Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since being spun out from BHP in 2015, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/south32-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22654:1" rel="noopener">South32 Ltd (S32 AU)</a></strong> has doggedly addressed its vast asset portfolio. </li>
<li>This strategy has not been without issue, such as the US$1.3bn writedown in Hermosa base metals project (zinc, lead) earlier this year due to inflationary pressure from inputs (steel, cement).</li>
<li>Not unlike other major miners, commodities tethered to the energy transition form a key cornerstone of South32’s forward objective, potentially leading to coal asset divestment and further copper (lithium?) acquisitions. </li>
</ul>


Since being spun out from BHP in 2015, South32 Ltd (S32 AU) has doggedly addressed its vast asset portfolio. 
This strategy has not been without issue, such as the US$1.3bn writedown in Hermosa base metals project (zinc, lead) earlier this year due to inflationary pressure from inputs (steel, cement).
Not unlike other major miners, commodities tethered to the energy transition form a key cornerstone of South32’s forward objective, potentially leading to coal asset divestment and further copper (lithium?) acquisitions. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>'s Second Court hearing is scheduled for 15 June and the stock is likely to stop trading at the close on that day. </li>
<li>Estimated passive tracker selling is 62m shares (A$809m; 31.2 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> and that could open up some arb opportunities.</li>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coronado-global-resources-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27473:1" rel="noopener">Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN AU)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Crown Resorts (CWN AU)'s Second Court hearing is scheduled for 15 June and the stock is likely to stop trading at the close on that day. 
Estimated passive tracker selling is 62m shares (A$809m; 31.2 days of ADV) of Crown Resorts (CWN AU) and that could open up some arb opportunities.
We expect Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, while Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN AU) could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 


Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Passive Sell Flow and Potential ASX100/200 Replacements

<ul>
<li>There is one set of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 50, one deletion for the S&amp;P/ASX 100, and four adds/ five deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 2-6 days of ADV on nearly all stocks. Short interest spikes in a few names indicate pre-positioning for the passive flow.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a> is a potential inclusion to the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index in June and that could add to the passive inflows on the stock.</li>
</ul>


There is one set of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 50, one deletion for the S&amp;P/ASX 100, and four adds/ five deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
Passive trackers will need to trade between 2-6 days of ADV on nearly all stocks. Short interest spikes in a few names indicate pre-positioning for the passive flow.

Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) is a potential inclusion to the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index in June and that could add to the passive inflows on the stock.


S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2022): Mostly Expected, Some Surprises & Short Interest Spikes

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts</a> Scheme Meeting is scheduled for 20 May and the last trading day could be 24 May, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-lottery-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35970:1" rel="noopener">The Lottery Corp</a> is expected to start trading 24 May.</li>
<li>The changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index will depend on the market cap of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-lottery-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35970:1" rel="noopener">The Lottery Corp (TLC AU)</a> and new <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tabcorp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6837:1" rel="noopener">Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)</a>.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last week and couple of months so there will be some pre-positions in there already.</li>
</ul>


The Crown Resorts Scheme Meeting is scheduled for 20 May and the last trading day could be 24 May, while The Lottery Corp is expected to start trading 24 May.
The changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index will depend on the market cap of The Lottery Corp (TLC AU) and new Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU).
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last week and couple of months so there will be some pre-positions in there already.


S&P/​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Tabcorp, Crown & Potential Changes in June

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lake-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14597:1" rel="noopener">Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU)</a> could be added the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> respectively next week following the privatisation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Then we have the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tabcorp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6837:1" rel="noopener">Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)</a> spinoff in May that will add to the changes at the regular rebalance in June for the indices.</li>
<li>Short interest has spiked on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lake-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14597:1" rel="noopener">Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a> recently following the huge rally in the stocks.</li>
</ul>



Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) and Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU) could be added the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 respectively next week following the privatisation of Crown Resorts (CWN AU). 
Then we have the Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) spinoff in May that will add to the changes at the regular rebalance in June for the indices.
Short interest has spiked on Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) recently following the huge rally in the stocks.


S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in May & June

Australia

Coronado Global Resources Inc. operates as a coal mining company. The Company produces and develops metallurgical coal portfolios. Coronado Global Resources serves customers worldwide.

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Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN AU)

Reshaping South32's Low-Carbon Footprint

Currently trading bang in line with its average trailing metrics; and marginally up on its forward metrics. I'd probably tilt positive here, but...

David Blennerhassett

Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Passive Sell Flow and Potential ASX100/200 Replacements

Crown Resorts has received all reg approvals. The court hearing takes place 15 Jun & the stock could stop trading at the close. There will be large...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2022): Mostly Expected, Some Surprises & Short Interest Spikes

Most changes to the indices were expected, there are some surprises & short interest has spiked on some names. CXO could be added to the REMX....

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Tabcorp, Crown & Potential Changes in June

The Crown Resorts privatisation and Tabcorp spinoff will add to the S&P/ASX changes in June. There is a lot to trade on the potential adds/deletes...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in May & June

There could be one change in May followed by a bunch of changes in June. SVW and LKE could be added on 3 May following CWN's privatisation. TAH's...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Reshaping South32's Low-Carbon Footprint

Currently trading bang in line with its average trailing metrics; and marginally up on its forward metrics. I'd probably tilt positive here, but...

David Blennerhassett

Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Passive Sell Flow and Potential ASX100/200 Replacements

Crown Resorts has received all reg approvals. The court hearing takes place 15 Jun & the stock could stop trading at the close. There will be large...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2022): Mostly Expected, Some Surprises & Short Interest Spikes

Most changes to the indices were expected, there are some surprises & short interest has spiked on some names. CXO could be added to the REMX....

Brian Freitas

S&P/​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Tabcorp, Crown & Potential Changes in June

The Crown Resorts privatisation and Tabcorp spinoff will add to the S&P/ASX changes in June. There is a lot to trade on the potential adds/deletes...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in May & June

There could be one change in May followed by a bunch of changes in June. SVW and LKE could be added on 3 May following CWN's privatisation. TAH's...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2022): Mostly Expected, Some Surprises & Short Interest Spikes

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Tabcorp, Crown & Potential Changes in June