External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nine Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall Motor, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Neta and Leap reported their Jul 2023 sales volumes on 1 Aug 2023.</li><li>Sales volume of the nine automakers combined rose 67% YoY (ranged from -28% to +228%) and 6% MoM (ranged from -17% to +91%) in Jul 2023.</li><li>NEV trio all beat our expectation by 1,000-2,000 units. Li Auto recorded a sales volume of more than 34,000 units in Jul 2023, stronger than our previous forecast.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nine Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall Motor, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Neta and Leap reported their Jul 2023 sales volumes on 1 Aug 2023.Sales volume of the nine automakers combined rose 67% YoY (ranged from -28% to +228%) and 6% MoM (ranged from -17% to +91%) in Jul 2023.NEV trio all beat our expectation by 1,000-2,000 units. Li Auto recorded a sales volume of more than 34,000 units in Jul 2023, stronger than our previous forecast.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jul NEV: All-time high sales for seven brands

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 2% YoY and 12% MoM in Jun 2023 amid high base, 5% higher than our prior forecast, driving the 1H23 retail sales volume 5% higher than a year ago.</li><li>Wholesale volume rose 2% YoY and 11% MoM to 2.27mn units in Jun 2023, the highest Jun in history, and 9% higher than our prior forecast.</li><li>Wholesale volume rose 9% YoY (or +0.41mn units YoY) in 1H23, aided by 88% YoY growth (or +0.83mn units YoY) of exports.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 2% YoY and 12% MoM in Jun 2023 amid high base, 5% higher than our prior forecast, driving the 1H23 retail sales volume 5% higher than a year ago.Wholesale volume rose 2% YoY and 11% MoM to 2.27mn units in Jun 2023, the highest Jun in history, and 9% higher than our prior forecast.Wholesale volume rose 9% YoY (or +0.41mn units YoY) in 1H23, aided by 88% YoY growth (or +0.83mn units YoY) of exports.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Strong June provides more confidence for 2H23

<ul><li>We summarize the Jun 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of May 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Jun retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>Most automakers’ discounts widened MoM in Jun 2023 to rush for 1H23 targets and cut inventories, as we had expected. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Jun 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of May 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Jun retail sales volume data have not been released yet.Most automakers’ discounts widened MoM in Jun 2023 to rush for 1H23 targets and cut inventories, as we had expected. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – When will discounts peak after rising for 8 months

<ul>
<li>We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li>
<li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.</li>
<li>We are of the view that Tesla is still resilient, while NIO’s key metrics in Jun were below our expectation.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.
Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.
We are of the view that Tesla is still resilient, while NIO’s key metrics in Jun were below our expectation.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jun leading indicators: NIO weaker than expected

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. We project NIO’s net loss in 2Q23E to be similar to 1Q23, at around RMB 4.9bn.</li><li>We estimate that its recent price cuts on margin dent to be limited in FY23E but more severe in FY24-25E.</li><li>Such price cuts could also make its new brand less differentiated from the NIO brand, in our view.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain HOLD. We project NIO’s net loss in 2Q23E to be similar to 1Q23, at around RMB 4.9bn.We estimate that its recent price cuts on margin dent to be limited in FY23E but more severe in FY24-25E.Such price cuts could also make its new brand less differentiated from the NIO brand, in our view.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Margin dent from price cuts lingers into FY24-25

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

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NIO (NIO US)

China Auto Sector – Jul NEV: All-time high sales for seven brands

Nine Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall Motor, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Neta and Leap reported their Jul 2023 sales volumes on 1...

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Strong June provides more confidence for 2H23

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 2% YoY and 12% MoM in Jun 2023 amid high base, 5% higher than our prior forecast

CMB International

China Auto Sector – When will discounts peak after rising for 8 months

Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of May 2023 retail sales volume for each model

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Jun leading indicators: NIO weaker than expected

We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Margin dent from price cuts lingers into FY24-25

Maintain HOLD. We project NIO’s net loss in 2Q23E to be similar to 1Q23, at around RMB 4.9bn. We estimate that its recent price cuts on margin dent...

CMB International

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