Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Convenience store (CVS) retailing remains the most dynamic and innovative physical store sector. It is now 50 years since the first Seven Eleven opened and the sector wide drop in sales in 2020 was the first in its history.Whereas department stores also took a battering last year and are likely to struggle to recover, convenience stores should bounce back quickly, including implementing lessons learned in last year’s crisis.That does not mean the format faces no problems, with labour shortages, overly strict operating procedures and an ageing population of store owners (many are now reaching retirement age with no succession in place) all issues that need solutions, but its willingness and ability to adopt new technologies and adapt to the market will continue to keep CVS strong.The following is an annual in-depth review of the entire CVS sector providing context for investors in any of the big CVS retailers (and their competing formats) as well as reviews of each major firm's KPIs.

Convenience store (CVS) retailing remains the most dynamic and innovative physical store sector. It is now 50 years since the first Seven Eleven opened and the sector wide drop in sales in 2020 was the first in its history.Whereas department stores also took a battering last year and are likely to struggle to recover, convenience stores should bounce back quickly, including implementing lessons learned in last year’s crisis.That does not mean the format faces no problems, with labour shortages, overly strict operating procedures and an ageing population of store owners (many are now reaching retirement age with no succession in place) all issues that need solutions, but its willingness and ability to adopt new technologies and adapt to the market will continue to keep CVS strong.The following is an annual in-depth review of the entire CVS sector providing context for investors in any of the big CVS retailers (and their competing formats) as well as reviews of each major firm's KPIs.

Convenience Stores: First Decline in 50 Years

Equity Bottom-Up

Ryohin Keikaku’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/muji-a-3-trillion-brand-by-2030" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement last month that it is aiming to be a ¥3 trillion company by 2030</a> is being quickly backed up with new stores and refits of existing ones. Food will be a core part of the reinvented Muji business, with sales of ¥900 billion if the company meets its goals. The plan is to work with existing supermarkets to create formats that sell FMCG in a new and exciting way. The latest opened in Saitama last month and 70% of new stores will be supermarkets going forward.

Ryohin Keikaku’s announcement last month that it is aiming to be a ¥3 trillion company by 2030 is being quickly backed up with new stores and refits of existing ones. Food will be a core part of the reinvented Muji business, with sales of ¥900 billion if the company meets its goals. The plan is to work with existing supermarkets to create formats that sell FMCG in a new and exciting way. The latest opened in Saitama last month and 70% of new stores will be supermarkets going forward.

70% of New Muji Stores to Be Supermarkets

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<h3>What’s Original?</h3>
In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these policies and companies that are likely to benefit.

What’s Original?
In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these policies and companies that are likely to benefit.

Kishida as Prime Minister: The Path Ahead

The desire for home improvement was already building well before the pandemic but Japanese have turned to home decoration like never before since March 2020 as long days at home led to demand for more comfort and better aesthetics. With visits to physical stores currently something of a challenge, online sources have boomed, including new subscription rental services. While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> is a beneficiary of this trend, competitors have also seen sharp gains in volume, suggesting further new competition for the dominant player. Lowya for example is now expecting compound annual growth (CAGR) of between 21-26% over the next five years, with a forecast ¥60 billion in GTVs in 2026.

The desire for home improvement was already building well before the pandemic but Japanese have turned to home decoration like never before since March 2020 as long days at home led to demand for more comfort and better aesthetics. With visits to physical stores currently something of a challenge, online sources have boomed, including new subscription rental services. While Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) is a beneficiary of this trend, competitors have also seen sharp gains in volume, suggesting further new competition for the dominant player. Lowya for example is now expecting compound annual growth (CAGR) of between 21-26% over the next five years, with a forecast ¥60 billion in GTVs in 2026.

Competition for Nitori: Online Furniture Sales Surge

There are few discount supermarkets in Japan and the largest by far is Kobe Bussan’s Gyomu Super franchise chain.
Despite its no frills presentation and reliance on frozen foods, over the past 12 months, prices that are up to half that charged at mainstream chains have drawn in more customers and across a wider age range.
The company is now expecting yet another record performance this year.
When we first recommend Kobe Bussan in October 2018, the share price stood at around ¥780 and has risen to ¥4,080 since. This isn't cheap but given the five year growth potential, we remain bullish about the fundamentals long-term.

There are few discount supermarkets in Japan and the largest by far is Kobe Bussan’s Gyomu Super franchise chain.
Despite its no frills presentation and reliance on frozen foods, over the past 12 months, prices that are up to half that charged at mainstream chains have drawn in more customers and across a wider age range.
The company is now expecting yet another record performance this year.
When we first recommend Kobe Bussan in October 2018, the share price stood at around ¥780 and has risen to ¥4,080 since. This isn't cheap but given the five year growth potential, we remain bullish about the fundamentals long-term.

Japan

RYOHIN KEIKAKU CO., LTD. is a retailer and wholesaler of Mujirushi Ryohin brand products, which were originally a generic private-brand product.  The Company's product line includes knitwear, food, and household items

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Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)

Convenience Stores: First Decline in 50 Years

For any investor in Japan's consumer staples sector, the convenience store sector is a key component. The following is an in-depth analysis of the...

Michael Causton

70% of New Muji Stores to Be Supermarkets

Ryohin Keikaku has been on a roll in Japan but there are signs of saturation and increased competition in the core household and clothing markets....

Michael Causton

Kishida as Prime Minister: The Path Ahead

In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these...

Mio Kato

Competition for Nitori: Online Furniture Sales Surge

Nitori remains number one by far and its own e-commerce site is doing well but other online-only stores have seen fast growth, creating new forms...

Michael Causton

Kobe Bussan: Achieving New Records

Japan's discount food market is booming. The biggest discount supermarket operator is Kobe Bussan. The share price has around 6-fold since we first...

Michael Causton

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