Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Wednesday's rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday's sell-off.  All the major averages remain in downtrends and there continues to be an absence of bottoming patterns. Concerns that we have highlighted over the past several months continue to lead us to our intact cautious outlook.  In this report we highlight important technical levels and indicators, and highlight a bright spot for investors within the Consumer Staples Sector.

Wednesday's rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday's sell-off.  All the major averages remain in downtrends and there continues to be an absence of bottoming patterns. Concerns that we have highlighted over the past several months continue to lead us to our intact cautious outlook.  In this report we highlight important technical levels and indicators, and highlight a bright spot for investors within the Consumer Staples Sector.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Short press below S&amp;P 2,600 working well but the pace of the decline warns of a bigger macro bear cycle ahead in 2019.Near term we are moving into oversold territory in core sectors featured in this webcast as the S&amp;P approaches our first key target near 2,350. Given risk of a bounce post Christmas we are placing a tactical reversal target above this level.Support levels to work into are outlined as well as tactical bounce targets. Given key support breaks that macro picture continues to favor shorting rally attempts as our cycle work suggests we see more pain after the New Year.EEM outperform versus the S&amp;P is gaining traction and with a USD roll would see additional fuel.MSCI Asia x Japan perform call over US equities is also taking shape. Buy support targets outlined. If one intends to trade a year-end would licking bounce then Asia/EM's is the space to participate.

Short press below S&amp;P 2,600 working well but the pace of the decline warns of a bigger macro bear cycle ahead in 2019.Near term we are moving into oversold territory in core sectors featured in this webcast as the S&amp;P approaches our first key target near 2,350. Given risk of a bounce post Christmas we are placing a tactical reversal target above this level.Support levels to work into are outlined as well as tactical bounce targets. Given key support breaks that macro picture continues to favor shorting rally attempts as our cycle work suggests we see more pain after the New Year.EEM outperform versus the S&amp;P is gaining traction and with a USD roll would see additional fuel.MSCI Asia x Japan perform call over US equities is also taking shape. Buy support targets outlined. If one intends to trade a year-end would licking bounce then Asia/EM's is the space to participate.

SPX Tactical Reversal Level for Bounce with Asia/EM's the Perform

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US: Stocks fall on political turmoil despite positive noises from the Fed with a dovish rate hike, a reduction in expected 2019 hikes and positive trends on employment and inflation.</li>
<li>Russia: Unexpected 25 bps rate hike in the face of higher inflation in Nov. Watch for impact of lower oil prices in coming quarters.</li>
<li>Turkey: Economic developments remain negative. The outlook for retail sales is poor as the economy in general is faltering.</li>
<li>Indonesia: Trade deficit in November. Exports down 3.3%; imports up 11.68%. This disappointing performance could be the beginning of a trend.</li>
</ul>


US: Stocks fall on political turmoil despite positive noises from the Fed with a dovish rate hike, a reduction in expected 2019 hikes and positive trends on employment and inflation.
Russia: Unexpected 25 bps rate hike in the face of higher inflation in Nov. Watch for impact of lower oil prices in coming quarters.
Turkey: Economic developments remain negative. The outlook for retail sales is poor as the economy in general is faltering.
Indonesia: Trade deficit in November. Exports down 3.3%; imports up 11.68%. This disappointing performance could be the beginning of a trend.


RRG Global Macro - US Fed Positive Outlook - Stocks Fall.  Politics Take Over from Fundamentals

<ul>
<li>Trump's Early 'Victory Lap' Angers Beijing - Brace for More Market Fall-out on Trade Tensions</li>
<li>Russia: World Bank expects 1.5% growth in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. Views Russia as well-protected from external shocks, including oil prices.</li>
<li>Turkey: Turkey’s economic growth is expected to fall to 2.0 percent in the third quarter of the year and hit 2.8 percent for all of 2018.</li>
<li>South Africa: South Africa’s economy grew 2.2% in the third quarter after contracting by a revised 0.4% in the second and has now exited the recession. 
</li>
</ul>


Trump's Early 'Victory Lap' Angers Beijing - Brace for More Market Fall-out on Trade Tensions
Russia: World Bank expects 1.5% growth in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. Views Russia as well-protected from external shocks, including oil prices.
Turkey: Turkey’s economic growth is expected to fall to 2.0 percent in the third quarter of the year and hit 2.8 percent for all of 2018.
South Africa: South Africa’s economy grew 2.2% in the third quarter after contracting by a revised 0.4% in the second and has now exited the recession.  



RRG Global Macro - Beijing Not Going to Change in 90 Days - On a Collision Course with Washington

Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and the U.S.-China 90-day ceasefire agreement have drastically diminished (for now) concerns over two major sources of investor angst: (1) the pace of Fed tightenings and (2) trade policy. The S&amp;P 500 has opened trading today near the 2,817 resistance, a key level we are monitoring. The impending breakout - or breakdown below ~2,600 support, if resistance holds - will be key in determining where the market goes next.  In this report we highlight actionable Industry ETFs, broad EM ETFs and actionable Int’l ETFs, as well as sector rating changes: we are downgrading Technology (XLK) and upgrading Financials (XLF).

Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and the U.S.-China 90-day ceasefire agreement have drastically diminished (for now) concerns over two major sources of investor angst: (1) the pace of Fed tightenings and (2) trade policy. The S&amp;P 500 has opened trading today near the 2,817 resistance, a key level we are monitoring. The impending breakout - or breakdown below ~2,600 support, if resistance holds - will be key in determining where the market goes next.  In this report we highlight actionable Industry ETFs, broad EM ETFs and actionable Int’l ETFs, as well as sector rating changes: we are downgrading Technology (XLK) and upgrading Financials (XLF).

Global ETF Synopsis: Highlighting Technical Trends Across the ETF Universe

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

Bearish U.S. Outlook Intact

Wednesday's rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday's sell-off. All the major...

Vermilion Research

SPX Tactical Reversal Level for Bounce with Asia/EM's the Perform

Short press below S&P 2,600 working well but the pace of the decline warns of a bigger macro bear cycle ahead in 2019.Near term we are moving...

Thomas Schroeder

RRG Global Macro - US Fed Positive Outlook - Stocks Fall. Politics Take Over from Fundamentals

US: Stocks fall on political turmoil despite positive noises from the Fed with a dovish rate hike, a reduction in expected 2019 hikes and positive...

David Riedel

RRG Global Macro - Beijing Not Going to Change in 90 Days - On a Collision Course with Washington

Trump's Early 'Victory Lap' Angers Beijing - Brace for More Market Fall-out on Trade Tensions Russia: World Bank expects 1.5% growth in 2019 and...

David Riedel

Global ETF Synopsis: Highlighting Technical Trends Across the ETF Universe

Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and the U.S.-China 90-day ceasefire agreement have drastically diminished (for now) concerns over two major...

Vermilion Research