Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Based on new data released by NBS today: in June, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 14% YoY and 29% YTD YoY, slower compared to 22% and 34% in May, respectively. National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 7% on YoY basis and declined by 3% on YTD YoY basis, improving on the previous month.In absolute terms, YTD (Jan-Jun) national new home sales reached historical highs, while the…

Based on new data released by NBS today: in June, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 14% YoY and 29% YTD YoY, slower compared to 22% and 34% in May, respectively. National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 7% on YoY basis and declined by 3% on YTD YoY basis, improving on the previous month.In absolute terms, YTD (Jan-Jun) national new home sales reached historical highs, while the…

China Data Brief: New Home Sales Growth Slows, Land Sales Growth Less Negative (Jan-Jun)

A number of indicators point at an impending turning point for the aggregate level house price growth in China. Historically, a set of indicators such as M2 money supply growth rate and sales volumes growth for 'commercial residential' sector in terms of gross floor area sold, have been fairly good predictors of the direction of the house price growth. And the house price growth has followed a fairly consistent set of cycles over the past years, reflecting the sequence of policy easing and tightening moves.

A number of indicators point at an impending turning point for the aggregate level house price growth in China. Historically, a set of indicators such as M2 money supply growth rate and sales volumes growth for 'commercial residential' sector in terms of gross floor area sold, have been fairly good predictors of the direction of the house price growth. And the house price growth has followed a fairly consistent set of cycles over the past years, reflecting the sequence of policy easing and tightening moves.

A Cyclical Turning Point For China Property?

In this one-minute animation (below) we illustrate the dynamics of the house price growth in China across 100 major cities on a monthly basis between June 2011 and June 2016, based on index data from SouFun CREIS. Looking at individual cities or even districts demonstrates how large the spread of performance can be across cities, even within one tier.The size-changing 'bubbles' capture monthly year-on-year changes in house prices at the city level, the size of the 'bubbles' reflects the growth…

In this one-minute animation (below) we illustrate the dynamics of the house price growth in China across 100 major cities on a monthly basis between June 2011 and June 2016, based on index data from SouFun CREIS. Looking at individual cities or even districts demonstrates how large the spread of performance can be across cities, even within one tier.The size-changing 'bubbles' capture monthly year-on-year changes in house prices at the city level, the size of the 'bubbles' reflects the growth…

China Property - What's Really Happened To The House Prices Over The Past 6 Years?

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

With China devaluing the RMB, PPI remains firmly negative though the decline has slowed.. This negative trend in PPI will inevitably have a damaging impact on the corporate sector which already is highly leveraged and is a major contributor towards NPLs which have become a headache for Chinese banks.The PPI for June has turned out to be -2.6%, though above the previous month but still signifying a deflationary environment. The major slump has been witnessed by the investment and fixed asset…

With China devaluing the RMB, PPI remains firmly negative though the decline has slowed.. This negative trend in PPI will inevitably have a damaging impact on the corporate sector which already is highly leveraged and is a major contributor towards NPLs which have become a headache for Chinese banks.The PPI for June has turned out to be -2.6%, though above the previous month but still signifying a deflationary environment. The major slump has been witnessed by the investment and fixed asset…

New data shows that in June average house prices in 100 major cities rose by 11.2% year-on-year, according to the latest data from SouFun-CREIS released this morning (detailed data update attached). This compares with 10.3% in May, and June was the 11th consecutive month of year-on-year price growth. Shenzhen recorded the strongest year-on-year increase of 52%, though decelerating vs previous month. On a sequential month-on-month basis, prices rose fastest in Nanjing and Xiamen. Of the 100 major…

New data shows that in June average house prices in 100 major cities rose by 11.2% year-on-year, according to the latest data from SouFun-CREIS released this morning (detailed data update attached). This compares with 10.3% in May, and June was the 11th consecutive month of year-on-year price growth. Shenzhen recorded the strongest year-on-year increase of 52%, though decelerating vs previous month. On a sequential month-on-month basis, prices rose fastest in Nanjing and Xiamen. Of the 100 major…

China Property Data Update - House Prices Rise 11.2% Y/Y In June Vs 10.3% In May

China

Sunac China Holdings Limited is a real estate development company.

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Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)

China Data Brief: New Home Sales Growth Slows, Land Sales Growth Less Negative (Jan-Jun)

Based on new data released by NBS today: in June, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 14% YoY...

Robert Ciemniak

A Cyclical Turning Point For China Property?

A number of indicators point at an impending turning point for the aggregate level house price growth in China. Historically, a set of indicators...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - What's Really Happened To The House Prices Over The Past 6 Years?

In this one-minute animation (below) we illustrate the dynamics of the house price growth in China across 100 major cities on a monthly basis...

Robert Ciemniak

A Look at PPI and CPI Data From China

With China devaluing the RMB, PPI remains firmly negative though the decline has slowed.. This negative trend in PPI will inevitably have a...

Christopher Balding

China Property Data Update - House Prices Rise 11.2% Y/Y In June Vs 10.3% In May

New data shows that in June average house prices in 100 major cities rose by 11.2% year-on-year, according to the latest data from SouFun-CREIS...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)