Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. </li>
<li>NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. </li>
<li>Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. </li>
</ul>


It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. 
NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. 
Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. 


Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Thai equities lack growth and innovation. Big corporations continue to have unfair advantages in terms of access to bank financing and business opportunities.</li>
<li>Thailand is an aging society with rising income disparity and a stalling education system. Hence, we have questioned how Thailand will escape the middle income trap in the near term.</li>
<li>We expect more disruptions and policy blunders which could impair Thai stock performance. We do not believe Thailand can correct its cause in the near term.</li>
</ul>


Thai equities lack growth and innovation. Big corporations continue to have unfair advantages in terms of access to bank financing and business opportunities.
Thailand is an aging society with rising income disparity and a stalling education system. Hence, we have questioned how Thailand will escape the middle income trap in the near term.
We expect more disruptions and policy blunders which could impair Thai stock performance. We do not believe Thailand can correct its cause in the near term.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-credit-bank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40192:1" rel="noopener">Thai Credit Bank</a> finally ended Thailand's long dry spell, although it wasn't a happy ending.</li>
<li>For placements, REITs appear to be coming back to life with rates now having peaked.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Thai Credit Bank finally ended Thailand's long dry spell, although it wasn't a happy ending.
For placements, REITs appear to be coming back to life with rates now having peaked.


ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2024) - Nissan/Renault, Metcash, Digital Core, SBFC, Thai Credit, Park Hotel

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

Thai Credit Bank PCL / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-credit-bank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40192:1" rel="noopener">Thai Credit Bank PCL (3674238Z TB)</a> raised around US$281m in its Thailand IPO.</li>
<li>TCB is a commercial bank that focuses on providing business loans to small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), nano loans and micro credits to merchants, and home loans for individual customers.</li>
<li>We had looked at the firm’s past performance and shared our thoughts on TCB’s valuation in earlier notes. In this note, we will look at the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Thai Credit Bank PCL (3674238Z TB) raised around US$281m in its Thailand IPO.
TCB is a commercial bank that focuses on providing business loans to small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), nano loans and micro credits to merchants, and home loans for individual customers.
We had looked at the firm’s past performance and shared our thoughts on TCB’s valuation in earlier notes. In this note, we will look at the trading dynamics.


Thai Credit Bank IPO Trading - Half the Deal Already Spoken For, the Other Half Should Be Liquid

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Krung Thai has solid post-provision profitability, close to double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with attractive PBV and PE ratios</li>
<li>We add Kasikorn to the buy list, as its cost of risk sharply improved in 4Q23, suggesting that it peaked in 3Q23; this should improve post-provision returns going forward</li>
<li>We remove Ayudhya from the buy list, as its worsening cost of risk trends are eroding post-provision returns; it is also relatively weak in terms of capital adequacy</li>
</ul>


Krung Thai has solid post-provision profitability, close to double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with attractive PBV and PE ratios
We add Kasikorn to the buy list, as its cost of risk sharply improved in 4Q23, suggesting that it peaked in 3Q23; this should improve post-provision returns going forward
We remove Ayudhya from the buy list, as its worsening cost of risk trends are eroding post-provision returns; it is also relatively weak in terms of capital adequacy


Thai Banks 4Q23 Screener; Stick with Krung Thai, Switch Out of Ayudhya into Kasikorn

Thailand

Kasikornbank Public Company Limited provides commercial banking services including personal and commercial banking, international trade, as well as investment banking services, to its customers throughout Thailand.  The Bank has foreign branches in Los Angeles, Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, and Shenzhen; and representative offices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Kunmin.

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Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

Thailand: Aging Poor

The political uncertainty in the past 2 decades has not subsided, in our judgment. We then expect more unpredictable disruptions and policy...

Bondcritic

ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2024) - Nissan/Renault, Metcash, Digital Core, SBFC, Thai Credit, Park Hotel

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Thai Credit Bank IPO Trading - Half the Deal Already Spoken For, the Other Half Should Be Liquid

Thai Credit Bank PCL (3674238Z TB) raised around US$281m in its Thailand IPO. In this note, we will look at the trading dynamics.

Clarence Chu

Thai Banks 4Q23 Screener; Stick with Krung Thai, Switch Out of Ayudhya into Kasikorn

Krung Thai has strong profitability, a healthy balance sheet and attractive valuations. Kasikorn's cost of risk has improved, hints at potentially...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

Thailand: Aging Poor

The political uncertainty in the past 2 decades has not subsided, in our judgment. We then expect more unpredictable disruptions and policy...

Bondcritic

ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2024) - Nissan/Renault, Metcash, Digital Core, SBFC, Thai Credit, Park Hotel

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Thai Credit Bank IPO Trading - Half the Deal Already Spoken For, the Other Half Should Be Liquid

Thai Credit Bank PCL (3674238Z TB) raised around US$281m in its Thailand IPO. In this note, we will look at the trading dynamics.

Clarence Chu

Thai Banks 4Q23 Screener; Stick with Krung Thai, Switch Out of Ayudhya into Kasikorn

​Krung Thai has strong profitability, a healthy balance sheet and attractive valuations. Kasikorn's cost of risk has improved, hints at potentially...

Victor Galliano

Krung Thai has strong profitability, a healthy balance sheet and attractive valuations. Kasikorn's cost of risk has improved, hints at potentially...