Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Most companies have announced their final dividends for 2021 and most of those have announced ex-dates. Banks and oil companies have announced higher dividends than last year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> has not declared a dividend yet due to its IPO, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a>'s suspension could lead to index deletion in June or July. </li>
<li>Using current/proforma index compositions and conservative estimates for interim dividends, we estimate fair value at 240.73 DIPS for 2022. This is a sell at the last close or higher.</li>
</ul>


Most companies have announced their final dividends for 2021 and most of those have announced ex-dates. Banks and oil companies have announced higher dividends than last year.

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) has not declared a dividend yet due to its IPO, while Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)'s suspension could lead to index deletion in June or July. 
Using current/proforma index compositions and conservative estimates for interim dividends, we estimate fair value at 240.73 DIPS for 2022. This is a sell at the last close or higher.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.</p><ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-3121'>Lippo Karawaci</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-240'>Sunac China Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-22202'>Vedanta Resources</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Lippo KarawaciSunac China HoldingsVedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci, Sunac China Holdings, Vedanta Resources

<p>Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.</p>In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunac China Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Adaro Energy</a></li><li><a href='/entities/logan-property-holdings-co-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Logan Property Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sino-ocean-land-holdings' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sino Ocean Land</a></li><li><a href='/entities/powerlong-real-estate-holdings-limited' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Powerlong Real Estate Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Sunac China HoldingsAdaro EnergyLogan Property HoldingsSino Ocean LandPowerlong Real Estate Holdingsand more...

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A handful of debt-encumbered Chinese real estate developers have postponed publishing their 2021 annual reports, blaming disruptions from a recent wave of Covid-19 cases that hit China.</li><li>Sunac China Holdings Ltd., the country’s third largest developer by sales, said it could not complete audit procedures on time due to restrictions on personal movement that resulted from the recent Covid flare-ups, according to a Monday<a href="https://www.sunac.com.cn/upload/file/2022-03-21/9d39d143-efb5-49e3-8a84-8ef8f1d57818.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> exchange filing</a>.</li><li>A suspension of express delivery services coupled with Covid-19 containment measures that closed down offices and quarantined workers in several cities left some Sunac subsidiaries unable to finalize the necessary documents for its report, the filing said.</li></ul>

A handful of debt-encumbered Chinese real estate developers have postponed publishing their 2021 annual reports, blaming disruptions from a recent wave of Covid-19 cases that hit China.Sunac China Holdings Ltd., the country’s third largest developer by sales, said it could not complete audit procedures on time due to restrictions on personal movement that resulted from the recent Covid flare-ups, according to a Monday exchange filing.A suspension of express delivery services coupled with Covid-19 containment measures that closed down offices and quarantined workers in several cities left some Sunac subsidiaries unable to finalize the necessary documents for its report, the filing said.

Debt-Wracked Chinese Developers Delay 2021 Financial Reports

<ul><li>Sunac China, the country’s third-largest developer, is seeking a two-year payment extension on a 4 billion yuan ($627.85 million) onshore bond due April 1, Caixin learned from several bondholders.</li><li>In return, Sunac’s billionaire Chairman Sun Hongbin proposes to provide an unlimited joint liability guarantee.</li><li>The move followed rating downgrades by all three global rating companies and a series of negative developments involving other developers including delays in making debt repayments.</li></ul>

Sunac China, the country’s third-largest developer, is seeking a two-year payment extension on a 4 billion yuan ($627.85 million) onshore bond due April 1, Caixin learned from several bondholders.In return, Sunac’s billionaire Chairman Sun Hongbin proposes to provide an unlimited joint liability guarantee.The move followed rating downgrades by all three global rating companies and a series of negative developments involving other developers including delays in making debt repayments.

Sunac China Seeks Two-Year Extension on $627.85 Million Bond

China

Sunac China Holdings Limited is a real estate development company.

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Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)

HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments

We estimate a fair value of 240.73 DIPS for the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures after adjusting for CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com. We would be sellers of the...

Brian Freitas

Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci, Sunac China Holdings, Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 25 Mar 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Debt-Wracked Chinese Developers Delay 2021 Financial Reports

A handful of debt-encumbered Chinese real estate developers have postponed publishing their 2021 annual reports, blaming disruptions from a recent...

Caixin Global

Sunac China Seeks Two-Year Extension on $627.85 Million Bond

Sunac China, the country’s third-largest developer, is seeking a two-year payment extension on a 4 billion yuan ($627.85 million) onshore bond due...

Caixin Global

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