Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Global miners see China as a source of stability for future iron ore demand due to increased infrastructure investment this year and the country’s ongoing urbanization drive.</li><li>The words of optimism come as iron ore prices have dropped over the past few months, with Chinese steelmakers taking a hit from the slowdown in construction by the country’s troubled developers.</li><li>As China has stepped up infrastructure investment to bolster economic growth, the world’s biggest iron ore miners said the stimulus would put a floor under short-term steel demand.</li></ul>

Global miners see China as a source of stability for future iron ore demand due to increased infrastructure investment this year and the country’s ongoing urbanization drive.The words of optimism come as iron ore prices have dropped over the past few months, with Chinese steelmakers taking a hit from the slowdown in construction by the country’s troubled developers.As China has stepped up infrastructure investment to bolster economic growth, the world’s biggest iron ore miners said the stimulus would put a floor under short-term steel demand.

Global Mining Heavyweights See China Propping Up Iron Ore Demand

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> has corrected due to the iron ore price dropping. China's massive stimulus could provide an impetus to demand in 6-8 months and revive pricing.</li>
<li>Substantial correction of steel margins is halted. Iron ore the inventory at the mills and ports has now stabilized. We believe this provides support to pricing at these levels.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> yields at the spot have dropped to 12% FCF and 9% dividend yields, but we believe there is an upside to this.</li>
</ul>



Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) has corrected due to the iron ore price dropping. China's massive stimulus could provide an impetus to demand in 6-8 months and revive pricing.
Substantial correction of steel margins is halted. Iron ore the inventory at the mills and ports has now stabilized. We believe this provides support to pricing at these levels.

Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) yields at the spot have dropped to 12% FCF and 9% dividend yields, but we believe there is an upside to this.


China Stimulus: Big Loan Growth Numbers, Good for FMG?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> has an improving yield outlook, as iron ore prices are rising due to a shortage of iron ore, with supplies from Russia and Ukraine being affected.</li>
<li>We expect the company to pay a 2.3 AUD/share dividend based on a 70% payout ratio, implying an 11% dividend yield. The company has low net gearing at 10%.</li>
<li>Upsides could emerge from China stimulating its economy to counter the lockdowns and measures taken to improve their property market which will in turn boost steel production. </li>
</ul>



Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) has an improving yield outlook, as iron ore prices are rising due to a shortage of iron ore, with supplies from Russia and Ukraine being affected.
We expect the company to pay a 2.3 AUD/share dividend based on a 70% payout ratio, implying an 11% dividend yield. The company has low net gearing at 10%.
Upsides could emerge from China stimulating its economy to counter the lockdowns and measures taken to improve their property market which will in turn boost steel production. 


Fortescue Metals Group: 11% Dividend Yield for FY22

<ul>
<li>Over the last three years, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> has paid shareholders 6.5 AUD/share of dividends, equivalent to 34% of today's share price. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> at a 130$/ton iron ore price implies a 12% dividend yield. China's recent easing measures to boost property give us confidence in iron ore prices.</li>
<li>Fortescue's strong net cash balance sheet position ( 2.6 bn USD ) provides a decent margin of safety. </li>
</ul>


Over the last three years, Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) has paid shareholders 6.5 AUD/share of dividends, equivalent to 34% of today's share price. 

Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) at a 130$/ton iron ore price implies a 12% dividend yield. China's recent easing measures to boost property give us confidence in iron ore prices.
Fortescue's strong net cash balance sheet position ( 2.6 bn USD ) provides a decent margin of safety. 


Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

What is the key question? Are we at the start of another 12-year bull market in value stocks? That's the duration of the last period when the value style of investing out performed growth in the Asia Pacific region.What is the evidence? Over the last 12-months, the balance between growth and value reversed the dominance that growth has held for much of the last 10-years. Whilst in Q1 2021, we remained cautious about a full declaration that the trend is reversing, we feel that the process is indeed underway and that a multi-year reversal is in progress. This is not just positive for value investors, but increasingly so for Small-Mid Cap investors.Why read this screening note? Q1 2021’s screen performance trumped the market delivering relative outperformance of 26.2%. Of the 27 names presented, 18 stocks delivered positive share price performance with an average increase of 21%, whilst the remaining 9 stocks declined 9.4 %. What is presented? 56 names appear in our Q3 2021 Asia Pacific list providing plenty of opportunity for investors. The average EV/FCF multiple of 5.2x in Q3 2021 compared to 6.3x in Q1 2021 and 5.6x in Q2 2020. The average Free Cashflow multiple on equity is 4.6x in Q3 2021 versus 4.2x in Q1 2021.

What is the key question? Are we at the start of another 12-year bull market in value stocks? That's the duration of the last period when the value style of investing out performed growth in the Asia Pacific region.What is the evidence? Over the last 12-months, the balance between growth and value reversed the dominance that growth has held for much of the last 10-years. Whilst in Q1 2021, we remained cautious about a full declaration that the trend is reversing, we feel that the process is indeed underway and that a multi-year reversal is in progress. This is not just positive for value investors, but increasingly so for Small-Mid Cap investors.Why read this screening note? Q1 2021’s screen performance trumped the market delivering relative outperformance of 26.2%. Of the 27 names presented, 18 stocks delivered positive share price performance with an average increase of 21%, whilst the remaining 9 stocks declined 9.4 %. What is presented? 56 names appear in our Q3 2021 Asia Pacific list providing plenty of opportunity for investors. The average EV/FCF multiple of 5.2x in Q3 2021 compared to 6.3x in Q1 2021 and 5.6x in Q2 2020. The average Free Cashflow multiple on equity is 4.6x in Q3 2021 versus 4.2x in Q1 2021.

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 All Cap Screening - Free Cashflow (FCF)

Australia

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

South32 Limited operates as a diversified metals and mining company. The Company produces alumina, aluminum, coal, manganese, nickel, silver, lead, and zinc. South32 conducts business globally.

Glencore plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups, metals and minerals, energy products, and agricultural products. Glencore offers its products and services around the world.

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

OZ Minerals Ltd. is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. The Company owns and operates the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold project located in South Australia and has a number of equity interests in listed resource companies.

Pilbara Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company owns mineral tenements in the west Pilbara region of Western Australia where it explores for iron ore, gold and base metals, particularly copper and nickel.

Yancoal Australia Limited provides coal mining services. The Company mines, processes, and sells pure-coal, metallurgical coal, and more. Yancoal Australia also exports its products.

MMG Limited is a mid-tier global resources company which explores, develops and mines base metal projects around the world.  The Company currently owns and operates the Century, Golden Grove and Rosebery mines in Australia, the Kinsevere mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the LXML Sepon mine in Laos.

Evolution Mining Ltd is a gold exploration company with operations in Western Australia. The Company owns the gold mines -Cracow, Edna May, Mt Rawdon, and Pajingo - and the Mt Carlton development project.

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. manufactures aluminum products. The Company's aluminum products consist of molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum busbars.

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of iron and steel products including cold rolled plates and coils, hot rolled plates and coils, seamless steel tubes, high-speed wire rods, and steel billets.  The company also operates in related energy production businesses.

Nucor Corporation manufactures steel products.  The Company's products include carbon and alloy steel, steel joists, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel grinding balls, steel bearing products, and metal buildingsystems. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap.

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

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Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)

Global Mining Heavyweights See China Propping Up Iron Ore Demand

Global miners see China as a source of stability for future iron ore demand due to increased infrastructure investment this year and the country’s...

Caixin Global

China Stimulus: Big Loan Growth Numbers, Good for FMG?

Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) yields at the spot have dropped to 12% FCF and 9% dividend yields, but we believe there is an upside to this as China...

Sameer Taneja

Fortescue Metals Group: 11% Dividend Yield for FY22

Fortescue provides investors with an 11% dividend yield (based on a 135$/ton spot price). Current prices are much higher at 160$/ton and have...

Sameer Taneja

Fortescue > 12% Dividend Yield Play

Fortescue Metals is a beneficiary of China loosening. It trades at a 6.8x PE with a 12% div yield, and a historical record of returning almost 34%...

Sameer Taneja

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 All Cap Screening - Free Cashflow (FCF)

Is it the start of a 12-year bull market in value? That's the duration of the last period when APAC value outperformed growth. Q'1s FCF screen...

David Lepper

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