External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We had positive takeaways on F&amp;B demand over the New Year holiday break from our chancel check with distributors.</li><li>In view of the strong foot traffic and hence gifting demand, Baijiu and Beer exceeded expectation, followed by soft drinks and RTD.</li><li>Dairies (including IMF) had a good recovery despite a relatively high inventory level. Both packaged snacks and instant noodle had good momentum.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We had positive takeaways on F&amp;B demand over the New Year holiday break from our chancel check with distributors.In view of the strong foot traffic and hence gifting demand, Baijiu and Beer exceeded expectation, followed by soft drinks and RTD.Dairies (including IMF) had a good recovery despite a relatively high inventory level. Both packaged snacks and instant noodle had good momentum.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Positive Takeaway from F&B Distributors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Despite sentiment improving upon China’s re-opening, we feel that Feihe will likely remain a beta play, or essentially a laggard, to its F&amp;B peers that enjoy higher sensitivity to the theme.</li><li>We acknowledge the long-term benefits from the abolishment of social-distancing measures.</li><li>That said, we are also wary of the disruption to near term growth with uncertainties arising from how households and businesses react to this “exit wave”.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Despite sentiment improving upon China’s re-opening, we feel that Feihe will likely remain a beta play, or essentially a laggard, to its F&amp;B peers that enjoy higher sensitivity to the theme.We acknowledge the long-term benefits from the abolishment of social-distancing measures.That said, we are also wary of the disruption to near term growth with uncertainties arising from how households and businesses react to this “exit wave”.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Feihe (6186 HK) – Looks to Be a Beta Play Within 1H23

<ul><li>3Q wrapped up with 2 beats, 2 in-lines and 2 misses. We revised our 2022E earnings forecasts by -1 to -23%, and that put us roughly 5-25% below consensus.</li><li>In our view, risks are still skewed to the downside, barring any sporadic lockdowns.</li><li>When policy rhetoric is not turning, we again see grounds on the enforcement of “stay put for the holiday” for the coming CNY holiday.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

3Q wrapped up with 2 beats, 2 in-lines and 2 misses. We revised our 2022E earnings forecasts by -1 to -23%, and that put us roughly 5-25% below consensus.In our view, risks are still skewed to the downside, barring any sporadic lockdowns.When policy rhetoric is not turning, we again see grounds on the enforcement of “stay put for the holiday” for the coming CNY holiday.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Lacklustre 4Q22E Outlook Despite Any Short-Lived Rally; Top Buy CRB/ Proya/ CTGDF

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>A non-eventful 3Q. While earnings cuts and de-ratings have taken place and reset market expectation across 1H results, in our view, earnings volatility for 3Q is unlikely to be drastic.</li><li>For items that we monitored, our channel checks suggested that sales momentum was largely on track to us - low-teen growth for CRB, double-digit growth for Nongfu, and particularly sequential double- digit recovery for Mengniu and Feihe.</li><li>Separately, the lockdown of Hainan since August could mean downside revision potential for CTGDF despite a well-maintained GPM.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

A non-eventful 3Q. While earnings cuts and de-ratings have taken place and reset market expectation across 1H results, in our view, earnings volatility for 3Q is unlikely to be drastic.For items that we monitored, our channel checks suggested that sales momentum was largely on track to us - low-teen growth for CRB, double-digit growth for Nongfu, and particularly sequential double- digit recovery for Mengniu and Feihe.Separately, the lockdown of Hainan since August could mean downside revision potential for CTGDF despite a well-maintained GPM.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Addressing Recent Investors’ Concerns

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We moderately trim our 2022/23E earnings by 6-7% p.a as we now attempt to factor-in 1) a lower GPM (by average 0.8pp) due to higher non-infant milk formula contribution and 2) a 1.5pp higher selling expense.</li><li>Our forecast in general is at the low end/ slightly below management guidance, as we believe a low birth rate could compound with an intensifying competition to weigh on margins and drive up promotion expenses.</li><li>Despite this, Feihe’s sequential sales recovery sustains our BUY rating.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We moderately trim our 2022/23E earnings by 6-7% p.a as we now attempt to factor-in 1) a lower GPM (by average 0.8pp) due to higher non-infant milk formula contribution and 2) a 1.5pp higher selling expense.Our forecast in general is at the low end/ slightly below management guidance, as we believe a low birth rate could compound with an intensifying competition to weigh on margins and drive up promotion expenses.Despite this, Feihe’s sequential sales recovery sustains our BUY rating.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Feihe (6186 HK) – Completion of channel restructuring continues to drive a steady 2H recovery

China

China Feihe Limited manufactures and sells dairy products. The Company provides infant milk formula products processing, production, marketing, and other services. China Feihe also sells infant milk formula products on some electronic commerce platforms.

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China Feihe (6186 HK)

China Consumer – Positive Takeaway from F&B Distributors

In view of the strong foot traffic and hence gifting demand, Baijiu and Beer exceeded expectation, followed by soft drinks and RTD

CMB International