Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>Based on the current data, I see two low-conviction ADDs and two low-conviction DELs.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in June 2024.
Based on the current data, I see two low-conviction ADDs and two low-conviction DELs.


Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Flow Expectations: Many Reasons to Follow the Developments Closely

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We synthesize current and historical data on fund positioning with recent manager activity to accurately assess sentiment for each stock within our MSCI China coverage.</li>
<li>We have identified eight stocks that are currently positioned at the extreme ends of their historical position ranges, or have experienced significant shifts in fund ownership in recent months.</li>
<li>Momentum in Contemporary Amperex Technology and JD.com turns south, whilst Fuyao Glass Industry Group and Zhongji Innolight power to new highs.</li>
</ul>


We synthesize current and historical data on fund positioning with recent manager activity to accurately assess sentiment for each stock within our MSCI China coverage.
We have identified eight stocks that are currently positioned at the extreme ends of their historical position ranges, or have experienced significant shifts in fund ownership in recent months.
Momentum in Contemporary Amperex Technology and JD.com turns south, whilst Fuyao Glass Industry Group and Zhongji Innolight power to new highs.


MSCI China Funds:  Extremes in Positioning & Momentum

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The earnings decline at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH)</a> is well in place for the past three years and including the last 12 months and YTD. </li>
<li>A worsening China should see accelerated weakness at Ping An Insurance: bond mark downs, less product sales, lower bank contribution, falling investment returns as rates are cut.</li>
<li>Earnings risk perspective: profit RMB79bn in LTM against bond holdings of RMB2,622bn putting its bonds/profit at 33x. Bonds to capital is 2.9x: book value risk too.</li>
</ul>


The earnings decline at Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH) is well in place for the past three years and including the last 12 months and YTD. 
A worsening China should see accelerated weakness at Ping An Insurance: bond mark downs, less product sales, lower bank contribution, falling investment returns as rates are cut.
Earnings risk perspective: profit RMB79bn in LTM against bond holdings of RMB2,622bn putting its bonds/profit at 33x. Bonds to capital is 2.9x: book value risk too.


Ping An Insurance - Worsening Profit for Some Years, Can Accelerate with Corporate Bond Impairments

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 12th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight Hong Kong short weekly changes in Citic Sec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 12th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight Hong Kong short weekly changes in Citic Sec.


Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>PICC P&amp;C's Q3 underwriting profitability deteriorated due to typhoon/catastrophe-related losses in both motor and non-motor business.</li>
<li>Samsung Life's new business growth momentum continued in Q3'23; new business CSM margin slightly improved QoQ.</li>
<li>Prudential disclosed limited details in its Q3 results but we can see the growth trend of new business volume and profits continuing in the quarter.</li>
</ul>


PICC P&amp;C's Q3 underwriting profitability deteriorated due to typhoon/catastrophe-related losses in both motor and non-motor business.
Samsung Life's new business growth momentum continued in Q3'23; new business CSM margin slightly improved QoQ.
Prudential disclosed limited details in its Q3 results but we can see the growth trend of new business volume and profits continuing in the quarter.


APAC Insurers Series (#4): How We See the 3 Insurance Stocks in 2024

China

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

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PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK)

Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Flow Expectations: Many Reasons to Follow the Developments Closely

The reference period for HSCEI June 2024 review ended on 31st March 2024 and my expectations for index changes remain unchanged since I published...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MSCI China Funds: Extremes in Positioning & Momentum

Momentum in Contemporary Amperex Technology and JD.com turns south, whilst Fuyao Glass Industry Group and Zhongji Innolight power to new highs.

Steven Holden

Ping An Insurance - Worsening Profit for Some Years, Can Accelerate with Corporate Bond Impairments

Ping An Insurance can see meaningful risk to profit and book value from mark downs in its corporate bonds with a weak China economy.

Daniel Tabbush

HK Short Interest Weekly: Citic Sec

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 12th and highlight short interest changes in Citic Sec.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

APAC Insurers Series (#4): How We See the 3 Insurance Stocks in 2024

While we see limited upside in both PICC P&C and Samsung Life, we believe Prudential is the only one out of the three insurance stocks we...

Alec Tseung

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