Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Equity Bottom-Up

Frasers Centrepoint Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

FY21 NPI/DPU met 94%/96% of our expectations as tenants’ sales continue to edge higher even as traffic wanes on Covid measures. We temper our expectations for FY22E spurt as we see potential for measures to be extended beyond the year and risk of further negative rental reversions. Nonetheless, gradual recovery story appears to be intact on resilient occupancies. We trim our DPU FY20-25E CAGR to 2.8% (prior: 3.2%). Reiterate BUY.

FY21 NPI/DPU met 94%/96% of our expectations as tenants’ sales continue to edge higher even as traffic wanes on Covid measures. We temper our expectations for FY22E spurt as we see potential for measures to be extended beyond the year and risk of further negative rental reversions. Nonetheless, gradual recovery story appears to be intact on resilient occupancies. We trim our DPU FY20-25E CAGR to 2.8% (prior: 3.2%). Reiterate BUY.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust: Tempering Our Expectations Post Site Visits

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Singapore</h2>SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/237/882/original/image_38758426221635344719889.png?1635344723" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="237882"></figure><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-centrepoint-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2870" rel="noopener">Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)</a> 2H21 DPU +39.3% YoY; Resilient occupancy and tenants’ sales amidst Phase-2 temporary setbacks</h3>2H21 revenue and NPI surged by 159.9% and 213.2% YoY, respectively, to S$167.5m and S$120.9m, mainly boosted by ARF acquisition. This brought FY21 revenue and NPI to S$341.2m (+107.5% YoY) and S$246.6m (+122.4%) or 96%/98% of BBG estimates, respectively. On a HoH basis, 2H21 revenue and NPI fell 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, due to rental rebates provided to tenants in Sep21

SingaporeSREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) 2H21 DPU +39.3% YoY; Resilient occupancy and tenants’ sales amidst Phase-2 temporary setbacks2H21 revenue and NPI surged by 159.9% and 213.2% YoY, respectively, to S$167.5m and S$120.9m, mainly boosted by ARF acquisition. This brought FY21 revenue and NPI to S$341.2m (+107.5% YoY) and S$246.6m (+122.4%) or 96%/98% of BBG estimates, respectively. On a HoH basis, 2H21 revenue and NPI fell 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, due to rental rebates provided to tenants in Sep21

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<figure>
 <img src='https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2021-10/Capture_6.PNG' alt='Retail SREIT' />
 </figure>
 <div class='content-caption'>Retail SREIT</div>
<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd">
<html><body>
At over 80 per cent of the population, Singapore has one of the highest Covid-19 vaccination rates globally. Booster shots are also underway as part of efforts towards a progressive full reopening and strategy to treat Covid-19 as endemic.

Sectors such as retail, travel and hospitality remain poised to benefit in the long run as borders reopen progressively and social activities return.

Singapore is working on establishing a vaccinated travel lane with several countries including some European countries, the United States and South Korea. 
In the near term and somewhat physically closer to our homes, suburban malls have demonstrated relevance and resilience amid extended restrictions and Work-From-Home (WFH) trends with exposure to essential trades such as supermarkets and food and beverage outlets. 
There are five S-REITs with exposure to suburban-focused retail malls in Singapore – Frasers Centrepoint Trust, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, SPH REIT, Mapletree Commercial Trust, and Lendlease Global Commercial REIT through its 31.8 per cent indirect interest in JEM. These five have averaged 7.6 per cent in total returns in the year-to-date. 
These five have averaged 7.6 per cent in total returns in the year to date (YTD). 
Suburban malls are located near residential neighbourhoods and provide residents with necessities and convenience.

SPH Reit, which owns a portfolio of retail malls in Singapore and Australia, recently reported full-year fiscal year (FY) 2021 results.

Gross revenue increased 14.8 per cent year on year to S$277.2 million and net property income increased 11.4 per cent year on year to S$202.6 million.

Distribution per unit (DPU) for Q4 FY 2021 was 1.58 cents, bringing its full year DPU to 5.40 cents which is 98 per cent higher year on year and 3.6 per cent away from FY 2019's DPU (pre-Covid).

Despite softer leasing sentiments across its portfolio, SPH Reit noted that the defensive nature of suburban malls has supported tenant sales at The Clementi Mall, bringing it to pre-Covid levels and in line with resilient suburban malls' performances.

The Clementi Mall observed a 33 per cent decrease in footfall but a 5 per cent increase in tenant sales, mitigated by its close proximity to residential homes.

CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust has a portfolio of suburban retail malls including Bedok Mall, Junction 8, Tampines Mall, and Westgate.

In the Reit's earlier first half (H1) 2021 results announcement, it noted that retail tenant sales continued to outpace shopper traffic, with both improving more than 104 per cent year on year on a low base effect.

H1 2021 tenant sales have recovered to 86.3 per cent against the 2019 average while shopper traffic was at 61.3 per cent against 2019.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust has a portfolio of nine Singapore suburban retail malls.

In its earlier business update, the Reit's tenant sales had recovered to near pre-Covid levels at end 2020 and in early 2021, despite being impacted in the third quarter (Q3) 2021 from April to June due to the tightened control measures during Phase 2 (Heightened Alert).

Mapletree Commercial Trust's VivoCity mall also noted year-on-year improvements in shopper traffic and tenant sales in Q1 FY21/22 but recovery momentum was disrupted by re-tightened Covid-19 measures.

Aside from SPH Reit, the rest of the S-Reits will be reporting quarterly results and business updates over the next few weeks.  REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times,<a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/china-focused-s-reits-resilient-amid-onshore-property-focus"> </a><a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/suburban-focused-retail-s-reits-average-76-in-total-returns-ytd">read </a>the original version.
</body></html>


      
    
    Retail SREIT


At over 80 per cent of the population, Singapore has one of the highest Covid-19 vaccination rates globally. Booster shots are also underway as part of efforts towards a progressive full reopening and strategy to treat Covid-19 as endemic.

Sectors such as retail, travel and hospitality remain poised to benefit in the long run as borders reopen progressively and social activities return.

Singapore is working on establishing a vaccinated travel lane with several countries including some European countries, the United States and South Korea.  
In the near term and somewhat physically closer to our homes, suburban malls have demonstrated relevance and resilience amid extended restrictions and Work-From-Home (WFH) trends with exposure to essential trades such as supermarkets and food and beverage outlets.  
There are five S-REITs with exposure to suburban-focused retail malls in Singapore – Frasers Centrepoint Trust, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, SPH REIT, Mapletree Commercial Trust, and Lendlease Global Commercial REIT through its 31.8 per cent indirect interest in JEM. These five have averaged 7.6 per cent in total returns in the year-to-date.  
These five have averaged 7.6 per cent in total returns in the year to date (YTD).  
Suburban malls are located near residential neighbourhoods and provide residents with necessities and convenience.

SPH Reit, which owns a portfolio of retail malls in Singapore and Australia, recently reported full-year fiscal year (FY) 2021 results.

Gross revenue increased 14.8 per cent year on year to S$277.2 million and net property income increased 11.4 per cent year on year to S$202.6 million.

Distribution per unit (DPU) for Q4 FY 2021 was 1.58 cents, bringing its full year DPU to 5.40 cents which is 98 per cent higher year on year and 3.6 per cent away from FY 2019's DPU (pre-Covid).

Despite softer leasing sentiments across its portfolio, SPH Reit noted that the defensive nature of suburban malls has supported tenant sales at The Clementi Mall, bringing it to pre-Covid levels and in line with resilient suburban malls' performances.

The Clementi Mall observed a 33 per cent decrease in footfall but a 5 per cent increase in tenant sales, mitigated by its close proximity to residential homes.

CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust has a portfolio of suburban retail malls including Bedok Mall, Junction 8, Tampines Mall, and Westgate.

In the Reit's earlier first half (H1) 2021 results announcement, it noted that retail tenant sales continued to outpace shopper traffic, with both improving more than 104 per cent year on year on a low base effect.

H1 2021 tenant sales have recovered to 86.3 per cent against the 2019 average while shopper traffic was at 61.3 per cent against 2019.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust has a portfolio of nine Singapore suburban retail malls.

In its earlier business update, the Reit's tenant sales had recovered to near pre-Covid levels at end 2020 and in early 2021, despite being impacted in the third quarter (Q3) 2021 from April to June due to the tightened control measures during Phase 2 (Heightened Alert).

Mapletree Commercial Trust's VivoCity mall also noted year-on-year improvements in shopper traffic and tenant sales in Q1 FY21/22 but recovery momentum was disrupted by re-tightened Covid-19 measures.

Aside from SPH Reit, the rest of the S-Reits will be reporting quarterly results and business updates over the next few weeks.   REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, read the original version.



REIT Watch - Suburban-focused retail S-Reits average 7.6% in total returns YTD

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3>SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)</h3><table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;"> </td><td style="width: 241.969px;">FCT</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">EREIT</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Period</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">3Q21</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">2Q21</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Gross Revenue (S$ m)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">Not Disclosed</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">59.5 (+6.25% YoY)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">NPI (S$ m)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">Not Disclosed</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">42.9 (+9.4% YoY)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">DPU (S$ c)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">Not Disclosed</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">0.754 (13.9% YoY)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">NAV per Unit (S$)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">2.31 (Based on 1H21 NAV)</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">0.398</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">P/B (x)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">1.04 (Based on 1H21 NAV)</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">1.1</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Occupancy (%)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">96.4</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">91.7</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Reversion (%)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">Not Disclosed</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">-0.2</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Gearing (%)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">33.9</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">42.9</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Cost of Debt (%)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">2.2</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">3.24</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">1 Yr Fwd Yield (%)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">5.02</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">7.05</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Debt Hedged (%)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">59</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">75</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Target Price</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">S$2.89</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">N/A</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Rating</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">BUY</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">Under Review</td></tr></tbody></table>

SingaporeSREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached) FCTEREITPeriod3Q212Q21Gross Revenue (S$ m)Not Disclosed59.5 (+6.25% YoY)NPI (S$ m)Not Disclosed42.9 (+9.4% YoY)DPU (S$ c)Not Disclosed0.754 (13.9% YoY)NAV per Unit (S$)2.31 (Based on 1H21 NAV)0.398P/B (x)1.04 (Based on 1H21 NAV)1.1Occupancy (%)96.491.7Reversion (%)Not Disclosed-0.2Gearing (%)33.942.9Cost of Debt (%)2.23.241 Yr Fwd Yield (%)5.027.05Debt Hedged (%)5975Target PriceS$2.89N/ARatingBUYUnder Review

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (23Jul21) - FCT Resilient Amidst Phase-2 Setback

<figure>
 <img src='https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2021-07/Capture_7.PNG' alt='Steady Performance' />
 </figure>
 <div class='content-caption'>Steady Performance</div>
<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd">
<html><body>
In a previous publication of Reit Watch, we noted that the average occupancy rate of the sector (excluding hospitality Reits) decreased from approximately 96 per cent as at March 31, 2020 to 95 per cent as at March 31, 2021.

The pandemic had varying degrees of impact on individual retail and office S-Reits, which were sub-sectors that saw the biggest dips in average occupancy rates of 2.1 and 1.9 percentage points (ppt) respectively.

However, there were three retail and office S-REITs that maintained or saw a boost in occupancy rates (based on reported data and barring methodology differences): IREIT Global (+1.2 ppt), Elite Commercial REIT (unchanged) and Frasers Centrepoint Trust (unchanged).

IReit Global (IReit), the first S-Reit with a Europe-focused mandate to be listed, has a portfolio of five office assets in Germany and four office assets in Spain, valued at approximately 719.6 million euros. 
IReit was the only office S-Reit that saw a year-on-year increase in occupancy rate in Q12021. The Reit had a portfolio occupancy rate of 95.9 per cent as at March 31, 2021, up from 94.7 per cent at at Mar 31, 2020. 
It noted that the pandemic had limited impact on its portfolio in Q12021, with no requests for rental rebates or deferrals from tenants and that all tenants continued to pay rents for Q12021.

In April 2021, IReit announced plans to add retail assets to its portfolio.

The acquisition consists of 27 retail properties located across France, based on a sale &amp; leaseback arrangement with Decathlon for approximately 110.5 million euros.

The acquisition will create an enlarged portfolio of 35 properties across Europe, valued at 833.5 million euros, and boosting the portfolio occupancy further to 97.0 per cent.

Elite Commercial Reit (Elite), an office S-Reit with assets in the UK, maintained full occupancy over the year. It attributed its portfolio resilience and stable cashflows to the unique nature of its tenants.

The Reit derives over 99 per cent of gross rental income from the UK government, of which 92.6 per cent is contributed by the Department for Work and Pensions.

Following its maiden acquisition of 58 properties across the UK in March 2021, Elite further extended its exposure to UK sovereign credit and welcomed a new substantial unitholder - the European Institution Partner Reinsurance Company (PartnerRE).

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT), the only S-Reit with 100 per cent retail assets in Singapore, was the sole retail S-Reit which did not report a deline in portfolio occupancy from a year ago.

The Reit's retail portfolio occupancy rate stood at 96.1 per cent as of Mar 31, 2021.  REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, <a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/defying-gravity-retail-and-office-s-reits-with-higher-occupancy">read</a> the original version.
</body></html>


      
    
    Steady Performance


In a previous publication of Reit Watch, we noted that the average occupancy rate of the sector (excluding hospitality Reits) decreased from approximately 96 per cent as at March 31, 2020 to 95 per cent as at March 31, 2021.

The pandemic had varying degrees of impact on individual retail and office S-Reits, which were sub-sectors that saw the biggest dips in average occupancy rates of 2.1 and 1.9 percentage points (ppt) respectively.

However, there were three retail and office S-REITs that maintained or saw a boost in occupancy rates (based on reported data and barring methodology differences): IREIT Global (+1.2 ppt), Elite Commercial REIT (unchanged) and Frasers Centrepoint Trust (unchanged).

IReit Global (IReit), the first S-Reit with a Europe-focused mandate to be listed, has a portfolio of five office assets in Germany and four office assets in Spain, valued at approximately 719.6 million euros.  
IReit was the only office S-Reit that saw a year-on-year increase in occupancy rate in Q12021. The Reit had a portfolio occupancy rate of 95.9 per cent as at March 31, 2021, up from 94.7 per cent at at Mar 31, 2020.  
It noted that the pandemic had limited impact on its portfolio in Q12021, with no requests for rental rebates or deferrals from tenants and that all tenants continued to pay rents for Q12021.

In April 2021, IReit announced plans to add retail assets to its portfolio.

The acquisition consists of 27 retail properties located across France, based on a sale &amp; leaseback arrangement with Decathlon for approximately 110.5 million euros.

The acquisition will create an enlarged portfolio of 35 properties across Europe, valued at 833.5 million euros, and boosting the portfolio occupancy further to 97.0 per cent.

Elite Commercial Reit (Elite), an office S-Reit with assets in the UK, maintained full occupancy over the year. It attributed its portfolio resilience and stable cashflows to the unique nature of its tenants.

The Reit derives over 99 per cent of gross rental income from the UK government, of which 92.6 per cent is contributed by the Department for Work and Pensions.

Following its maiden acquisition of 58 properties across the UK in March 2021, Elite further extended its exposure to UK sovereign credit and welcomed a new substantial unitholder - the European Institution Partner Reinsurance Company (PartnerRE).

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT), the only S-Reit with 100 per cent retail assets in Singapore, was the sole retail S-Reit which did not report a deline in portfolio occupancy from a year ago.

The Reit's retail portfolio occupancy rate stood at 96.1 per cent as of Mar 31, 2021.   REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, read the original version.



REIT Watch - Defying gravity: Retail and office S-Reits with higher occupancy

Singapore

Frasers Centrepoint Trust is a retail real estate investment trust focused on growing unitholder value through asset management, financial management and strategic investments.  The trust invests in retail properties in Singapore and overseas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust: Tempering Our Expectations Post Site Visits

FY21 NPI/DPU met 94%/96% of our expectations as tenants’ sales continue to edge higher even as traffic wanes on Covid measures.

SCCM Asia Research

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (27Oct21)

FCT temporary hiccups; EREIT persistent negative reversions; MINT boosted by US acquisitions; LMRT early signs of recovery; FIRT performance...

SCCM Asia Research

REIT Watch - Suburban-focused retail S-Reits average 7.6% in total returns YTD

At over 80 per cent of the population, Singapore has one of the highest Covid-19 vaccination rates globally. Booster shots are...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (23Jul21) - FCT Resilient Amidst Phase-2 Setback

FCT resilient amidst phase-2 setback; EREIT operations remain healthy; SSREIT removing syariah compliance; 2Q21 Industrial rents, prices up; APLN...

SCCM Asia Research

REIT Watch - Defying gravity: Retail and office S-Reits with higher occupancy

In a previous publication of Reit Watch, we noted that the average occupancy rate of the sector (excluding hospitality Reits)...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)