Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After stellar growth in 2020, the e-commerce market grew much slower in 2021 but still outpaced all other channels and set the second highest increase in four years.</li>
<li>At this rate, by 2025 e-commerce should become the largest retail channel, overtaking chain stores.</li>
<li>Japan’s easy access to retail stores means shops aren’t about to disappear anytime soon and Japan will become a model for omnichannel retailing with stores still playing a key role.</li>
</ul>


After stellar growth in 2020, the e-commerce market grew much slower in 2021 but still outpaced all other channels and set the second highest increase in four years.
At this rate, by 2025 e-commerce should become the largest retail channel, overtaking chain stores.
Japan’s easy access to retail stores means shops aren’t about to disappear anytime soon and Japan will become a model for omnichannel retailing with stores still playing a key role.


Japanese E-Commerce Big Review: Still Taking Market Share as Omnichannel Becomes the Norm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aeon’s main GMS arm, Aeon Retail, is on track to post a net profit in FY2023 after a 4-fold increase in OP in 1H2022.</li>
<li>This is largely thanks to stronger sales and footfall and the success of efficiency measures introduced over the past few years.</li>
<li>The improvements look sustainable and should lead to improved results for Aeon longer-term adding to the already good results from the drugstore, real estate and overseas businesses.</li>
</ul>


Aeon’s main GMS arm, Aeon Retail, is on track to post a net profit in FY2023 after a 4-fold increase in OP in 1H2022.
This is largely thanks to stronger sales and footfall and the success of efficiency measures introduced over the past few years.
The improvements look sustainable and should lead to improved results for Aeon longer-term adding to the already good results from the drugstore, real estate and overseas businesses.


<ul>
<li>Inflation remains the biggest headwind but most retail formats will see growth in 2023 with e-commerce expected to become the largest channel in the next 18 months.</li>
<li>Supermarkets are ripe for consolidation as new competitors emerge from the discount sector and online while convenience stores will consolidate further in a saturated sector.</li>
<li>Department stores will rebound further but only the leading firms will survive in a contracting sector.</li>
</ul>


Inflation remains the biggest headwind but most retail formats will see growth in 2023 with e-commerce expected to become the largest channel in the next 18 months.
Supermarkets are ripe for consolidation as new competitors emerge from the discount sector and online while convenience stores will consolidate further in a saturated sector.
Department stores will rebound further but only the leading firms will survive in a contracting sector.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX +0.4%DoD +2.7%WoW; Semi run continues with SOX +0.4%DoD +6.2%WoW; Beta and Growth the big WoW winners;  Fed's Bostic leans to 25bp hike; Tesla cuts prices</li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futs -1.3% vs Cash;  JGB 10Yr Yld hits 0.512% despite BOJ 10trn yen buying; USDJPY up to127.87;  DECARBONIZATION: Resonac (Showa Denko) expansion; Toray  expansion; METI CCS roadmap</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET: Slowing EV sales in China ? Maybe, but its still the largest EV market in the world. We see Nidec as the best way to play.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX +0.4%DoD +2.7%WoW; Semi run continues with SOX +0.4%DoD +6.2%WoW; Beta and Growth the big WoW winners;  Fed's Bostic leans to 25bp hike; Tesla cuts prices
JAPAN:  NKY Futs -1.3% vs Cash;  JGB 10Yr Yld hits 0.512% despite BOJ 10trn yen buying; USDJPY up to127.87;  DECARBONIZATION: Resonac (Showa Denko) expansion; Toray  expansion; METI CCS roadmap
DAILY NUGGET: Slowing EV sales in China ? Maybe, but its still the largest EV market in the world. We see Nidec as the best way to play.


Good Morning Japan |Fed 1 Inflation 0, Fed Wins; Equity Bid Continues; Telsa Cuts Px; BOJ in Focus

<ul>
<li>Nitori dominates in home decor and furniture but now wants to become a top 10 fashion retailer through its N+ chain targeting older women. </li>
<li>It will raise the rate of new stores to 30 a year and then to up to 100 a year as it reaches scale. </li>
<li>Will it be the Uniqlo for the middle-aged? If so it could own a chunk of a segment worth an estimated ¥2.5 trillion.</li>
</ul>


Nitori dominates in home decor and furniture but now wants to become a top 10 fashion retailer through its N+ chain targeting older women. 
It will raise the rate of new stores to 30 a year and then to up to 100 a year as it reaches scale. 
Will it be the Uniqlo for the middle-aged? If so it could own a chunk of a segment worth an estimated ¥2.5 trillion.


Nitori to Ramp up N+ Clothing Chain – ¥500 Billion in New Sales?

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

Aeon Retail: Profits Again After 4 Years

Aeon looks set to see consistent and sustained improvements in operating profit following the news that the core Aeon Retail division, long a drag...

Michael Causton

Outlook for Japanese Retail in 2023

Most Japanese retailers can look forward to a good year in 2023 but there will be challenges for formats like supermarkets where consolidation is...

Michael Causton

Good Morning Japan |Fed 1 Inflation 0, Fed Wins; Equity Bid Continues; Telsa Cuts Px; BOJ in Focus

Fed 1 Inflation 0, Fed Wins; Equity Bid Continues; Telsa Cuts Px (positive Panasonic); BOJ in Focus. Expect the BOJ to lift JGB buying and do what...

Mark Chadwick

Nitori to Ramp up N+ Clothing Chain – ¥500 Billion in New Sales?

Nitori has been underestimated before and now apparel retailers believe Nitori doesn't have the experience to take them on. They are wrong. It...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese E-Commerce Big Review: Still Taking Market Share as Omnichannel Becomes the Norm

Japanese e-commerce continues to take more share from other retail channels but Japan is developing a sophisticated omnichannel model where stores...

Michael Causton

Aeon Retail: Profits Again After 4 Years

Aeon looks set to see consistent and sustained improvements in operating profit following the news that the core Aeon Retail division, long a drag...

Michael Causton

Outlook for Japanese Retail in 2023

Most Japanese retailers can look forward to a good year in 2023 but there will be challenges for formats like supermarkets where consolidation is...

Michael Causton

Good Morning Japan |Fed 1 Inflation 0, Fed Wins; Equity Bid Continues; Telsa Cuts Px; BOJ in Focus

Fed 1 Inflation 0, Fed Wins; Equity Bid Continues; Telsa Cuts Px (positive Panasonic); BOJ in Focus. Expect the BOJ to lift JGB buying and do what...

Mark Chadwick

Nitori to Ramp up N+ Clothing Chain – ¥500 Billion in New Sales?

Nitori has been underestimated before and now apparel retailers believe Nitori doesn't have the experience to take them on. They are wrong. It...

Michael Causton