IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97757" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97798" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case</a>.  </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
We previously discussed the IPO in Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case and Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case.  
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. We would participate in the IPO.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97757" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on bottom quartile gross and operating margin, mid-tier FCF generation and unusual cash collection cycle.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
In Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on bottom quartile gross and operating margin, mid-tier FCF generation and unusual cash collection cycle.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP) is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.
TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Wafer-Thin Margins

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.</li>
<li>Trial aims to act as a one-stop shopping store where a consumer can buy whatever they want at a great price. Trial’s basic pricing strategy is Every Day Low Price.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile revenue growth, encouraging same-store sales growth, solid margin profile and cash generation.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
Trial aims to act as a one-stop shopping store where a consumer can buy whatever they want at a great price. Trial’s basic pricing strategy is Every Day Low Price.
The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile revenue growth, encouraging same-store sales growth, solid margin profile and cash generation.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>'s is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP)'s is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.
TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - The Positives - Steady past Performance with an Expanding Footprint

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights

Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. We would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on bottom quartile gross and operating margin, mid-tier FCF generation and unusual cash collection cycle.

Arun George

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Wafer-Thin Margins

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile revenue growth, encouraging same-store sales growth, solid margin profile and cash generation.

Arun George

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - The Positives - Steady past Performance with an Expanding Footprint

Trial Holdings (5882 JP)'s is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)