ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>With the US trade deficit with China dwarfing those with other countries (including ASEAN), US-China trade negotiation will come front and center shortly.</li><li>Our base case scenario is the middle ground between full-blown trade war and friendly trade negotiation scenarios. </li><li>We recommend shorting Renminbi (Rmb) currency to play US protectionism theme.</li><li>In the full-blown trade war scenario, there is no hiding place for equity investors, in our opinion.</li></ul>

With the US trade deficit with China dwarfing those with other countries (including ASEAN), US-China trade negotiation will come front and center shortly.Our base case scenario is the middle ground between full-blown trade war and friendly trade negotiation scenarios. We recommend shorting Renminbi (Rmb) currency to play US protectionism theme.In the full-blown trade war scenario, there is no hiding place for equity investors, in our opinion.

Asia Market Strategy: What Does US Protectionism Mean to China and ASEAN?

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Euromonitor International’s Wealth and Income distribution model looks at 50 markets through a measure of income and accumulated wealth. Our model forecast the growth of these factors to 2030 and has valuable insight as to where consumers will exit poverty and enter the middle class over the forecast period. For consumer finance, these consumers that are recent additions to the middle class will represent a sizeable and bankable population. Companies that invest early and establish brand loyalty with these consumers will very likely benefit over the forecast period

Euromonitor International’s Wealth and Income distribution model looks at 50 markets through a measure of income and accumulated wealth. Our model forecast the growth of these factors to 2030 and has valuable insight as to where consumers will exit poverty and enter the middle class over the forecast period. For consumer finance, these consumers that are recent additions to the middle class will represent a sizeable and bankable population. Companies that invest early and establish brand loyalty with these consumers will very likely benefit over the forecast period

Markets Expected to Lower Poverty Rate the Most by 2030

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with his commanding the sea to retreat and ending up with wet feet. The tide, it turned out, would obey none, not even a successful King and empire builder. The story is often represented as one of human folly and hubris. The power- mad ruler who thought he could command nature. In fact the reverse is true. Cnut was specifically setting out to teach his…

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with his commanding the sea to retreat and ending up with wet feet. The tide, it turned out, would obey none, not even a successful King and empire builder. The story is often represented as one of human folly and hubris. The power- mad ruler who thought he could command nature. In fact the reverse is true. Cnut was specifically setting out to teach his…

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

There was some consternation last night as the CNH surged against the USD bringing the CNY-CNH spread to an unprecedented 800 or so.  What is interesting is that there seemed to be no news or move in underlying currencies that would cause such a move.We can find no clear reason that would drive a late day and post standard trading hour surge in the CNH.  Let us review the major reasons given as explanations.Some have argued this may be due to tightening capital controls out of China.  Possible…

There was some consternation last night as the CNH surged against the USD bringing the CNY-CNH spread to an unprecedented 800 or so.  What is interesting is that there seemed to be no news or move in underlying currencies that would cause such a move.We can find no clear reason that would drive a late day and post standard trading hour surge in the CNH.  Let us review the major reasons given as explanations.Some have argued this may be due to tightening capital controls out of China.  Possible…

China

China CITIC Bank Corporation Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, domestic settlement,  currency trading, bank guarantee, and other services. China CITIC Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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China CITIC Bank (601998 CH)

Asia Market Strategy: What Does US Protectionism Mean to China and ASEAN?

With the US trade deficit with China dwarfing those with other countries (including ASEAN), US-China trade negotiation will come front and center...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Markets Expected to Lower Poverty Rate the Most by 2030

Euromonitor International’s Wealth and Income distribution model looks at 50 markets through a measure of income and accumulated wealth. Our model...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets. It is evident that a significant...

Greg Gibbs

Money Matters: King Cnut and the PBOC.

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with...

Stewart Paterson

What Caused the CNH Surge?

There was some consternation last night as the CNH surged against the USD bringing the CNY-CNH spread to an unprecedented 800 or so. What is...

Christopher Balding

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