Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for January includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for January includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.  

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - January 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

As part of its recently held <a href="http://docomo-openhouse.jp/2020/en/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">open house on network R&amp;D</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> has released a white paper on 5G evolution and 6G.  The key takeaways from DoCoMo’s report are teething issues with 5G as network launches start plus a rough sketch of what mobile networks will look like beyond 2030.  That NTT DoCoMo issued this report is interesting because it highlights its position as the mobile operator with by far the most robust R&amp;D capability globally and a key partner for equipment vendors in determining mobile technology evolution. Unfortunately, the benefits of leadership are hard to quantify. On one hand, DoCoMo will be the first to 5G in Japan but even new entrant Rakuten with no existing network today will have 5G capability in the next few years.

As part of its recently held open house on network R&amp;D, NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) has released a white paper on 5G evolution and 6G.  The key takeaways from DoCoMo’s report are teething issues with 5G as network launches start plus a rough sketch of what mobile networks will look like beyond 2030.  That NTT DoCoMo issued this report is interesting because it highlights its position as the mobile operator with by far the most robust R&amp;D capability globally and a key partner for equipment vendors in determining mobile technology evolution. Unfortunately, the benefits of leadership are hard to quantify. On one hand, DoCoMo will be the first to 5G in Japan but even new entrant Rakuten with no existing network today will have 5G capability in the next few years. 

NTT DoCoMo Flags up Its 6G Vision. Yes, that Is a Six!

Equity Bottom-Up

Rakuten held a press conference on its mobile business today including confirmation of the April 2020 commercial launch, an expansion of its beta "free supporters program" trail from 5K to 25K users, an update on the network status, the introduction of its original smart device (Rakuten Mini) and details on its retail concept store. On the aggregate, the timeline for launch and a more frank discussion on network coverage issues are largely built into market expectations and without an announcement on service pricing, investor opinions likely don't move very much. We do think that their retail concept and the new Rakuten Mini handset, both described in detail today,  could provide Rakuten competitive advantages or at the very least offset some of the concerns about lack of an iPhone. The update on mobile was overshadowed by concerns on the core business as third-party merchants filed a petition with the Fair Trade Commission (FTC) over plans to offer free shipping. That too is a mobile issue as eCommerce cash flow is what pays the bills for a mobile launch.

Rakuten held a press conference on its mobile business today including confirmation of the April 2020 commercial launch, an expansion of its beta "free supporters program" trail from 5K to 25K users, an update on the network status, the introduction of its original smart device (Rakuten Mini) and details on its retail concept store. On the aggregate, the timeline for launch and a more frank discussion on network coverage issues are largely built into market expectations and without an announcement on service pricing, investor opinions likely don't move very much. We do think that their retail concept and the new Rakuten Mini handset, both described in detail today,  could provide Rakuten competitive advantages or at the very least offset some of the concerns about lack of an iPhone. The update on mobile was overshadowed by concerns on the core business as third-party merchants filed a petition with the Fair Trade Commission (FTC) over plans to offer free shipping. That too is a mobile issue as eCommerce cash flow is what pays the bills for a mobile launch.  

Rakuten: Positive Update on Mobile Overshadowed by E-Commerce Merchant Woes

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However, asset bubbles continue to grow. </li>
<li>Risk concentrations are increasing. </li>
</ul>


Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However, asset bubbles continue to grow. 
Risk concentrations are increasing. 


Event-Driven

Sprint shares now trade at a 43% discount to the implied value based on the original merger terms, down from &lt;10% last July when the DoJ approved the deal and from 27% when we last wrote about this in November. Based on our range of outcomes, that appears to imply a 60%+ probability that the TMUS merger will not pass muster in the courts. That ruling should be out in February and whilst we do not have any special insight (nor does anyone which is why deal odds are priced like this) we did think it worthwhile to look at the state of play. TMUS should trade steadily no matter the result whilst Sprint is almost assuredly mis-priced as markets give meaningful weight to both sides of a binary outcome.

Sprint shares now trade at a 43% discount to the implied value based on the original merger terms, down from &lt;10% last July when the DoJ approved the deal and from 27% when we last wrote about this in November. Based on our range of outcomes, that appears to imply a 60%+ probability that the TMUS merger will not pass muster in the courts. That ruling should be out in February and whilst we do not have any special insight (nor does anyone which is why deal odds are priced like this) we did think it worthwhile to look at the state of play. TMUS should trade steadily no matter the result whilst Sprint is almost assuredly mis-priced as markets give meaningful weight to both sides of a binary outcome.

Sprint/T-Mobile: Markets Building in a 60% Probability Deal Is Rejected

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - January 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for January includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

NTT DoCoMo Flags up Its 6G Vision. Yes, that Is a Six!

As part of its recently held open house on network R&D, NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) has released a white paper on 5G evolution and 6G. The key...

Kirk Boodry

Rakuten: Positive Update on Mobile Overshadowed by E-Commerce Merchant Woes

Rakuten held a press conference on its mobile business today including confirmation of the April 2020 commercial launch, an expansion of its beta...

Kirk Boodry

Global Stall Speed Growth

Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Sprint/T-Mobile: Markets Building in a 60% Probability Deal Is Rejected

Sprint shares now trade at a 43% discount to the implied value based on the original merger terms, down from <10% last July when the DoJ...

Kirk Boodry

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