EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This note looks at the background of the recent Ankara bombing, the political situation in Turkey and its position in the region.The note starts with an analysis of who benefits from the political violence we have seen reintroduced to Turkish politics and how it is sharpening the differences between various groups inside Turkey (the final conclusion is al Qaeda benefits most, ignored by most).We then consider the political and religious background of the AKP and how it impacts its current actions and the efficacy of the security forces is then considered, finishing with some thoughts on the Battle of the Five Armies that we are now seeing in Syria and why Russia has now entered the fray.The conclusions are somewhat somber, but it feels like we may be close to a bottom in some key areas with a path to ruin unlikely and some level of political stability to return to Turkey with my core view still being an AKP majority for November 1st, with a CHP-coalition next most likely, both of which would cause the market and currency to rally in the next few weeks.

This note looks at the background of the recent Ankara bombing, the political situation in Turkey and its position in the region.The note starts with an analysis of who benefits from the political violence we have seen reintroduced to Turkish politics and how it is sharpening the differences between various groups inside Turkey (the final conclusion is al Qaeda benefits most, ignored by most).We then consider the political and religious background of the AKP and how it impacts its current actions and the efficacy of the security forces is then considered, finishing with some thoughts on the Battle of the Five Armies that we are now seeing in Syria and why Russia has now entered the fray.The conclusions are somewhat somber, but it feels like we may be close to a bottom in some key areas with a path to ruin unlikely and some level of political stability to return to Turkey with my core view still being an AKP majority for November 1st, with a CHP-coalition next most likely, both of which would cause the market and currency to rally in the next few weeks.

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Event-Driven

<ul><li>Milk over oil, long NZD short CAD, shaping up as an interesting carry trade&nbsp;</li><li>Some questions over whether the BoJ will ease at the end of the month </li><li>With USDJPY volatility collapsing, go long volatility via straddles or strangles</li></ul>

Milk over oil, long NZD short CAD, shaping up as an interesting carry trade&nbsp;Some questions over whether the BoJ will ease at the end of the month With USDJPY volatility collapsing, go long volatility via straddles or strangles

The Macro Take: A Matter Of Milk Over Oil

Despite recent weakness Gulf markets have proved to be some of the most resilient in EM in the face of collapsing oil prices. There is evidence that Qatar and Abu Dhabi in particular may provide a safe haven in turbulent markets and other regional markets look to be approaching a market even in a low oil price environment. Societal change has also started, potentially resulting in more resilient nations in the future.

Despite recent weakness Gulf markets have proved to be some of the most resilient in EM in the face of collapsing oil prices. There is evidence that Qatar and Abu Dhabi in particular may provide a safe haven in turbulent markets and other regional markets look to be approaching a market even in a low oil price environment. Societal change has also started, potentially resulting in more resilient nations in the future.

iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF / Event-Driven

<ul><li>Week ahead will see markets further digest the Fed statement &amp; potential 180 degree turn on a rate hike</li><li>Tactically&nbsp;the risk is to the upside in equities, especially in US equities (Nasdaq, tech, biotech)&nbsp;</li><li>Its a PMI themed week with flash PMI data across the globe, that will be heavily watched to see whether we are moving towards softer global growth</li><li>However key data point will be Fri&rsquo;s final GDP reading out of the US, currently expected to be +3.7%</li></ul>

Week ahead will see markets further digest the Fed statement &amp; potential 180 degree turn on a rate hikeTactically&nbsp;the risk is to the upside in equities, especially in US equities (Nasdaq, tech, biotech)&nbsp;Its a PMI themed week with flash PMI data across the globe, that will be heavily watched to see whether we are moving towards softer global growthHowever key data point will be Fri&rsquo;s final GDP reading out of the US, currently expected to be +3.7%

The Macro Take: Fed digestion/indigestion to filter into week, then its all about PMIs & US 2Q GDP

<ul><li>The Fed's surprising dovishness led to confusion in the markets overnight</li><li>The Fed has moved the goalposts (again) on factors that would drive it to raise rates, its getting downright ludicrous</li><li>There is now a clear risk that the Fed will not move on rates in 2015 &amp; 2016 is an election year where we have historically never had a fed hike</li><li>Fed inaction brings on more pressure to is now on the ECB and BoJ</li></ul>

The Fed's surprising dovishness led to confusion in the markets overnightThe Fed has moved the goalposts (again) on factors that would drive it to raise rates, its getting downright ludicrousThere is now a clear risk that the Fed will not move on rates in 2015 &amp; 2016 is an election year where we have historically never had a fed hikeFed inaction brings on more pressure to is now on the ECB and BoJ

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

Ankara: Cui Bono?

This note looks at the background of the recent Ankara bombing, the political situation in Turkey and its position in the region.The note starts...

Emad Mostaque

The Macro Take: A Matter Of Milk Over Oil

Milk over oil, long NZD short CAD, shaping up as an interesting carry trade Some questions over whether the BoJ will ease at the end of the month...

Kay Van-Petersen

Will the Gulf remain resilient?

Despite recent weakness Gulf markets have proved to be some of the most resilient in EM in the face of collapsing oil prices. There is evidence...

Emad Mostaque

The Macro Take: Fed digestion/indigestion to filter into week, then its all about PMIs & US 2Q GDP

Week ahead will see markets further digest the Fed statement & potential 180 degree turn on a rate hike Tactically the risk is to the upside...

Kay Van-Petersen

The Fed Just Missed Their Hiking Window

The Fed's surprising dovishness led to confusion in the markets overnight The Fed has moved the goalposts (again) on factors that would drive it...

Kay Van-Petersen