IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

BrainBees Solutions / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brainbees-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36115:1" rel="noopener">FirstCry (0172540D IN)</a>, India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for mothers’, babies’ and kids’ products, has filed for a US$700 million IPO. </li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brainbees-solutions-firstcry-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:125537" rel="noopener">Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on the worrying trend of India's KPIs, margin pressures, cash burn, and deteriorating balance sheet strength. </li>
</ul>



FirstCry (0172540D IN), India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for mothers’, babies’ and kids’ products, has filed for a US$700 million IPO. 
In Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on the worrying trend of India's KPIs, margin pressures, cash burn, and deteriorating balance sheet strength. 


Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bear Case

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gaming sector: NPPA deleted the page of &lt;Online Games Governing Measure (Opinion Seeking Draft)&gt;(/)</li>
<li>JD/BABA/PDD: JD to be exclusive platform for CCTV 2024 Spring Festival Gala (+/-/-)</li>
<li>PDD/BABA/AMZN : Temu to launch semi-managed model in March (+/-/-)</li>
</ul>


Gaming sector: NPPA deleted the page of &lt;Online Games Governing Measure (Opinion Seeking Draft)&gt;(/)
JD/BABA/PDD: JD to be exclusive platform for CCTV 2024 Spring Festival Gala (+/-/-)
PDD/BABA/AMZN : Temu to launch semi-managed model in March (+/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:Gaming Sector/JD/BABA/PDD/BABA/AMZN

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brainbees-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36115:1" rel="noopener">FirstCry (0172540D IN)</a>, India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for mothers’, babies’ and kids’ products, has filed for a US$700 million IPO. </li>
<li>The substantial shareholders are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> Vision Fund (25.55% of shares), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> (10.98%), Premji Invest (10.36%) and Supam Maheshwari - founder and CEO (5.95%).</li>
<li>The bull case rests on growing addressable markets, strong market positioning, robust GMV growth and strong organic growth.   </li>
</ul>



FirstCry (0172540D IN), India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for mothers’, babies’ and kids’ products, has filed for a US$700 million IPO. 
The substantial shareholders are Softbank Group (9984 JP) Vision Fund (25.55% of shares), Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) (10.98%), Premji Invest (10.36%) and Supam Maheshwari - founder and CEO (5.95%).
The bull case rests on growing addressable markets, strong market positioning, robust GMV growth and strong organic growth.   


Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bull Case

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Despite the rise and rise of the Magnificent 7, clues that this has made the S&amp;P 500 Index, and hence US stocks riskier, are limited.</li>
<li>However, looking at betas against other stock market indices and other asset classes reveals that risk associated with US stocks is trending slightly higher.</li>
<li>The key takeaway from this analysis, however, is that Treasuries - showing higher volatility and less diversification benefits - ARE quickly losing their appeal within a multi-asset portfolio.</li>
</ul>


Despite the rise and rise of the Magnificent 7, clues that this has made the S&amp;P 500 Index, and hence US stocks riskier, are limited.
However, looking at betas against other stock market indices and other asset classes reveals that risk associated with US stocks is trending slightly higher.
The key takeaway from this analysis, however, is that Treasuries - showing higher volatility and less diversification benefits - ARE quickly losing their appeal within a multi-asset portfolio.


Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

<ul>
<li>TCOM/1024 HK/3690 HK/780 HK: Ctrip cooperate with Kuaishou to promote traveling products(+/+/-/-)</li>
<li>PDD/ZTO/1519 HK: PDD partners with ZTO and J&amp;T for upcoming “Open during Spring Festival” event (+/+/+)</li>
<li>PDD/ SHEIN/ AMZN/ SE/ CPNG/ MELI: Temu planning to add 3P model (+/-)</li>
</ul>


TCOM/1024 HK/3690 HK/780 HK: Ctrip cooperate with Kuaishou to promote traveling products(+/+/-/-)
PDD/ZTO/1519 HK: PDD partners with ZTO and J&amp;T for upcoming “Open during Spring Festival” event (+/+/+)
PDD/ SHEIN/ AMZN/ SE/ CPNG/ MELI: Temu planning to add 3P model (+/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:TCOM/1024 HK/3690 HK/780 HK/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/CPNG/MELI

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on the worrying trend of India's KPIs, margin pressures, cash burn, and deteriorating balance sheet strength.

Arun George

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:Gaming Sector/JD/BABA/PDD/BABA/AMZN

NPPA deletes online gaming measure page; JD becomes exclusive platform for CCTV Gala; Temu to launch semi-managed model in March.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on growing addressable markets, strong market positioning, robust GMV growth and strong organic growth.

Arun George

Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

The quick answer is that the Magnificent 7 are not a significant threat to the risk-return characteristics of your portfolio. However, the case for...

Jeroen Blokland

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:TCOM/1024 HK/3690 HK/780 HK/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/CPNG/MELI

Ctrip teams up with Kuaishou to boost travel offerings; PDD collaborates with ZTO and J&T for Spring Festival event; and Temu considers adding 3P...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on the worrying trend of India's KPIs, margin pressures, cash burn, and deteriorating balance sheet strength.

Arun George

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:Gaming Sector/JD/BABA/PDD/BABA/AMZN

​NPPA deletes online gaming measure page; JD becomes exclusive platform for CCTV Gala; Temu to launch semi-managed model in March.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on growing addressable markets, strong market positioning, robust GMV growth and strong organic growth.

Arun George

Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

The quick answer is that the Magnificent 7 are not a significant threat to the risk-return characteristics of your portfolio. However, the case for...

Jeroen Blokland

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:TCOM/1024 HK/3690 HK/780 HK/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/CPNG/MELI

​Ctrip teams up with Kuaishou to boost travel offerings; PDD collaborates with ZTO and J&T for Spring Festival event; and Temu considers adding 3P...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NPPA deletes online gaming measure page; JD becomes exclusive platform for CCTV Gala; Temu to launch semi-managed model in March.

Ctrip teams up with Kuaishou to boost travel offerings; PDD collaborates with ZTO and J&T for Spring Festival event; and Temu considers adding 3P...