Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$19.2bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Tencent and ETFs stood out as large net buys.</li>
<li>I've thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, no banks showed in the top five net buys, and only 1 in the top ten.</li>
<li>It is somewhat perplexing that the flows just stopped. But that may be a sign of things to come. Confirmation may require a week or two.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$19.2bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Tencent and ETFs stood out as large net buys.
I've thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, no banks showed in the top five net buys, and only 1 in the top ten.
It is somewhat perplexing that the flows just stopped. But that may be a sign of things to come. Confirmation may require a week or two.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Based on the close of 24 May, there could be three changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)</a> in June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27590:1" rel="noopener">COSCO SHIPPING (601919 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crrc-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:122:1" rel="noopener">CRRC (601766 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-nuclear-power-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25348:1" rel="noopener">China National NuclearPower (601985 CH)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longi-green-energy-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12703:1" rel="noopener">LONGi GreenEnergy (601012 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csc-financial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27823:1" rel="noopener">CSC Financial (601066 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group DutyFree (601888 CH)</a>. </li>
<li>There are a couple of stocks that are close adds and could become adds if they outperform higher ranked stocks in trading today.</li>
</ul>


Based on the close of 24 May, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) in June.

COSCO SHIPPING (601919 CH), CRRC (601766 CH) and China National NuclearPower (601985 CH) could replace LONGi GreenEnergy (601012 CH), CSC Financial (601066 CH) and China Tourism Group DutyFree (601888 CH). 
There are a couple of stocks that are close adds and could become adds if they outperform higher ranked stocks in trading today.


Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in June; Cutoff Today

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In terms of fleet characteristics, market exposure, and recent financial performance, we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-s-lines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39795:1" rel="noopener">T.S. Lines (TSL HK)</a> and Taiwan's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a> are directly comparable</li>
<li>WHL has more exposure to the Transpacific, but still boasts a much larger Intra-Asia operation owing to its scale advantage (fleet and revenue about four times the size of TSL)</li>
<li>Given the similarities we outline in this insight, we believe TSL's shares should trade at EV/Fleet and EV/Revenue multiples in line with WHL's; no premium is justified, in our view</li>
</ul>


In terms of fleet characteristics, market exposure, and recent financial performance, we believe T.S. Lines (TSL HK) and Taiwan's Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) are directly comparable
WHL has more exposure to the Transpacific, but still boasts a much larger Intra-Asia operation owing to its scale advantage (fleet and revenue about four times the size of TSL)
Given the similarities we outline in this insight, we believe TSL's shares should trade at EV/Fleet and EV/Revenue multiples in line with WHL's; no premium is justified, in our view


TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 72.5% decline in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a>'s FY23 earnings is disappointing but should already reflected in the share price given the profit warning. Instead, this may be the trough.  </li>
<li>Spot freight rates for key intra-Asia routes have already recovered since 3Q23, with the YTD level higher than the 2H23 average. The 1H24 result may show a sequential rebound.</li>
<li>Even assuming flat YoY earnings in FY24, it still sits on a 9% dividend yield. The projected ROE of over 24% and net cash position mean 1.6-1.7x P/B undemanding.</li>
</ul>


The 72.5% decline in SITC International (1308 HK)'s FY23 earnings is disappointing but should already reflected in the share price given the profit warning. Instead, this may be the trough.  
Spot freight rates for key intra-Asia routes have already recovered since 3Q23, with the YTD level higher than the 2H23 average. The 1H24 result may show a sequential rebound.
Even assuming flat YoY earnings in FY24, it still sits on a 9% dividend yield. The projected ROE of over 24% and net cash position mean 1.6-1.7x P/B undemanding.


SITC International (1308 HK): Bidding Farewell to the Trough

Orient Overseas International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index has popped by 25% in the first two weeks of 2024 due to the Red Sea crisis. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> is a beneficiary.</li>
<li>There are already signs of bottoming out of realised freight rate and load factor in 4Q23. The spike in freight rate means that consensus forecasts are too bearish. </li>
<li>OOIL's net cash of US$5.6bn equals 58% of its market capitalisation, making its 0.7x P/B and 8% yield attractive. There is also a possibility for a higher dividend payout. </li>
</ul>


The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index has popped by 25% in the first two weeks of 2024 due to the Red Sea crisis. Orient Overseas International (316 HK) is a beneficiary.
There are already signs of bottoming out of realised freight rate and load factor in 4Q23. The spike in freight rate means that consensus forecasts are too bearish. 
OOIL's net cash of US$5.6bn equals 58% of its market capitalisation, making its 0.7x P/B and 8% yield attractive. There is also a possibility for a higher dividend payout. 


Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Is It Time for a Reversal?

China

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. offers marine shipping services. The Company provides refined oil transportation, crude oil transportation, and other services. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation also ships iron ores, dry bulks, coal, and other products.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

Cosco Shipping Development Co., Ltd is a container shipping company based in China.  The Company owns, charters, and operates container vessels for the provision of international and domestic container marine transportation services.

Hainan Strait Shipping Co., Ltd. offers domestic coastal passenger and cargo marine transportation services.

Cosco Shipping Specialised Carriers Co. provides marine and coastal freight transportation services.  The Company also operates in wholesale and retail trading, acts as a shipping agency, as well as provides loading and unloading, storage, and labor services.

Cosco Shipping Specialised Carriers  (600428 CH)

Bohai Ferry Company Limited is a passenger liner transportation enterprise. The Company mainly operates passenger vessel transport for the Yantai-Dalian and Penglai-Dalian sea routes.

Ningbo Marine Co., Ltd. provides freight transportation on the inland waters, as well as between the ports of Ningbo and Southeast Asian countries and Japan. The Company also invests in the transportation facility construction business and processes steel product.

Tianjin Tianhai Investment Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services in China and internationally. The company operates container transportation and related business. Its principal routes include international container regular freight transportation lines to South Korea and Southeast Asia with Tianjin, Qingdao, Quanzhou, and Shantou as the base ports, as well as domestic freight transportation lines to Yingkou, Qingdao, Rizhao, and Longkou with Quanzhou and Shantou as the base ports. The company was formerly known as Tianjin Marine Shipping Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Tianjin Tianhai Investment Co., Ltd. in July 2015. Tianjin Tianhai Investment Co., Ltd. is based in Tianjin, China.

Lanhai Medical Investment Co., Ltd. provides domestic and international water transportation for bulk cargos.  The Company also trades petrochemical products and provides storage service.

Lanhai Medical Investment Co.,  (600896 CH)

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides commercial airline services throughout China, Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.  The Company also provides other airline related services including aircraft maintenance and air catering.

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the civil aviation industry. It offers passenger, cargo, mail delivery, ground, cargo handling, and other extended transportation services.

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

Evergreen Marine Corp. (Taiwan) Ltd. transports freight by ships. The Company operates container ships to move freight throughout the world. Evergreen Marine has interests in terminals, airline operations and motor freight transportation, as well as container manufacturing.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. provides marine transportation, warehousing, and cargo handling services.  The Company operates container ship, specialized carrier, oil tankers, and ferry.  Items transported include coal, iron ore, grain, logs, aluminum, cement, industrial salt, copper ore, wood chips, paper products, chemical products, gasoline and other petroleum products, LPG, and other cargoes.

Kuehne + Nagel International AG transports freight worldwide.  The Company operates sea, land, and rail freight transportation businesses and warehousing and distribution facilities.  Kuehne + Nagel also provides related special services.

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

Kirby Corporation operates a fleet of inland tank barges.  The Company transports industrial chemicals, refined petroleum products, black oil products, and agricultural chemicals.  Kirby also overhauls and services diesel engines employed in marine, power generation, and rail applications.

MISC Berhad owns ships and operates shipping and related services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides trucking, warehousing and forwarding service, containers and prime movers repair, and container haulage. MISC Berhad also has operation in trucking and launch operator.

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd offers marine freight transportation services.  The Company offers container shipping, dry bulk shipping, logistics services, freight forwarding, and terminal and container leasing services internationally.  COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd operates container ships and terminals, and manufactures shipping containers.

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COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail

SOUTHBOUND saw significant net buying this past week but to no avail. HK stocks got crushed across the board. A-shares were up on the week, so it...

Travis Lundy

Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in June; Cutoff Today

There could be 3 changes for 2823HK/2822HK in June. Today is the price cutoff and there are a couple of close adds. Impact is not very large but...

Brian Freitas

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

Intra-Asia container carrier TS Lines filed to list its shares in Hong Kong (again) at the end of May, and its filing included full-year 2023...

Tracking Traffic

SITC International (1308 HK): Bidding Farewell to the Trough

SITC's disappointing FY23 earnings decline may be already priced in. With sequentially higher freight rates, there is a potential for a rebound in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Is It Time for a Reversal?

SCFI surged 25% due to the Red Sea crisis, benefiting OOIL, suggesting consensus forecasts are too bearish. It is attractive at 0.7x P/B and 8%...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail

SOUTHBOUND saw significant net buying this past week but to no avail. HK stocks got crushed across the board. A-shares were up on the week, so it...

Travis Lundy

Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in June; Cutoff Today

There could be 3 changes for 2823HK/2822HK in June. Today is the price cutoff and there are a couple of close adds. Impact is not very large but...

Brian Freitas

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

Intra-Asia container carrier TS Lines filed to list its shares in Hong Kong (again) at the end of May, and its filing included full-year 2023...

Tracking Traffic

SITC International (1308 HK): Bidding Farewell to the Trough

​SITC's disappointing FY23 earnings decline may be already priced in. With sequentially higher freight rates, there is a potential for a rebound in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Is It Time for a Reversal?

​SCFI surged 25% due to the Red Sea crisis, benefiting OOIL, suggesting consensus forecasts are too bearish. It is attractive at 0.7x P/B and 8%...

Osbert Tang, CFA

SITC's disappointing FY23 earnings decline may be already priced in. With sequentially higher freight rates, there is a potential for a rebound in...

SCFI surged 25% due to the Red Sea crisis, benefiting OOIL, suggesting consensus forecasts are too bearish. It is attractive at 0.7x P/B and 8%...