Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

After monetising stakes in Alibaba, TMobile and Softbank Corp, the next piggybank in Softbank Group’s crosshairs appears to be Arm. We have commented previously about the deteriorating financial performance and personnel departures from the company under Softbank’s watch and question whether the company was ever worth what Softbank paid for it, even in better times. Nevertheless, the company remains in an attractive space and has had some positive news flow recently. More interestingly, it appears to have offloaded the IoT-related business onto parent Softbank. We go through the details below.

After monetising stakes in Alibaba, TMobile and Softbank Corp, the next piggybank in Softbank Group’s crosshairs appears to be Arm. We have commented previously about the deteriorating financial performance and personnel departures from the company under Softbank’s watch and question whether the company was ever worth what Softbank paid for it, even in better times. Nevertheless, the company remains in an attractive space and has had some positive news flow recently. More interestingly, it appears to have offloaded the IoT-related business onto parent Softbank. We go through the details below.

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In June, the government’s rebate scheme that simultaneously aimed to reduce the burden of its October 2019 tax increase while also promoting cashless payments, came to an end. But there’s more to come.The initial scheme will be replaced in September by an entirely new one, this time to promote the My Number citizen registration system alongside, again, cashless payments.The new scheme requires consumers to choose one provider only. This will push payment providers to compete with ever more ferocity and, by this time next year, we are likely to see just one or two winners and a whole bunch of losers.

In June, the government’s rebate scheme that simultaneously aimed to reduce the burden of its October 2019 tax increase while also promoting cashless payments, came to an end. But there’s more to come.The initial scheme will be replaced in September by an entirely new one, this time to promote the My Number citizen registration system alongside, again, cashless payments.The new scheme requires consumers to choose one provider only. This will push payment providers to compete with ever more ferocity and, by this time next year, we are likely to see just one or two winners and a whole bunch of losers.

Government Fuels Japan Cashless Payments War

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> has witnessed a sharp rise from our recent 4,400 long entry and nearing the ideal 6,600 target representing the top end of the intermediate expanding wedge range. We made a bull call near lower wedge support at 2,800.Recent breakout point at 5,900 will act as pivot support that will induce a reaction back upward.RSI shows synergy with dual tops in this zone to mark key cycle tops which fits with a top near 6,600. RSI is also forming a rising wedge that has a better than 70% probability of breaking down amid bear divergence.Macro pivots are 6,800 and 4,900 as the expanding wedge defines a clear range (6,800 and 2,500).

Softbank Group (9984 JP) has witnessed a sharp rise from our recent 4,400 long entry and nearing the ideal 6,600 target representing the top end of the intermediate expanding wedge range. We made a bull call near lower wedge support at 2,800.Recent breakout point at 5,900 will act as pivot support that will induce a reaction back upward.RSI shows synergy with dual tops in this zone to mark key cycle tops which fits with a top near 6,600. RSI is also forming a rising wedge that has a better than 70% probability of breaking down amid bear divergence.Macro pivots are 6,800 and 4,900 as the expanding wedge defines a clear range (6,800 and 2,500).

Softbank Reverse from Long to Short Target

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Following the recent string of high-profile fraud scandals, from Luckin Coffee in China to Wirecard in Germany, our In-Focus section this month deals with our framework for discerning fraud in Asian companies. We also give an overview of common techniques used to manipulate financial information in Asian markets, and present case studies of alleged or confirmed fraud drawn from our coverage universe. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  Following the recent string of high-profile fraud scandals, from Luckin Coffee in China to Wirecard in Germany, our In-Focus section this month deals with our framework for discerning fraud in Asian companies. We also give an overview of common techniques used to manipulate financial information in Asian markets, and present case studies of alleged or confirmed fraud drawn from our coverage universe.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Framework For Discerning Fraud In Asian Companies - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of June includes a summary of our recommendations. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of June includes a summary of our recommendations. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - June 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Softbank – Lining Up an Arm IPO

After monetising stakes in Alibaba, TMobile and Softbank Corp, the next piggybank in Softbank Group’s crosshairs appears to be Arm. We have...

Mio Kato

Government Fuels Japan Cashless Payments War

In June, the government’s rebate scheme that simultaneously aimed to reduce the burden of its October 2019 tax increase while also promoting...

Michael Causton

Softbank Reverse from Long to Short Target

Softbank Group (9984 JP) has witnessed a sharp rise from our recent 4,400 long entry and nearing the ideal 6,600 target representing the top end of...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia HY Monthly - Framework For Discerning Fraud In Asian Companies - Lucror Analytics

Following the recent string of high-profile fraud scandals, from Luckin Coffee in China to Wirecard in Germany, our In-Focus section this month...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - June 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of June includes a summary of our recommendations. The report also features relative-value...

Lucror Analytics

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