Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

This report highlights actionable set ups from predominately European, developed markets, and is supportive of our view that Europe is bottoming, a viewpoint that remains far from consensus. Within Europe, we put a spotlight on Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40. Today’s recommendations are primarily from cyclical Sectors, however European Consumer Staples also exhibits bottoming RS.

This report highlights actionable set ups from predominately European, developed markets, and is supportive of our view that Europe is bottoming, a viewpoint that remains far from consensus. Within Europe, we put a spotlight on Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40. Today’s recommendations are primarily from cyclical Sectors, however European Consumer Staples also exhibits bottoming RS. 

Developed Markets Chart Book: Europe in Focus

We believe the S&amp;P 500, STOXX Europe 600, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and MSCI China are pulling back to support at their prior breakout levels -- levels we believe will hold. Tech remains our favorite Sector globally. Additional attractive cyclical areas in which to add exposure at current levels include Financials in Europe, autos and auto parts stocks, and casinos and gaming in Macau... see report for a technical appraisal of all major markets and a collection of actionable stocks.

We believe the S&amp;P 500, STOXX Europe 600, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and MSCI China are pulling back to support at their prior breakout levels -- levels we believe will hold. Tech remains our favorite Sector globally. Additional attractive cyclical areas in which to add exposure at current levels include Financials in Europe, autos and auto parts stocks, and casinos and gaming in Macau... see report for a technical appraisal of all major markets and a collection of actionable stocks.

Global Equity Strategy: Major Indexes at Logical Support

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward.  In additional to highlighting important technical levels across major markets, we reiterate our recommendation to add exposure to global financials, and highlight a number of attractive Financial stocks, with an emphasis on UK and European names.

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward.  In additional to highlighting important technical levels across major markets, we reiterate our recommendation to add exposure to global financials, and highlight a number of attractive Financial stocks, with an emphasis on UK and European names. 

Global Equity Strategy: EU and UK Financial Stocks Are Attractive

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.  

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF intervention, but where volatility is mainly concentrated in the GBP (see graphic) not yen, intervening in USDJPY might not be so useful.  Moreover, right while BOJ is supplying dollars via auction it is possible there is a desire not to intervene as a cross-current to this operation.That said, given skittish markets and yen’s status as a risk haven, MOF may stay on high intervention alert for quite some time.  It is a good idea to keep watching speculative positioning and volatility.Given upcoming elections, there is probably reason for a lot of political pressure on the MOF to intervene; still the focus is diverted from Abenomics to developments abroad, which might mean a fairly positive outcome for Abe.  Expect further justifications for delay in the consumption tax hike and fiscal spending package already planned.

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF intervention, but where volatility is mainly concentrated in the GBP (see graphic) not yen, intervening in USDJPY might not be so useful.  Moreover, right while BOJ is supplying dollars via auction it is possible there is a desire not to intervene as a cross-current to this operation.That said, given skittish markets and yen’s status as a risk haven, MOF may stay on high intervention alert for quite some time.  It is a good idea to keep watching speculative positioning and volatility.Given upcoming elections, there is probably reason for a lot of political pressure on the MOF to intervene; still the focus is diverted from Abenomics to developments abroad, which might mean a fairly positive outcome for Abe.  Expect further justifications for delay in the consumption tax hike and fiscal spending package already planned.

United Kingdom

3i Group plc is an international investor focused on private equity, infrastructure and debt management. The Company's investments are located across multiple continents through local investment teams in Europe, Asia and North America.

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3i Group PLC (III LN)

Developed Markets Chart Book: Europe in Focus

This report highlights actionable set ups from predominately European, developed markets, and is supportive of our view that Europe is bottoming, a...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Major Indexes at Logical Support

We believe the S&P 500, STOXX Europe 600, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and MSCI China are pulling back to support at their prior breakout levels --...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: EU and UK Financial Stocks Are Attractive

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward. ...

Vermilion Research

The UK Economy - After Brexit

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Macro Chart Focus: Brexit and the Yen

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF...

Naomi Fink

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