'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/814/original/naakt-jpg.png?1583659197" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121814"></figure>Source  • <a href="https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/</a>
</div><blockquote><a href="http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2001ar/2001letter.html" target="_blank" aria-describedby="external-disclaimer" rel="noopener">“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “</a>- Warren Buffett</blockquote>WHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights that will in the spirit of Buffett's famous quip, attempt to highlight those Japanese companies that at the greatest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. We will focus on three factors - the Audit Score, the Altman Z-Score and Cumulative Cash Flows - that individually, and in combination, can highlight those companies most at risk.<hr><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/877/original/2020-03-09_07-18-54.png?1583705968" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121877"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>PART 1: AUDIT SCORE - This factor is 'hiding in plain sight'. Since 2003, the Auditors' Opinion has been available in a format that allows 'parsing' into a database format and the creation of an 'Audit Score'. Although often a coincident rather than a leading indicator, by cumulating the score from year to year, patterns can emerge that highlight unfolding risks as in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1" rel="noopener">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a> above.


Source  • https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “- Warren BuffettWHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights that will in the spirit of Buffett's famous quip, attempt to highlight those Japanese companies that at the greatest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. We will focus on three factors - the Audit Score, the Altman Z-Score and Cumulative Cash Flows - that individually, and in combination, can highlight those companies most at risk.Source • Japan AnalyticsPART 1: AUDIT SCORE - This factor is 'hiding in plain sight'. Since 2003, the Auditors' Opinion has been available in a format that allows 'parsing' into a database format and the creation of an 'Audit Score'. Although often a coincident rather than a leading indicator, by cumulating the score from year to year, patterns can emerge that highlight unfolding risks as in the case of Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) above.   

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who's Swimming Naked? > Part 1: Audit Score

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

After the worst week in US equity markets in a long time, with sharply rising equity volatility causing risk parity funds and their ilk to shed what looked like $100bn+ of delta, and S&amp;P500 ETFs to see $20bn+ redeemed (amid fears of the possible uncontrollable spread of COVID-19 coronavirus), there were strong rumours of imminent coordinated central bank action over the weekend to prove that governments around the world were willing to act quickly to counter fears of economic weakness.We didn't get that. We got suggestions from Italy they would produce a stimulus package. German lawmakers tussled over whether or not stimulus was appropriate. EU officials high and low suggested that for the moment EU-level spending was inappropriate, some US politicians got upset that coronavirus test kits for the uninsured cost $3000+ (they don't), other politicians suggested $3000 was fine because the free market determined the price, and a president suggested the entire coronavirus thing was simultaneously a terrible blow to China and "fake news" - a hoax by the "deep state" and Democrats to try to injure his presidency (whatever else will be remembered by history in the decades to come, there will be memes).One central bank on Monday, however, did its thing.The BOJ governor issued an inter-meeting statement for the first time in many years. It was a simple statement, which said very little. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/375/original/Screenshot%202020-03-04%20at%2010.08.27%20PM.png?1583330921" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121375"></figure>Given an ongoing program of ETF buying and JGB YCC/QQE, it was not clear what this meant, however, by day-end, it WAS clear.<div class="content-highlight">The BOJ had symbolically stepped in to buy ¥100.2bn of ETFs - its largest one-day purchase program in many years. </div>That leaves us with a "What Next" question. Discussion ensues below.

After the worst week in US equity markets in a long time, with sharply rising equity volatility causing risk parity funds and their ilk to shed what looked like $100bn+ of delta, and S&amp;P500 ETFs to see $20bn+ redeemed (amid fears of the possible uncontrollable spread of COVID-19 coronavirus), there were strong rumours of imminent coordinated central bank action over the weekend to prove that governments around the world were willing to act quickly to counter fears of economic weakness.We didn't get that. We got suggestions from Italy they would produce a stimulus package. German lawmakers tussled over whether or not stimulus was appropriate. EU officials high and low suggested that for the moment EU-level spending was inappropriate, some US politicians got upset that coronavirus test kits for the uninsured cost $3000+ (they don't), other politicians suggested $3000 was fine because the free market determined the price, and a president suggested the entire coronavirus thing was simultaneously a terrible blow to China and "fake news" - a hoax by the "deep state" and Democrats to try to injure his presidency (whatever else will be remembered by history in the decades to come, there will be memes).One central bank on Monday, however, did its thing.The BOJ governor issued an inter-meeting statement for the first time in many years. It was a simple statement, which said very little. Given an ongoing program of ETF buying and JGB YCC/QQE, it was not clear what this meant, however, by day-end, it WAS clear.The BOJ had symbolically stepped in to buy ¥100.2bn of ETFs - its largest one-day purchase program in many years. That leaves us with a "What Next" question. Discussion ensues below.

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Forensic Accounting

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a forensic analysis tool that scores companies across Developed Asia on their accounting risk. We use 25+ accounting parameters in our framework to come up with an accounting risk score. Our tool is based in Excel and is linked dynamically to Capital IQ for fetching latest data.
Insight Flow
<ol>
<li>Forensic Analysis Framework</li>
<li>Excel Model
<ol>
<li>How to Download and Use the Tool</li>
<li>Steps to Run the Model</li>
</ol>
</li>
<li>Target Universe</li>
<li>Companies with Highest Accounting Risk </li>
<li>Summary Statistics from our Analysis</li>
<li>Key Model Limitations and Risks</li>
<li>Appendix
<ol>
<li>List of Companies in our Target Universe with Accounting Risk Score &gt;= 8</li>
<li>Glossary</li>
<li>Snapshot of Capital IQ Screener Used for Filtering Universe</li>
<li>Switch Formula Calculation Option in Excel</li>
<li>Refresh Worksheet Option in Capital IQ Plugin</li>
</ol>
</li>
</ol>
<div class="content-highlight">
What's Original?
Over time with experience and taking cues from past financial shenanigans, we have developed a proprietary quantitative framework for identifying accounting irregularities. This framework comprises of 25+ accounting parameters and takes into account 10 years of historical data to assess the quality of accounting.
</div>

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a forensic analysis tool that scores companies across Developed Asia on their accounting risk. We use 25+ accounting parameters in our framework to come up with an accounting risk score. Our tool is based in Excel and is linked dynamically to Capital IQ for fetching latest data.
Insight Flow

Forensic Analysis Framework
Excel Model

How to Download and Use the Tool
Steps to Run the Model


Target Universe
Companies with Highest Accounting Risk 
Summary Statistics from our Analysis
Key Model Limitations and Risks
Appendix

List of Companies in our Target Universe with Accounting Risk Score &gt;= 8
Glossary
Snapshot of Capital IQ Screener Used for Filtering Universe
Switch Formula Calculation Option in Excel
Refresh Worksheet Option in Capital IQ Plugin




What's Original?
Over time with experience and taking cues from past financial shenanigans, we have developed a proprietary quantitative framework for identifying accounting irregularities. This framework comprises of 25+ accounting parameters and takes into account 10 years of historical data to assess the quality of accounting.


A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/403/original/2020-02-18_08-44-22.png?1581983074" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118403"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/404/original/2020-02-18_08-42-56.png?1581983098" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118404"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>THREE-YEAR LOW - With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone (5108 JP)</a>'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our Results Sore - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the Forecast/Revision Score to rise above the Results Score. Forecast/Revision Score peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the Results Score.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The Results Score cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/405/original/2020-02-18_09-29-28.png?1581985792" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118405"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>LEADING INDICATOR - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the Forecast/Revision Score. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are lagging indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. SCORING METHODOLOGY - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-<ul>
<li>Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.</li>
<li>The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.</li>
<li>The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score.</li>
<li>
All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into Sector, Peer Group and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.
<hr>
• SECTOR SCORES •
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/410/original/2020-02-18_09-55-29.png?1581987489" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118410"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
In the DETAIL Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The Metals Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. Technology Hardware appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the Information Technology Sector has replaced the Internet and Telecoms Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. 
</li>
</ul>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our Results Sore - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the Forecast/Revision Score to rise above the Results Score. Forecast/Revision Score peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the Results Score.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The Results Score cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. Source • Japan AnalyticsLEADING INDICATOR - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the Forecast/Revision Score. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are lagging indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. SCORING METHODOLOGY - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-
Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.
The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.
The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score.

All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into Sector, Peer Group and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.

• SECTOR SCORES •
Source • Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The Metals Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. Technology Hardware appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the Information Technology Sector has replaced the Internet and Telecoms Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. 



🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/740/original/2020-02-07_03-39-22.png?1581019080" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116740"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>INTO THE 'RED' - As predicted, our Results Score dipped into negative territory yesterday, declining by 56 basis points to -0.21. Of the 65 large-cap results, only ten companies had positive qoq changes in Results Score, while seventeen saw double-digit declines. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> did well to limit its quarterly year-on-year changes in Revenue and OP to -3%, and they are forecasting similar declines against TTM numbers for the full year. The Forecast/Revision Score added six basis points driven primarily by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido (4911 JP)</a> overly optimistic initial forecast for FY2020. 'Mr Market' meanwhile is content to bid up share prices to close to the recent highs, and 8% below the January 2018 peak, when the Results Score was 7.54. <hr>• SECTOR TIMELINE •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/741/original/2020-02-07_03-45-05.png?1581019946" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116741"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - The majority of Sectors saw lower Results &amp; Revision Scores yesterday, with Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco being the exception due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>'s stable topline performance and better-than-expected 2020 forecast. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> decline into the red at the OP level and full-year downward revision took the Machinery Sector lower, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seibu-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:458:1" rel="noopener">Seibu (9024 JP)</a> was the negative driver for Multi-Industry. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1" rel="noopener">Terumo (4543 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus (7733 JP)</a> fuelled the decline in Healthcare and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener">Fujifilm (4901 JP)</a> did the same for Technology Hardware.

Source • Japan AnalyticsINTO THE 'RED' - As predicted, our Results Score dipped into negative territory yesterday, declining by 56 basis points to -0.21. Of the 65 large-cap results, only ten companies had positive qoq changes in Results Score, while seventeen saw double-digit declines. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) did well to limit its quarterly year-on-year changes in Revenue and OP to -3%, and they are forecasting similar declines against TTM numbers for the full year. The Forecast/Revision Score added six basis points driven primarily by Shiseido (4911 JP) overly optimistic initial forecast for FY2020. 'Mr Market' meanwhile is content to bid up share prices to close to the recent highs, and 8% below the January 2018 peak, when the Results Score was 7.54. • SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - The majority of Sectors saw lower Results &amp; Revision Scores yesterday, with Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco being the exception due to Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)'s stable topline performance and better-than-expected 2020 forecast. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) decline into the red at the OP level and full-year downward revision took the Machinery Sector lower, while Seibu (9024 JP) was the negative driver for Multi-Industry. Terumo (4543 JP) and Olympus (7733 JP) fuelled the decline in Healthcare and Fujifilm (4901 JP) did the same for Technology Hardware. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 6th February ▲ 2914 4911 6406 ▼ 9024 4901 7951

Japan

OLYMPUS CORPORATION manufactures optoelectronic products.  The Company's products include cameras, video sets, endoscopes for medicine and industrial use, microscopes, analytical equipment, office communication systems, laseroptical scanners, and ionic printers.

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Olympus Corp (7733 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who's Swimming Naked? > Part 1: Audit Score

“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “- Warren BuffettWHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights...

Campbell Gunn

Coronavirus QE, the BOJ, and ETF Buying

After the worst week in US equity markets in a long time, with sharply rising equity volatility causing risk parity funds and their ilk to shed...

Travis Lundy

A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a forensic analysis tool that scores companies across Developed Asia on their accounting risk. We use...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

THREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 6th February ▲ 2914 4911 6406 ▼ 9024 4901 7951

INTO THE 'RED' - As predicted, our Results Score dipped into negative territory yesterday, declining by 56 basis points to -0.21. Of the 65...

Campbell Gunn

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