Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

A potentially massive change is underway in the housing markets in China. The great policy push by the government from the very top since mid-2017, and the bottom-up need driven by affordability problems and changing mindsets have taken the rental housing market centre stage in the China property sector. With this note, we initiate our data and analytics entry into the sector that we label as ULTRA – Urban Long Term Rental Apartments sector.

A potentially massive change is underway in the housing markets in China. The great policy push by the government from the very top since mid-2017, and the bottom-up need driven by affordability problems and changing mindsets have taken the rental housing market centre stage in the China property sector. With this note, we initiate our data and analytics entry into the sector that we label as ULTRA – Urban Long Term Rental Apartments sector.

China Rental Housing Revolution - Part 1: The Landscape

18 months ago, in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-a-turning-point-for-the-sunny-sanya-and-hainan-island" target="_blank">"China Property: A Turning Point For The Sunny Sanya And Hainan Island?"</a>, we talked about a turning point and upside for the Sanya housing market. Measured by the official NBS house price growth indices, the city of Sanya on Hainan Island (the "Chinese Hawaii") is as of July 2018 the top performing city in terms of the house price growth on a 12-month and on a 3-month basis, benefiting from the policy support for Hainan, yet subject to a range of sales and price restrictions locally. We look at the key data and drivers at the city level to illuminate the local market dynamics and near-term outlook, as well as what caveats it brings to the widely watched 70-cities price growth index, from a macro perspective.

18 months ago, in "China Property: A Turning Point For The Sunny Sanya And Hainan Island?", we talked about a turning point and upside for the Sanya housing market. Measured by the official NBS house price growth indices, the city of Sanya on Hainan Island (the "Chinese Hawaii") is as of July 2018 the top performing city in terms of the house price growth on a 12-month and on a 3-month basis, benefiting from the policy support for Hainan, yet subject to a range of sales and price restrictions locally. We look at the key data and drivers at the city level to illuminate the local market dynamics and near-term outlook, as well as what caveats it brings to the widely watched 70-cities price growth index, from a macro perspective.

China Property - Sanya And Hainan Island Are The Hottest Yet Very Restricted Housing Markets

We look at the data and specific cases of the failed land auctions in China that raise a question as to whether we are witnessing a turning point in the property market on the supply side. We pick a number of specific land auctions as examples and look in greater depth at what may have happened in those cases and what it may signal for the market overall.

We look at the data and specific cases of the failed land auctions in China that raise a question as to whether we are witnessing a turning point in the property market on the supply side. We pick a number of specific land auctions as examples and look in greater depth at what may have happened in those cases and what it may signal for the market overall.

China Property: Does The Increase In Failed Land Auctions Signal Anything?

Macroeconomics

The NBS house price growth indices data for 70 major cities in July was released earlier today and shows an accelerating month-on-month and year-on-year growth, after a broadly stable pace of year-on-year growth over the recent months. Yet, watch out for the data caveat in how such averages are computed, and its implications for accurate data interpretation.

The NBS house price growth indices data for 70 major cities in July was released earlier today and shows an accelerating month-on-month and year-on-year growth, after a broadly stable pace of year-on-year growth over the recent months. Yet, watch out for the data caveat in how such averages are computed, and its implications for accurate data interpretation.

Today's China House Price Data: The Prices Rise Faster... But Beware The Arithmetics Of Averages

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

China’s banks are well-exposed to China’s Information Technology (IT) companies. We may sometimes forget this, where we tend to focus on industrial companies or State Owned Enterprises (SOE’s) as the only real credit risk. The interest surrounding the recent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24409" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> IPO is exceptional, but its financial metrics are weak and its creditors face repayment risk. This risk is apparent with many peer IT companies, where debt levels are rising and with weak debt/ebitda. We believe that…

China’s banks are well-exposed to China’s Information Technology (IT) companies. We may sometimes forget this, where we tend to focus on industrial companies or State Owned Enterprises (SOE’s) as the only real credit risk. The interest surrounding the recent Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) IPO is exceptional, but its financial metrics are weak and its creditors face repayment risk. This risk is apparent with many peer IT companies, where debt levels are rising and with weak debt/ebitda. We believe that…

Xiaomi and China Banks: Poor China IT Financial Metrics, a Lessor Known Risk to China Banks

China

Sunac China Holdings Limited is a real estate development company.

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Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)

China Rental Housing Revolution - Part 1: The Landscape

A potentially massive change is underway in the housing markets in China. The great policy push by the government from the very top since mid-2017,...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Sanya And Hainan Island Are The Hottest Yet Very Restricted Housing Markets

18 months ago, in "China Property: A Turning Point For The Sunny Sanya And Hainan Island?", we talked about a turning point and upside for the...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Does The Increase In Failed Land Auctions Signal Anything?

We look at the data and specific cases of the failed land auctions in China that raise a question as to whether we are witnessing a turning point...

Robert Ciemniak

Today's China House Price Data: The Prices Rise Faster... But Beware The Arithmetics Of Averages

The NBS house price growth indices data for 70 major cities in July was released earlier today and shows an accelerating month-on-month and...

Robert Ciemniak

Xiaomi and China Banks: Poor China IT Financial Metrics, a Lessor Known Risk to China Banks

China’s banks are well-exposed to China’s Information Technology (IT) companies. We may sometimes forget this, where we tend to focus on industrial...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)