External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The INR4.2trn microfinance industry (MFI) has witnessed a strong 20% CAGR over FY21-24, driven by a simultaneous increase in borrower count (13% CAGR) and average exposure (6% CAGR)</li><li>We argue that the bureau-reported industry-wide borrower count for FY24 is fraught with data integrity risk and blindsides stakeholders into under-estimating customer leverage</li><li>Our analysis suggests that the pan-India micro-credit penetration stands at &gt;40% (FY12: &lt;12%), with top states such as Bihar (&gt;80%) and Tamil Nadu (&gt;50%) appearing significantly elevated</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The INR4.2trn microfinance industry (MFI) has witnessed a strong 20% CAGR over FY21-24, driven by a simultaneous increase in borrower count (13% CAGR) and average exposure (6% CAGR)We argue that the bureau-reported industry-wide borrower count for FY24 is fraught with data integrity risk and blindsides stakeholders into under-estimating customer leverageOur analysis suggests that the pan-India micro-credit penetration stands at &gt;40% (FY12: &lt;12%), with top states such as Bihar (&gt;80%) and Tamil Nadu (&gt;50%) appearing significantly elevatedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials - Microfinance: Positioning for the Down Cycle

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The systemic credit growth (as of 20th Sep’24) continued to remain healthy at 13% YoY.</li><li>This growth continues to be led by Retail and SMEs, while corporate credit continues to remain sluggish.</li><li>The deceleration in credit growth is most likely primarily amongst the private sector banks as they aim to reduce their LDR and maintain them at balance levels. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The systemic credit growth (as of 20th Sep’24) continued to remain healthy at 13% YoY.This growth continues to be led by Retail and SMEs, while corporate credit continues to remain sluggish.The deceleration in credit growth is most likely primarily amongst the private sector banks as they aim to reduce their LDR and maintain them at balance levels. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q2FY25 Earnings Preview - Banks, Financial Services and Insurance

<ul><li>Banks (incl. SFBs) under our coverage continued to report healthy credit growth at ~15% YoY (ex-HDFCB), marginally lower than our expectation of ~16% YoY (ex-HDFCB).</li><li>This growth was largely led by the retail/SME segment, with a moderation in unsecured segment growth for certain banks.</li><li>The trends in corporate portfolio were divergent, with certain banks pointing out intense competition and unfavorable pricing resulting in them not pursuing growth in the segment, while certain banks witnessed strong demand-led growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks (incl. SFBs) under our coverage continued to report healthy credit growth at ~15% YoY (ex-HDFCB), marginally lower than our expectation of ~16% YoY (ex-HDFCB).This growth was largely led by the retail/SME segment, with a moderation in unsecured segment growth for certain banks.The trends in corporate portfolio were divergent, with certain banks pointing out intense competition and unfavorable pricing resulting in them not pursuing growth in the segment, while certain banks witnessed strong demand-led growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Sector Ideas: Banking, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI) Q1FY25

<ul><li>Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreads</li><li>As banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchises</li><li>While we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreadsAs banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchisesWhile we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

<ul><li>Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation for GAIL with a target price of INR 212 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 132/142mmscmd by FY25/26 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segment</li><li>Q4FY24 reported EBITDA stood at INR 36bn (+11.6x YoY, -7% QoQ), which came broadly in line with our estimate, however, PAT at INR 22bn (+3.6x YoY, -23% QoQ), came below our estimate, impacted by higher depreciation and interest cost and lower other income</li><li>Depreciation was higher at INR 12bn (+80% YoY, +48% QoQ) due to the revision in the residual value of pipelines resulting in additional depreciation of INR 1.7bn in Q4</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation for GAIL with a target price of INR 212 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 132/142mmscmd by FY25/26 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segmentQ4FY24 reported EBITDA stood at INR 36bn (+11.6x YoY, -7% QoQ), which came broadly in line with our estimate, however, PAT at INR 22bn (+3.6x YoY, -23% QoQ), came below our estimate, impacted by higher depreciation and interest cost and lower other incomeDepreciation was higher at INR 12bn (+80% YoY, +48% QoQ) due to the revision in the residual value of pipelines resulting in additional depreciation of INR 1.7bn in Q4Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Gail (India), Phoenix Mills, Balkrishna Industries

India

Bandhan Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank provides accounts checking, savings deposits, money market, mortgage, and term loans services, as well as card facilities and Internet banking services. Bandhan Bank serves customers in India.

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Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)

Leveraged Financials - Microfinance: Positioning for the Down Cycle

The INR4.2trn microfinance industry (MFI) has witnessed a strong 20% CAGR over FY21-24, driven by a simultaneous increase in borrower count (13%...

HDFC Securities

Q2FY25 Earnings Preview - Banks, Financial Services and Insurance

Mirroring the systemic credit growth trends, we expect banks under our coverage (incl. SFBs) to register credit growth of ~14/4% YoY/QoQ.

Axis Direct

Top Sector Ideas: Banking, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI) Q1FY25

Banks (incl. SFBs) under our coverage continued to report healthy credit growth at ~15% YoY (ex-HDFCB), marginally lower than our expectation of...

Axis Direct

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

Our hypothesis remains anchored around strong retail deposit franchises and declining spreads over the next 12 months, coupled with the...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Gail (India), Phoenix Mills, Balkrishna Industries

Depreciation was higher at INR 12bn (+80% YoY, +48% QoQ) due to the revision in the residual value of pipelines resulting in additional...

HDFC Securities

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