Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>XPEV/1211 BYD: Tesla announced price reduction for Model 3 and Model Y(-)</li>
<li>TCOM/780 HK: 4Q23 inbound and outbound travel recover to 82% of 2019 level, mainly from Hong Kong and Macao(-)</li>
<li>ATAT/HTHT: National Migration Administration introduced five facilitation measures to attract foreigners to China (+)</li>
</ul>


XPEV/1211 BYD: Tesla announced price reduction for Model 3 and Model Y(-)
TCOM/780 HK: 4Q23 inbound and outbound travel recover to 82% of 2019 level, mainly from Hong Kong and Macao(-)
ATAT/HTHT: National Migration Administration introduced five facilitation measures to attract foreigners to China (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]: NIO/LI/XPEV/TSLA/1211 HK/TCOM/780 HK/ATAT/HTHT

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese tourists are back, and the Thai government has launched a series of initiatives to woo them back.</li>
<li>Discounts to airlines offered by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> will not hurt earnings much, although if extended for &gt;12 months,  AOT earnings could lag their peers.</li>
<li>Valuation is still expensive, although it is expected to normalize once earnings are back. Collapse the RV trade against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a> and buy for the short term.</li>
</ul>


Chinese tourists are back, and the Thai government has launched a series of initiatives to woo them back.
Discounts to airlines offered by Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) will not hurt earnings much, although if extended for &gt;12 months,  AOT earnings could lag their peers.
Valuation is still expensive, although it is expected to normalize once earnings are back. Collapse the RV trade against Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) and buy for the short term.


Airport of Thailand (AOT): Near Term Gain

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Data from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> showed good improvement in travel demand for the 2024 New Year holidays. The volume of various orders has surged between 2x and 5x YoY. </li>
<li>Aggregate net profit for the tourism and hospitality sector has turned around to Rmb20.4bn in 3Q23, from losses of Rmb24.7bn a year ago, demonstrating solid profitability recovery.</li>
<li>An average of 32% drop in the sector's share price YTD is unjustified. We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China (H) (753 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


Data from Trip.com Group (9961 HK) showed good improvement in travel demand for the 2024 New Year holidays. The volume of various orders has surged between 2x and 5x YoY. 
Aggregate net profit for the tourism and hospitality sector has turned around to Rmb20.4bn in 3Q23, from losses of Rmb24.7bn a year ago, demonstrating solid profitability recovery.
An average of 32% drop in the sector's share price YTD is unjustified. We like Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), Air China (H) (753 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK).  


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics</li>
<li>Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November</li>
<li>YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity</li>
</ul>


"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics
Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November
YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

<ul>
<li>In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions</li>
<li>A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far</li>
<li>Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year</li>
</ul>


In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions
A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far
Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year


12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

China

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: NIO/LI/XPEV/TSLA/1211 HK/TCOM/780 HK/ATAT/HTHT

Tesla reduces prices for Model 3 and Model Y; Travel recovers to 82% of 2019 levels in Hong Kong and Macao; China introduces measures to attract...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Airport of Thailand (AOT): Near Term Gain

AOT looks interesting right now, as there have been a few initiatives by both the management and the local authority to win tourism market share in...

Henry Soediarko

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

China's National Immigration Administration estimates there will be 1.56m travelers passing through immigration during the 2024 Chinese New Year...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

November outbound data were disappointing, and even domestic travel activity metrics appeared to move in the wrong direction. Not surprisingly,...

Tracking Traffic

12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

A year after most of China's pandemic-related travel restrictions were eased, we look back at the recovery in Chinese tourism activity in 2023.

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: NIO/LI/XPEV/TSLA/1211 HK/TCOM/780 HK/ATAT/HTHT

​Tesla reduces prices for Model 3 and Model Y; Travel recovers to 82% of 2019 levels in Hong Kong and Macao; China introduces measures to attract...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Airport of Thailand (AOT): Near Term Gain

AOT looks interesting right now, as there have been a few initiatives by both the management and the local authority to win tourism market share in...

Henry Soediarko

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

China's National Immigration Administration estimates there will be 1.56m travelers passing through immigration during the 2024 Chinese New Year...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

November outbound data were disappointing, and even domestic travel activity metrics appeared to move in the wrong direction. Not surprisingly,...

Tracking Traffic

12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

A year after most of China's pandemic-related travel restrictions were eased, we look back at the recovery in Chinese tourism activity in 2023.

Tracking Traffic

Tesla reduces prices for Model 3 and Model Y; Travel recovers to 82% of 2019 levels in Hong Kong and Macao; China introduces measures to attract...