Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Major global indices have decided to relegate Russia to the "standalone" and "unclassified" market status due to sanctions and restrictions on transfer/payment/clearing.</li>
<li>Talk of significant flows into major non-Russia EM markets such as China, Taiwan, Korea, etc is misguided. </li>
<li>Russia was a non-negligible weight in global EM a few months ago, but GDRs have fallen dramatically and Russia-listed are effectively now portfolio pocket lint.</li>
</ul>


Major global indices have decided to relegate Russia to the "standalone" and "unclassified" market status due to sanctions and restrictions on transfer/payment/clearing.
Talk of significant flows into major non-Russia EM markets such as China, Taiwan, Korea, etc is misguided. 
Russia was a non-negligible weight in global EM a few months ago, but GDRs have fallen dramatically and Russia-listed are effectively now portfolio pocket lint.


Russia Gets the Boot from Major Indices - Minimal Impact But World's Largest Small Sidepocket?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Russian overweight wiped out after initial phase of Russia drop.  China underweight contracts on the back of natural portfolio adjustments.</li>
<li>South Africa takes on new role as the top pure EM play in the region.  Saudi Arabia underweight increases.</li>
<li>Russian overweight causes underperformance of -0.64% for active managers compared to benchmark.  Saudi Arabia u/w is proving a costly position for active managers in the face of inflated oil prices.</li>
</ul>


Russian overweight wiped out after initial phase of Russia drop.  China underweight contracts on the back of natural portfolio adjustments.
South Africa takes on new role as the top pure EM play in the region.  Saudi Arabia underweight increases.
Russian overweight causes underperformance of -0.64% for active managers compared to benchmark.  Saudi Arabia u/w is proving a costly position for active managers in the face of inflated oil prices.


<ul>
<li>Russia suffered a significant reallocation of capital during the Crimea Annexation in 2014.  Average weights fell by -3.36%, 7.9% of funds closed positions and investors shifted from overweight to underweight</li>
<li>EM investors were well positioned in Russia heading in to 2022, not perhaps as heavily exposed as pre-Crimea, but enough to significantly effect portfolio returns for many funds.</li>
<li>Given the scale of the Ukraine conflict and the uncertainty surrounding western sanctions, this doesn’t feel like the time for catching a falling knife.</li>
</ul>


Russia suffered a significant reallocation of capital during the Crimea Annexation in 2014.  Average weights fell by -3.36%, 7.9% of funds closed positions and investors shifted from overweight to underweight
EM investors were well positioned in Russia heading in to 2022, not perhaps as heavily exposed as pre-Crimea, but enough to significantly effect portfolio returns for many funds.
Given the scale of the Ukraine conflict and the uncertainty surrounding western sanctions, this doesn’t feel like the time for catching a falling knife.


Russia: Echoes of the Past. Crimea Analysis and Positioning Update

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over the past 3 years, and implemented in its current state for 20 months, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, set out in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over the past 3 years, and implemented in its current state for 20 months, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, set out in detail below.


The last decade has seen EMEA allocations in active GEM portfolios drift ever lower, with Asia becoming the dominant weight.  However, the recent rhetoric from China has seen Asian allocations fall from their peak and EMEA allocations rally from their lows.  Average weights in EMEA stocks stand at 13.72%, marginally overweight the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF by 0.24%, with just under half of the active managers in our analysis overweight. <ul>
<li>Over the course of the last decade, exposure to each EMEA sector has either fallen dramatically or at best stayed largely unchanged.  Those that have seen a big decline in investment are led by EMEA Industrials and Health Care, with over 40% of investors closing exposure.  </li>
<li>The largest sector exposure, EMEA Financials allocations sit towards the lower-end of their historical range.  Top holdings are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sberbank-of-russia-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24142:1" rel="noopener">Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otp-bank-nyrt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28806:1" rel="noopener">OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP HB)</a> with 59% and 31% of funds invested respectively.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcs-group-holding-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28148:1" rel="noopener">TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS LI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitec-bank-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27628:1" rel="noopener">Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CPI SJ)</a> saw ownership levels increase the most over the last 6-months.</li>
<li>Consumer Discretionary weights hit another all-time high this month of 1.46%, representing a 1.04% overweight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF.  Underpinning the overweight are out-of-benchmark holdings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> and Fix Price Group, though in general stocks in the sector are not widely held.  Funds with big overweights are led by Comgest's GEM Promising Companies Fund (8.98%) and Van Eck's Emerging Markets Fund (7.21%).  </li>
<li>With active ownership declining throughout 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23749:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)</a> has finally been the recipient of some inflows.  Over the last 6-months, 2% of funds added Gazprom to their portfolios with a combined $217m in inflows.  Leading those were Fidelity (2.7%), Virtus Allianz (2.67%) and JP Morgan ($64m).</li>
</ul>The analysis looks in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks that underpin investment in the region.Analysis taken from our GEM fund research, covering 250 active GEM strategies with combined AUM of $500bn

The last decade has seen EMEA allocations in active GEM portfolios drift ever lower, with Asia becoming the dominant weight.  However, the recent rhetoric from China has seen Asian allocations fall from their peak and EMEA allocations rally from their lows.  Average weights in EMEA stocks stand at 13.72%, marginally overweight the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF by 0.24%, with just under half of the active managers in our analysis overweight. 
Over the course of the last decade, exposure to each EMEA sector has either fallen dramatically or at best stayed largely unchanged.  Those that have seen a big decline in investment are led by EMEA Industrials and Health Care, with over 40% of investors closing exposure.  
The largest sector exposure, EMEA Financials allocations sit towards the lower-end of their historical range.  Top holdings are Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI) and OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP HB) with 59% and 31% of funds invested respectively.  TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS LI) and Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CPI SJ) saw ownership levels increase the most over the last 6-months.
Consumer Discretionary weights hit another all-time high this month of 1.46%, representing a 1.04% overweight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF.  Underpinning the overweight are out-of-benchmark holdings in Prosus (PRX NA) and Fix Price Group, though in general stocks in the sector are not widely held.  Funds with big overweights are led by Comgest's GEM Promising Companies Fund (8.98%) and Van Eck's Emerging Markets Fund (7.21%).  
With active ownership declining throughout 2020, Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX) has finally been the recipient of some inflows.  Over the last 6-months, 2% of funds added Gazprom to their portfolios with a combined $217m in inflows.  Leading those were Fidelity (2.7%), Virtus Allianz (2.67%) and JP Morgan ($64m).
The analysis looks in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks that underpin investment in the region.Analysis taken from our GEM fund research, covering 250 active GEM strategies with combined AUM of $500bn

EMEA Sectors Deep-Dive.  Active Positioning in the EMEA Region

Russia

MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC produces nickel, palladium, platinum and copper. The Company also produces various by-products such as cobalt, rhodium, silver, gold, iridium, ruthenium, selenium, tellurium and sulfur.

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Mmc Norilsk Nickel Pjsc (Adr) (MNOD LI)

Russia Gets the Boot from Major Indices - Minimal Impact But World's Largest Small Sidepocket?

Russia is getting deleted from major indices after brief consultation given sanctions from outside Russia and prohibitions on transfer inside...

Travis Lundy

EM Positioning After Russia’s Collapse

Russian overweight wiped out after initial phase of Russia drop. China underweight contracts on the back of natural portfolio adjustments.

Steven Holden

Russia: Echoes of the Past. Crimea Analysis and Positioning Update

Russia suffered a significant reallocation of capital during the Crimea Annexation of 2014. It took 2 years for sentiment to recover. This time...

Steven Holden

Screening for GEMs: January 2022

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

EMEA Sectors Deep-Dive. Active Positioning in the EMEA Region

The last decade has seen EMEA weights drift ever lower. We look in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks...

Steven Holden

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