China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>According to FT, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> digital currency project, Libra, is preparing to launch as early as January 2021 and its value will be backed by a single currency, the US dollar. This project is still awaiting approval from FINMA (the Swiss-based Financial Market Supervisory Authority) and will works as a stablecoin, which is much less volatile than cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. </li>
<li>We view the slim-down version of Libra, now called Diem, as a feasible alternative to original proposal. The full-blown version 2.0 of Libra is backed by multiple currencies (such as USD, EUR, and GBP). And 1 Libra is proposed to be calculated as 0.5 LibraUSD, 0.3 LibraEUR, and 0.2 LibraGBP. However, multiple currency reserve will pose addition regulatory obstacles, as how much weights and what currency will be determined. With Libra is backed by USD only now, there is not much road blocks for Libra to be launched next year. </li>
<li>China is accelerating its efforts to launch its sovereign digital currency. In October, the People’s Bank of China published a draft law that would give legal status to the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system, and for the first time the digital yuan has been included and defined as part of the country’s sovereign fiat currency. The broad acceptance and launches of digital currency is the high conviction idea for 2021, such as China's Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> Libra/Diem projects. We have highlighted China's race to digital currency in the following: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-a-share-strategy-leading-the-race-for-digital-currency" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China A-Share Strategy: Leading the Race for Digital Currency</a>
</li>
</ul>


According to FT, Facebook Inc A (FB US) digital currency project, Libra, is preparing to launch as early as January 2021 and its value will be backed by a single currency, the US dollar. This project is still awaiting approval from FINMA (the Swiss-based Financial Market Supervisory Authority) and will works as a stablecoin, which is much less volatile than cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. 
We view the slim-down version of Libra, now called Diem, as a feasible alternative to original proposal. The full-blown version 2.0 of Libra is backed by multiple currencies (such as USD, EUR, and GBP). And 1 Libra is proposed to be calculated as 0.5 LibraUSD, 0.3 LibraEUR, and 0.2 LibraGBP. However, multiple currency reserve will pose addition regulatory obstacles, as how much weights and what currency will be determined. With Libra is backed by USD only now, there is not much road blocks for Libra to be launched next year. 
China is accelerating its efforts to launch its sovereign digital currency. In October, the People’s Bank of China published a draft law that would give legal status to the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system, and for the first time the digital yuan has been included and defined as part of the country’s sovereign fiat currency. The broad acceptance and launches of digital currency is the high conviction idea for 2021, such as China's Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system and Facebook Inc A (FB US) Libra/Diem projects. We have highlighted China's race to digital currency in the following: China A-Share Strategy: Leading the Race for Digital Currency



Digital Currency: Still Remember Facebook Libra/Diem ?

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Reversing Course Again: On April 3, 2020, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) - the European Union’s financial regulatory body which replaced the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) – in the context of the corona virus, released a statement urging insurers to “temporarily suspend all discretionary dividend distributions and share buybacks aimed at remunerating shareholders” in order to preserve capital. In an odd reversal of course, EIOPA has updated its commentary surrounding European insurance capital management; and  *Asia-Pacific Insurers Still At Risk: Asia-Pacific insurance counterparts previously acted in capital solidarity with their Western peer during COVID-19. Many Asia-Pacific insurers purchased USD-denominated assets in their desperate search for yield in this low/negative rate environment where the impact of credit default and ratings agency downgrades on their investment portfolios is likely to continue to be outsized and challenge capital their ratios. We are hopeful that the Asia-Pacific insurers - particularly in Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea – don’t behave as desperately as their European counterparts have.

*Reversing Course Again: On April 3, 2020, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) - the European Union’s financial regulatory body which replaced the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) – in the context of the corona virus, released a statement urging insurers to “temporarily suspend all discretionary dividend distributions and share buybacks aimed at remunerating shareholders” in order to preserve capital. In an odd reversal of course, EIOPA has updated its commentary surrounding European insurance capital management; and  *Asia-Pacific Insurers Still At Risk: Asia-Pacific insurance counterparts previously acted in capital solidarity with their Western peer during COVID-19. Many Asia-Pacific insurers purchased USD-denominated assets in their desperate search for yield in this low/negative rate environment where the impact of credit default and ratings agency downgrades on their investment portfolios is likely to continue to be outsized and challenge capital their ratios. We are hopeful that the Asia-Pacific insurers - particularly in Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea – don’t behave as desperately as their European counterparts have. 

Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

Last week we wrote that accelerating economic integration in the Greater Bay Area is  lies at the heart of China’s strategy to win the battle for economic supremacy.  It is key to China’s future economic prosperity and, directly counters America’s China containment strategy. Beijing recognises China containment will remain the lynchpin of US foreign policy. A Biden US presidency ensures that development of the GBA is only set to speed up. Companies are investing in next generation industries to meet the wants of the GBA’s tech-savvy consumers and are optimistic about revenue growth over the next three years. For investors seeking superior returns the case for investing in GBA companies has never looked stronger.

Last week we wrote that accelerating economic integration in the Greater Bay Area is  lies at the heart of China’s strategy to win the battle for economic supremacy.  It is key to China’s future economic prosperity and, directly counters America’s China containment strategy. Beijing recognises China containment will remain the lynchpin of US foreign policy. A Biden US presidency ensures that development of the GBA is only set to speed up. Companies are investing in next generation industries to meet the wants of the GBA’s tech-savvy consumers and are optimistic about revenue growth over the next three years. For investors seeking superior returns the case for investing in GBA companies has never looked stronger. 

Biden Vs. Xi - What Are Businesses Doing?

<ul>
<li>China is accelerating its efforts to launch its sovereign digital currency. In October, the People’s Bank of China published a draft law that would give legal status to the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system, and for the first time the digital yuan has been included and defined as part of the country’s sovereign fiat currency.</li>
<li>Pilot testing of China’s DC/EP system has rolled out recently in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Xiong’an and Chengdu. The digital currency will also feature at the Beijing Winter Olympics in 2022. In the public testing in Shenzhen, "red pockets" valued at RMB200 each have been distributed to 50,000 residents to use in 3,000 local retail stores and restaurants. The pilot program has shown 2 distinct features for DC/EP system: 1) the use of DC/EP app does not require an existed bank account, this will target to serve any non-bank customers; 2) DC/EP app uses QR code or NFC for payment, which is similar to popular Wechat or Alipay system. We believe these payment methods will facilitate the wide adoption of DC/EP system.</li>
<li>PBoC’s DC/EP is fundamentally different to crypto currencies and stablecoins. Its main function, is to partially replace paper cash (M0) and supplement retail ePayments (C2C or C2B) in China. We believe the success of pilot DC/EP system will pave way for a solution for cashless environment. China is leading the race for digital currency. </li>
</ul><div data-v-5a0444bf=""></div>


China is accelerating its efforts to launch its sovereign digital currency. In October, the People’s Bank of China published a draft law that would give legal status to the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system, and for the first time the digital yuan has been included and defined as part of the country’s sovereign fiat currency.
Pilot testing of China’s DC/EP system has rolled out recently in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Xiong’an and Chengdu. The digital currency will also feature at the Beijing Winter Olympics in 2022. In the public testing in Shenzhen, "red pockets" valued at RMB200 each have been distributed to 50,000 residents to use in 3,000 local retail stores and restaurants. The pilot program has shown 2 distinct features for DC/EP system: 1) the use of DC/EP app does not require an existed bank account, this will target to serve any non-bank customers; 2) DC/EP app uses QR code or NFC for payment, which is similar to popular Wechat or Alipay system. We believe these payment methods will facilitate the wide adoption of DC/EP system.
PBoC’s DC/EP is fundamentally different to crypto currencies and stablecoins. Its main function, is to partially replace paper cash (M0) and supplement retail ePayments (C2C or C2B) in China. We believe the success of pilot DC/EP system will pave way for a solution for cashless environment. China is leading the race for digital currency. 


China A-Share Strategy: Leading the Race for Digital Currency

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

A50 is starting to show rally momentum problems as we near our macro target at 17,684. After a dip and rise off of pivot trendline, we see a push toward 17,500 where risk to reward turns less favorable/bearish at least into Q1. We are nearing the mid-December peak risk cycle that will re surface in late January.A50 has been a top long bet from March. The cycle is starting to fracture.A shares and HK represent downside risk that would weigh on EEM and the leadership A shares have held for the better part of 2020. Macro bull case remains strong for China but the intermediate trend for A shares is at risk given the overlapping rise that has formed the rising wedge noted to date.Shanghai composite failing to clear the summer highs is also a weak point of divergence with the A50. After a bounce, the lows near 3,210 attract.Odds for a downside surprise is growing.

A50 is starting to show rally momentum problems as we near our macro target at 17,684. After a dip and rise off of pivot trendline, we see a push toward 17,500 where risk to reward turns less favorable/bearish at least into Q1. We are nearing the mid-December peak risk cycle that will re surface in late January.A50 has been a top long bet from March. The cycle is starting to fracture.A shares and HK represent downside risk that would weigh on EEM and the leadership A shares have held for the better part of 2020. Macro bull case remains strong for China but the intermediate trend for A shares is at risk given the overlapping rise that has formed the rising wedge noted to date.Shanghai composite failing to clear the summer highs is also a weak point of divergence with the A50. After a bounce, the lows near 3,210 attract.Odds for a downside surprise is growing.

China

The FTSE China A50 Index includes the largest 50 A Share Chinese companies by total market cap. 

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX)

Digital Currency: Still Remember Facebook Libra/Diem ?

The broad acceptance and launches of digital currency is the high conviction idea for 2021, such as China's Digital Currency Electronic Payment...

Roger Xie

Asian Insurers – Mea, Mea EIOPA

ASIA INSURERS: On April 3, 2020, EIOPA temporarily suspended capital management activities," but just reversed course. Many Asia-Pacific insurers...

Thomas J. Monaco

Biden Vs. Xi - What Are Businesses Doing?

The case for investing in GBA companies has never looked stronger. Companies are investing in next generation industries and are optimistic about...

Sharmila Whelan

China A50 Deterioration a Risk for Asia

A50 is starting to show rally momentum problems as we near our macro target at 17,684 (17,500) where risk to reward turns less favorable/bearish at...

Thomas Schroeder