Value Investing in my Circle of Competence, Hurdle Rate

Hurdle Rate

Value Investing in my Circle of Competence

The name “Hurdle rate” was inspired by none other than Mark Leonard of Constellation Software, and their prolific use of a fixed hurdle (discount) rate for their investments. Had you invested into Constellation Software at the time of their IPO as an Australian Investor you would of seen your investment multiply by >100x or (>35% CAGR), an enviable record (Updated March 2023).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>This is the first blog post on the Hurdle Rate website, a series of blog posts which I intend to cover specific topics rather than unit trust investments.</li><li>From time to time I may consider company deep dives, but predominately I want to make these posts more specific in nature around the global landscape in professional and financial services.</li><li>Today’s post is going to talk about the recent bombshell that is Xero’s price hikes, a controversial topic here in Australia for the accounting industry, and a perfect start to the blogroll given my background and focus.</li></ul>

This is the first blog post on the Hurdle Rate website, a series of blog posts which I intend to cover specific topics rather than unit trust investments.From time to time I may consider company deep dives, but predominately I want to make these posts more specific in nature around the global landscape in professional and financial services.Today’s post is going to talk about the recent bombshell that is Xero’s price hikes, a controversial topic here in Australia for the accounting industry, and a perfect start to the blogroll given my background and focus.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez</a> plans to raise around US$160m in its Australian IPO.</li>
<li>GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Guzman Y Gomez plans to raise around US$160m in its Australian IPO.
GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Guzman Y Gomez IPO - The Negatives - Lawsuits and Management Churn

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nextdc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8570:1" rel="noopener">Nextdc Ltd (NXT AU)</a> aims to raise around US$366m via a fully underwritten institutional placement, along with another US$133m via a non-underwritten SPP.</li>
<li>The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, most of which have done ok. Although this one appears to be a bit opportunistic.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Nextdc Ltd (NXT AU) aims to raise around US$366m via a fully underwritten institutional placement, along with another US$133m via a non-underwritten SPP.
The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, most of which have done ok. Although this one appears to be a bit opportunistic.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


NEXTDC Placement - Good Track Record but Seems Opportunistic

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip (ZIP AU)</a> plans to raise around US$145m in order to repay its outstanding debt.</li>
<li>The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past and has a mixed track record.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Zip (ZIP AU) plans to raise around US$145m in order to repay its outstanding debt.
The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past and has a mixed track record.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


ZIP Placement - Worth a Small Punt, at Best

New Zealand

Xero Limited offers an online accounting system.  The software features bank transaction importing, a cashbook, a general ledger, invoicing, accounts receivable, accounts payable, financial reporting, and management of expense claims.

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Xero Ltd (XRO AU)

Xero's Price Hikes

This is the first blog post on the Hurdle Rate website, a series of blog posts which I intend to cover specific topics rather than unit trust...

Hurdle Rate

Guzman Y Gomez IPO - The Negatives - Lawsuits and Management Churn

Guzman Y Gomez plans to raise around US$160m in its Australian IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

NEXTDC Placement - Good Track Record but Seems Opportunistic

Nextdc Ltd (NXT AU) aims to raise around US$366m via a fully underwritten institutional placement, along with another US$133m via a non...

Sumeet Singh

ZIP Placement - Worth a Small Punt, at Best

Zip (ZIP AU) plans to raise around US$145m in order to repay its outstanding debt. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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