Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.26bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.26bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Chipping Away

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost</li>
<li>Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter</li>
<li>The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024</li>
</ul>


The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost
Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter
The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024


Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of $6.63 billion, up 6 % YoY, down 2% QoQ</li>
<li>Q2'23 revenues of $6.15 billion at the midpoint, down 7.2% QoQ.</li>
<li>Tool push outs and cancellations are spreading to leading logic customers. That's not a good sign</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of $6.63 billion, up 6 % YoY, down 2% QoQ
Q2'23 revenues of $6.15 billion at the midpoint, down 7.2% QoQ.
Tool push outs and cancellations are spreading to leading logic customers. That's not a good sign


Applied Materials ICAPS Grows Strongly But Leading Logic Ruins The Party

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This week is relatively in terms of earnings. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials (AMAT US)</a> will however be reporting on the 18th U.S. time.</li>
<li>Hon Hai sees the PC market bottoming; Separately, we've closed our Long Acer vs. Short Asus and reversed it to Long Asus vs. Short Acer again.</li>
<li>Quant shares have surged post results, dramatically outperforming Apple and other key Apple suppliers.</li>
</ul>


This week is relatively in terms of earnings. Applied Materials (AMAT US) will however be reporting on the 18th U.S. time.
Hon Hai sees the PC market bottoming; Separately, we've closed our Long Acer vs. Short Asus and reversed it to Long Asus vs. Short Acer again.
Quant shares have surged post results, dramatically outperforming Apple and other key Apple suppliers.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Market Bottoming, AMAT, Quanta Outperforms Peers, Samsung Tesla Meeting

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of $2.43 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint $2.35 billion, down 17.5% sequentially and up 6.4% YoY.</li>
<li>For Q2’23, the company expects revenues of $2.25 billion at the midpoint, down 4% sequentially.</li>
<li>KLAC historically outperforms its peers during semi down cycles. This time will be no different.</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of $2.43 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint $2.35 billion, down 17.5% sequentially and up 6.4% YoY.
For Q2’23, the company expects revenues of $2.25 billion at the midpoint, down 4% sequentially.
KLAC historically outperforms its peers during semi down cycles. This time will be no different.


KLAC Q1'23 Earnings Report. So Far, So Good

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Chipping Away

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

Where Are We in the Semiconductor Cycle?

Will the semiconductor market turn around? Revenues are likely to regain modest growth in the fourth quarter, but profits shouldn't return until...

Jim Handy

Applied Materials ICAPS Grows Strongly But Leading Logic Ruins The Party

Q1’23 revenues of $6.63 billion, up 6 % YoY, down 2% QoQ. Q2'23 revenues of $6.15 billion, down 7.2% QoQ.Tool push outs & cancellations spreading...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Market Bottoming, AMAT, Quanta Outperforms Peers, Samsung Tesla Meeting

Quant shares have surged post results, dramatically outperforming Apple and other key Apple suppliers. WiWynn shares crashed post results despite...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

KLAC Q1'23 Earnings Report. So Far, So Good

Q1’23 revenues of $2.43 billion, down 17.5% sequentially and up 6.4% YoY. KLAC historically outperforms its peers during semi down cycles. This...

William Keating

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