External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs. 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22).</li><li>Gross margin YoY pressures continue in Q1FY23: Commodity pressure continued into Q1FY23, impacting the margin (even sequentially).</li><li>Three-year CAGR: Our coverage universe is expected to deliver 9/4% three- year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs in Q1.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs. 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22).Gross margin YoY pressures continue in Q1FY23: Commodity pressure continued into Q1FY23, impacting the margin (even sequentially).Three-year CAGR: Our coverage universe is expected to deliver 9/4% three- year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs in Q1.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev -  Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

<div><div><div><ul><li>D2C is here to stay; omni-channel the way forward: There are about 600 to 800 digital first companies in India.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Near-term challenges to test D2C brands’ business models: Overall, the consumption environment in India is under pressure, given high inflation.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Traditional companies adopting digital: While D2C companies start to become sizable, many traditional companies are adopting the digital way.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

D2C is here to stay; omni-channel the way forward: There are about 600 to 800 digital first companies in India.Near-term challenges to test D2C brands’ business models: Overall, the consumption environment in India is under pressure, given high inflation.Traditional companies adopting digital: While D2C companies start to become sizable, many traditional companies are adopting the digital way.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG -  D2C Is Here to Stay; Omni-Channel the Way Forward

<ul><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">D2C is here to stay; omni-channel the way forward: There are about 600 to 800 digital first companies in India.</span></li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Near-term challenges to test D2C brands’ business models: Overall, the consumption environment in India is under pressure, given high inflation.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Traditional companies adopting digital: While D2C companies start to become sizable, many traditional companies are adopting the digital way.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

FMCG - D2C Is Here to Stay; Omni-Channel the Way Forward

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Headline performance: Dabur’s 4QFY22 consolidated revenue grew by 7.7% YoY to Rs25.2bn (our est. of Rs26.2bn). EBITDA grew by just 2.5% YoY to Rs4.5bn (our est. of Rs5.1bn).</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Segmental performance for 4QFY22: Healthcare (33.6% of Domestic FMCG in 4QFY22) grew by 7.4% YoY (2- year CAGR: 14.9%).</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 margin: Gross margin was down 130bps YoY at 47.4% (-90bps QoQ; vs our est. 47.5%)</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Headline performance: Dabur’s 4QFY22 consolidated revenue grew by 7.7% YoY to Rs25.2bn (our est. of Rs26.2bn). EBITDA grew by just 2.5% YoY to Rs4.5bn (our est. of Rs5.1bn).Segmental performance for 4QFY22: Healthcare (33.6% of Domestic FMCG in 4QFY22) grew by 7.4% YoY (2- year CAGR: 14.9%).4QFY22 margin: Gross margin was down 130bps YoY at 47.4% (-90bps QoQ; vs our est. 47.5%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dabur India - Misses Estimates; Near Term Remains Challenging

<div><div><div><ul><li>Revenue miss, weak HPC: Net revenue grew by 8% YoY (+25% in Q4FY21 and +8% in Q3FY22), a miss on our expectation of 10.6% growth.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>A miss in margin; expect resilient margin in FY23: GM contracted by 130bps YoY (-35bps in Q4FY21 and -205bps in Q3FY22) to 47.4%.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>mployee/other expenses grew by 4/14% YoY (17/17% in Q4FY21). A&amp;P spends were down 3% YoY.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Revenue miss, weak HPC: Net revenue grew by 8% YoY (+25% in Q4FY21 and +8% in Q3FY22), a miss on our expectation of 10.6% growth.A miss in margin; expect resilient margin in FY23: GM contracted by 130bps YoY (-35bps in Q4FY21 and -205bps in Q3FY22) to 47.4%.mployee/other expenses grew by 4/14% YoY (17/17% in Q4FY21). A&amp;P spends were down 3% YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dabur - Weak HPC Show; Expect Resilient Margin in FY23

India

Dabur India Ltd. manufactures soaps, detergents, hair oils, tooth powders, antacids and processed foods. The Company sells its products worldwide.

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Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)

FMCG & Alco Bev - Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

Gross margin YoY pressures continue in Q1FY23: Commodity pressure continued into Q1FY23, impacting the margin (even sequentially).

HDFC Securities

FMCG - D2C Is Here to Stay; Omni-Channel the Way Forward

In continuation to our D2C thematic–Changing Landscape Not Fully Factored In– we recently hosted multiple founders and experts in the D2C space.

HDFC Securities

FMCG - D2C Is Here to Stay; Omni-Channel the Way Forward

In continuation to our D2C thematic–Changing Landscape Not Fully Factored In– we recently hosted multiple founders and experts in the D2C space.

HDFC Securities

Dabur India - Misses Estimates; Near Term Remains Challenging

The operating environment remained challenging with inflation of 16% in 4QFY22 and subdued consumer sentiments, especially in the hinterlands.

Nirmal Bang

Dabur - Weak HPC Show; Expect Resilient Margin in FY23

Dabur’s revenue and EBITDA margin were below our expectation. Revenue grew 8% YoY (HSIE 11%), with three-year CAGR at 6%.

HDFC Securities

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