvement as it...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank of Queensland Placement - Is Transformative but Might Not Be as Great in the Short-Term

Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) plans to raise around US$276m via an institutional placement and another US$790m via an entitlement offering to fund...

Sumeet Singh

Tencent Holdings - UK Speed Bump

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent's Afterpay British business and BNPL segment being reviewed by FCA – not dis-similar to Australia. Review should lead to...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings – After The Speech

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Reserve Bank of Australia indicated that the status-quo for BNPL is likely to continue – which is a significant positive for...

Thomas J. Monaco

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