Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector by format with a brief overview of incomes and consumption trends and metrics before that. For any investor looking at the Japanese consumer/retail space, this insight will provide a rapid overview of all the major trends.2020 was a year to remember, although not for good reasons. While the news was overwhelmingly negative given the devastation that the pandemic caused to so many lives, for Japan as a country the experience could become a catalyst to spur positive change.No matter how much we might never wish to repeat the last 12 months, those governments and companies that learn from the experience will be better positioned whenever a new pandemic emerges.Department stores, convenience stores, and most fashion chains had a horrible year as so many people stayed away from major shopping areas, but many other retailers actually had stellar years, with further upside still to come.

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector by format with a brief overview of incomes and consumption trends and metrics before that. For any investor looking at the Japanese consumer/retail space, this insight will provide a rapid overview of all the major trends.2020 was a year to remember, although not for good reasons. While the news was overwhelmingly negative given the devastation that the pandemic caused to so many lives, for Japan as a country the experience could become a catalyst to spur positive change.No matter how much we might never wish to repeat the last 12 months, those governments and companies that learn from the experience will be better positioned whenever a new pandemic emerges.Department stores, convenience stores, and most fashion chains had a horrible year as so many people stayed away from major shopping areas, but many other retailers actually had stellar years, with further upside still to come. 

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

Department store sales in 2020 dropped to levels not seen since 1975 and the latest state of emergency has led to more store closures. In some ways, the remaining department stores did well to achieve CY2020 sales only 25% lower than the year before and city centre stores should revive once traffic returns.Meanwhile, there are opportunities to rethink how former department store buildings can be redeveloped.

Department store sales in 2020 dropped to levels not seen since 1975 and the latest state of emergency has led to more store closures. In some ways, the remaining department stores did well to achieve CY2020 sales only 25% lower than the year before and city centre stores should revive once traffic returns.Meanwhile, there are opportunities to rethink how former department store buildings can be redeveloped.

Japan's Department Store Sales Drop to 1975 Levels

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</div><div>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinxin-fertility-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28003:1" rel="noopener">Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951 HK)</a>while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Financials, while decreasing on Communication Services, Health Care, Financials and Energy, while shorts decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Information Technology.</div><div>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-real-estate-master-fu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22930:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Real Estate Master Fund, (3462 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-jreit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:314:1" rel="noopener">Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmg-mori-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11125:1" rel="noopener">Dmg Mori Co Ltd (6141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharma-foods-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10530:1" rel="noopener">Pharma Foods International (2929 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased in Real Estate and decreased in Industrials.</div><div>
In Korea, there was large short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pearl-abyss-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24391:1" rel="noopener">Pearl Abyss (263750 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotte-chemical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8757:1" rel="noopener">Lotte Chemical (011170 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>. 
Taiwan was closed for the week due to the Lunar New Year.
</div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) and Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951 HK)while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and BYD (1211 HK). Shorts increased on Financials, while decreasing on Communication Services, Health Care, Financials and Energy, while shorts decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Information Technology.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP), Nomura Real Estate Master Fund, (3462 JP), freee (4478 JP) and Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP) while shorts decreased on Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP), Dmg Mori Co Ltd (6141 JP) and Pharma Foods International (2929 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased in Real Estate and decreased in Industrials.
In Korea, there was large short covering in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Pearl Abyss (263750 KS), Lotte Chemical (011170 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS). 
Taiwan was closed for the week due to the Lunar New Year.


Asia Short Interest: WuXi Bio, PSBC, Jinxin Fertility, BYD, Ryohin, Freee, Itochu, Pearl Abyss

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a>, one of Japan’s best performing retailers, plans to increase the pace of growth, with up to 200 new stores in the next three years.The furniture chain will also invest around ¥200 billion in logistics to support the expansion, as well as rapidly grow its fashion chain, N+. The latter has been dismissed as a gimmick by some analysts but we think the project has serious potential. Nitori is clearly a world class retailer. While Nitori achieved gross margins of 56% last year and operating margins of 16.7%, Fast Retailing had a gross margin (based on 2019 numbers i.e. a more normal year) of 48.9% and operating margin of 11%. Inditex (for the year ending January 2019) had a gross margin of 56.7% and operating margins equal to Nitori.Nitori has also just concluded its takeover of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimachu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5235:1" rel="noopener">Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP)</a> with lots of promise for synergies.With people forced to stay at home in 2020, the nesting instinct took hold and Nitori had a particularly good year. If all goes well, FY2020 will not only be its 34th consecutive year of record results, but also see the fastest profit growth so far.

Nitori Holdings (9843 JP), one of Japan’s best performing retailers, plans to increase the pace of growth, with up to 200 new stores in the next three years.The furniture chain will also invest around ¥200 billion in logistics to support the expansion, as well as rapidly grow its fashion chain, N+. The latter has been dismissed as a gimmick by some analysts but we think the project has serious potential. Nitori is clearly a world class retailer. While Nitori achieved gross margins of 56% last year and operating margins of 16.7%, Fast Retailing had a gross margin (based on 2019 numbers i.e. a more normal year) of 48.9% and operating margin of 11%. Inditex (for the year ending January 2019) had a gross margin of 56.7% and operating margins equal to Nitori.Nitori has also just concluded its takeover of Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) with lots of promise for synergies.With people forced to stay at home in 2020, the nesting instinct took hold and Nitori had a particularly good year. If all goes well, FY2020 will not only be its 34th consecutive year of record results, but also see the fastest profit growth so far.

Nitori: A New Pace of Expansion in Home and Now Apparel

Major eyewear retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meganesuper-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14070:1" rel="noopener">Meganesuper (3318 JP)</a>, has announced it is switching from physical stores to mobile shops mounted on trucks. By the end of 2023, Megane Super wants 110 trucks in service across the country.
Supermarkets and others are also trying this idea with growing success but this is the first case of an eyewear company and, we think, the first where the retailer says it no longer expects to open physical stores.
Initial results suggest the trucks work very well, with far lower set-up and operating costs, but with sales equivalent to some of the chain’s best immobile shops, potentially resulting in a significant uptick in operating margins.

Major eyewear retailer Meganesuper (3318 JP), has announced it is switching from physical stores to mobile shops mounted on trucks. By the end of 2023, Megane Super wants 110 trucks in service across the country.
Supermarkets and others are also trying this idea with growing success but this is the first case of an eyewear company and, we think, the first where the retailer says it no longer expects to open physical stores.
Initial results suggest the trucks work very well, with far lower set-up and operating costs, but with sales equivalent to some of the chain’s best immobile shops, potentially resulting in a significant uptick in operating margins.

Megane Super: Shops on Wheels Are the Future

Japan

RYOHIN KEIKAKU CO., LTD. is a retailer and wholesaler of Mujirushi Ryohin brand products, which were originally a generic private-brand product.  The Company's product line includes knitwear, food, and household items

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Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

An in-depth update for investors in Japan's retail and consumer space on Japan's retail sector by retail type as well as a review of the impact of...

Michael Causton

Japan's Department Store Sales Drop to 1975 Levels

Department stores have been hit hard by the current crisis but were struggling before that. As a result, sales have fallen to 1975 levels. Sales...

Michael Causton

Asia Short Interest: WuXi Bio, PSBC, Jinxin Fertility, BYD, Ryohin, Freee, Itochu, Pearl Abyss

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Nitori: A New Pace of Expansion in Home and Now Apparel

Nitori is about to accelerate expansion in its core market while absorbing Shimachu and likely expanding that. It is also about to build out its...

Michael Causton

Megane Super: Shops on Wheels Are the Future

All retailers are investing in online and closing stores but in Japan, combining online with mobile shops in trucks allows customers to try before...

Michael Causton

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