Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1345" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1345:1">Aconex Ltd (ACX AU)</a> sells a cloud-based subscription service to a platform which helps construction companies manage complex projects. All documents related to a project can be stored, altered, and shared in a single place from the beginning of a project all the way through to project completion, making collaboration between parties, and management by the contractor easier. Aconex charges a subscription fee to a party in a construction project (which could be an asset owner, or the project…

Aconex Ltd (ACX AU) sells a cloud-based subscription service to a platform which helps construction companies manage complex projects. All documents related to a project can be stored, altered, and shared in a single place from the beginning of a project all the way through to project completion, making collaboration between parties, and management by the contractor easier. Aconex charges a subscription fee to a party in a construction project (which could be an asset owner, or the project…

Switzerland

Temenos AG provides integrated software solutions. The Company offers analytics, channels, financial crime mitigation, funds and securities, risk and compliance, and front office and digital banking suits for the management of administrative tasks at banks and financial services companies. Temenos operates worldwide.

Inficon Holding AG develops, manufactures and markets vacuum instruments used to monitor and control production processes.  The Company's products help semiconductor manufacturers to monitor and control their manufacturing processes and prepare computer chips for packaging.  Inficon also manufactures refrigerant and helium leak detectors, and vacuum control products.

ALSO Holding AG wholesales information technology and consumer electronics products.  The Company's products include computer hardware and software.

Lem Holding SA manufactures electrical components.  The Company produces transducers and sensors which measure high voltage currents, variable speed drives, uninterrupted power supplies, and testers for semiconductors.  Lem's components are used in locomotives, trams, trolleys, and the French TGV high-speed trains.  The Company sells its products internationally.

U-Blox AG develops global positioning systems (GPS) for a range of markets. The Company develops systems for navigation, automatic vehicle location, security, traffic navigation, security, traffic control, location based services, timing, and surveying.

Meyer Burger Technology AG supplies systems and production equipment to the photovoltaic, semiconductor and optoelectronic industries. The company produces equipment for solar production from wafers to building integrated solar systems.

Ascom Holding AG provides communication and security solutions. The Company offers wireless onsite communication solutions, wireless voice and message transmission systems, alarming, along with mobilization solutions. Ascom operates worldwide.

Kudelski SA designs and manufactures digital security products.  The Company produces digital security systems for digital television operators and content providers, smart cards for e-commerce, electronic voting and health cards, software for pay-per-view and video-on-demand television, encryption technology for digital television, digital recorders, and ticketing and access systems.

TE Connectivity Limited provides engineered electronic components, network solutions, undersea telecommunication systems, and wireless systems. The Company designs, manufactures, and markets products for customers in industries ranging from automotive, appliance, and aerospace and defense to telecommunications, computers, and consumer electronics.

Kingsoft Corporation Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company develops role-playing computer games and security, word processing, and spreadsheet software.

Technology One Limited is an Australian-based company that is engaged in the development, marketing, sales, implementation, support, and distribution of financial management and enterprise software solutions. The Company has operations in New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the South Pacific, and Malaysia.

Hundsun Technologies Inc develops application software for security firms, commercial banks, fund management firms, and other industries.  The Company also sells computer hardware and provides system integration services.

International Games System Co., Ltd. plans, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets software and hardware for arcade games, PC games, and Internet on-line games.

Varonis Systems, Inc. designs and develops data security software solutions. The Company offers data management systems to organize, manage, and protect unstructured and semi-structured data such as documents, spreadsheets, presentations, media files, and other business data. Varonis Systems operates worldwide.

Blackbaud, Inc. provides software and related services designed specifically for non-profit organizations. The Company's products and services enable non-profit organizations to increase donations, reduce fundraising costs, improve communication with constituents, manage their finances, and optimize internal operations.

Qualys, Inc. provides information technology security risk and compliance management solutions. The Company offers products for vulnerability management, policy compliance, web application scanning, malware detection, and associated security products. Qualys conducts business in the United States.

CommVault Systems, Inc. provides data management software applications and related services. The Company develops, markets, and sells a suite of data management software applications designed to protect and manage data throughout its lifecycle.

Trend Micro Incorporated develops and markets anti-virus computer software and internet security software.  The Company also sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

Tata Elxsi Limited manufactures computers and workstations besides providing system design, software development and integration services. The Group supplies its products to a number of industries, including the automotive, metals, consumer products, finance, IT & Communications, energy, chemicals, engineering, pharmaceuticals, entertainment and agro industries.

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Temenos AG (TEMN SW)

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

Focus on Outperforming EAFE SMID-Caps

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps...

Vermilion Research

Aconex (ACX AU) Takeover by Oracle

Aconex Ltd (ACX AU) sells a cloud-based subscription service to a platform which helps construction companies manage complex projects. All...

Travis Lundy

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