Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China’s NPPA issued a list of 67 new games approved for July 2022, and once again, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>  and its smaller rival NetEase were excluded from the list.</li>
<li>The nine-month long freeze on new game approval was lifted in April, however, none of Tencent’s new games were included in the approved lists in April, June and July.</li>
<li>This further affirms our view that the anti-monopoly crackdown on tech firms hasn’t slowed down, but regulators are probing on dominant players such as Tencent to level the playing field.</li>
</ul>


China’s NPPA issued a list of 67 new games approved for July 2022, and once again, Tencent (700 HK)  and its smaller rival NetEase were excluded from the list.
The nine-month long freeze on new game approval was lifted in April, however, none of Tencent’s new games were included in the approved lists in April, June and July.
This further affirms our view that the anti-monopoly crackdown on tech firms hasn’t slowed down, but regulators are probing on dominant players such as Tencent to level the playing field.


Tencent – Excluded Again from New Game Approvals

<ul>
<li>On 10th July, SAMR published 28 administrative penalties for violating anti-monopoly law related to disclosing past transactions on firms including Tencent, Alibaba, Didi, Weibo and Bilibili.</li>
<li>A fine of RMB17.2m (US$2.56m) was imposed in total and were fined for not properly reporting past deals between March 2011 to July 2021.</li>
<li>The market has come to believe that the anti-monopoly investigation in China is easing off, however, the recent development suggests that the anti-monopoly normalisation will continue.</li>
</ul>


On 10th July, SAMR published 28 administrative penalties for violating anti-monopoly law related to disclosing past transactions on firms including Tencent, Alibaba, Didi, Weibo and Bilibili.
A fine of RMB17.2m (US$2.56m) was imposed in total and were fined for not properly reporting past deals between March 2011 to July 2021.
The market has come to believe that the anti-monopoly investigation in China is easing off, however, the recent development suggests that the anti-monopoly normalisation will continue.


Tencent Fined for Violating Disclosure on Past Transactions; Anti-Monopoly Probe Is Far From Over

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 8 July.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a>'s index inclusion is a surprise, the impact from passive fund trading is not a lot. Nothing much one can do on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> will drop 16.12 points at the close on 8 July. Something for traders to watch out for over the next week.</li>
</ul>



Bilibili (9626 HK) will replace Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close of trading on 8 July.
While Bilibili (9626 HK)'s index inclusion is a surprise, the impact from passive fund trading is not a lot. Nothing much one can do on Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK). 
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) will drop 16.12 points at the close on 8 July. Something for traders to watch out for over the next week.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Bilibili Replaces Sunac Next Week

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Tencent sold US$3bn worth of SEA shares in Jan 22. The rest of its stake was locked up for six months.</li>
<li>The initial stake sale by Tencent didn’t go down too well and the stock is now trading over 63% below the deal price.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.</li>
</ul>


Tencent sold US$3bn worth of SEA shares in Jan 22. The rest of its stake was locked up for six months.
The initial stake sale by Tencent didn’t go down too well and the stock is now trading over 63% below the deal price.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.


SEA Lock-Up - Tencent Is once Again About to Be Free to Trim Its US$8bn Stake

<ul>
<li>SenseTime Group (STG) raised US$741m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The IPO barely made it through and was priced at the bottom of its IPO price range.</li>
<li>STG is a leading AI software company. STG was the largest AI software company in Asia in terms of 2020 revenue, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>


SenseTime Group (STG) raised US$741m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The IPO barely made it through and was priced at the bottom of its IPO price range.
STG is a leading AI software company. STG was the largest AI software company in Asia in terms of 2020 revenue, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


SenseTime Lock-Up -Investment Blacklist Will Further Pressurize the Upcoming US$18bn Lock-Up Release

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

Tencent – Excluded Again from New Game Approvals

Tencent, once again failed to make into the approved list of 67 new games for July 2022, nor in the last two batches of approved new game titles....

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent Fined for Violating Disclosure on Past Transactions; Anti-Monopoly Probe Is Far From Over

Tencent was fined for failing to make timely disclosures regarding past deals. Though the fine is not significant given the size of Tencent, it is...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Bilibili Replaces Sunac Next Week

Bilibili (9626) replaces Sunac (1918) in the HSCEI at the close on 8 July. Bilibili's inclusion is a surprise but there is little impact of passive...

Brian Freitas

SEA Lock-Up - Tencent Is once Again About to Be Free to Trim Its US$8bn Stake

Tencent sold US$3bn worth of SEA shares in Jan 22. The rest of its stake was locked up for six months, which will soon be over.

Sumeet Singh

SenseTime Lock-Up -Investment Blacklist Will Further Pressurize the Upcoming US$18bn Lock-Up Release

SenseTime Group (STG) raised US$741m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The lockup on the pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will expire later this month.

Sumeet Singh

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