Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX up again as Tech pushes stocks higher;  Biden off to G7 in Japan as market expect a deal on return; Walmart lifts Sales, spurring optimism; Fed Hawks back</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.1% vs Cash;  As Japan Prepares for G7 Meeting, PM Kishida woos Global Semi CEOs; Panasonic tgts 200GW batteries by 2030; Ricoh-Toshiba merge OA-Expect more OA Consolidation. </li>
<li>NUGGET. Digital Transformation Japan - Still lots to do but legislation passed to expand DX that promotes the expansion in the use of My Number</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX up again as Tech pushes stocks higher;  Biden off to G7 in Japan as market expect a deal on return; Walmart lifts Sales, spurring optimism; Fed Hawks back
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.1% vs Cash;  As Japan Prepares for G7 Meeting, PM Kishida woos Global Semi CEOs; Panasonic tgts 200GW batteries by 2030; Ricoh-Toshiba merge OA-Expect more OA Consolidation. 
NUGGET. Digital Transformation Japan - Still lots to do but legislation passed to expand DX that promotes the expansion in the use of My Number


Ohayo Japan |Tech on Fire; Relentless Japan Equity Bid;NUGGET: "My Number" Expansion to Hasten JP DX

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Risk on as US Equities Jump on Debt Ceiling Hopes; China April House px rise;  Solid US Housing starts; Musk Says 2 new Blockbuster Telsa models to come. </li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs 1.4% vs Cash; Japan Equities poised to make new highs on US rally and weaker yen;  Japan GDP print 1.6%, better than expected;  Chinese Tourist Back </li>
<li>NUGGET. Rapidus aims to rejuvenate Japan's semiconductor industry by developing advanced 2-nanometer logic semiconductors, with plans for a prototype production line by 2025 and mass production by 2027.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Risk on as US Equities Jump on Debt Ceiling Hopes; China April House px rise;  Solid US Housing starts; Musk Says 2 new Blockbuster Telsa models to come. 
JAPAN.  NKY Futs 1.4% vs Cash; Japan Equities poised to make new highs on US rally and weaker yen;  Japan GDP print 1.6%, better than expected;  Chinese Tourist Back 
NUGGET. Rapidus aims to rejuvenate Japan's semiconductor industry by developing advanced 2-nanometer logic semiconductors, with plans for a prototype production line by 2025 and mass production by 2027.


Ohayo Japan|Relief Equity Rally, But Still No Deal; NUGGET: Rapidus: Key to Japan's Semi Resurgence

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Panasonic reported a 13% increase in sales and a 4% increase in net profit for fiscal 2023, driven by strong performance in its lifestyle, automotive, and connect segments.</li>
<li>Panasonic expects to beat Street consensus operating profit forecasts, reflecting the recovery of auto demand and recognition of tax credits for its battery production</li>
<li>Panasonic is a key beneficiary of continued expansion of EV market. Stock cheap at 8x EV/EBIT vs historical average of 11x</li>
</ul>


Panasonic reported a 13% increase in sales and a 4% increase in net profit for fiscal 2023, driven by strong performance in its lifestyle, automotive, and connect segments.
Panasonic expects to beat Street consensus operating profit forecasts, reflecting the recovery of auto demand and recognition of tax credits for its battery production
Panasonic is a key beneficiary of continued expansion of EV market. Stock cheap at 8x EV/EBIT vs historical average of 11x


Panasonic (6752) | Eyes Record Profit as Battery Business Shines

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX  up +0.8%WoW but slipped -0.2% Friday as Hawkish Waller came out amid weak US March Retail Sales data;  Musk jump's into Generative AI; Boeing Production Woes</li>
<li>JAPAN.NKY Futs flat vs Cash USDJPY 133.8; Security Concerns ahead of by-elections as PM Kishida smoke Bombed;  Panasonic to build 3rd US batt plant; JT ramps up heated stick products</li>
<li>NUGGET. Elon Musk's aggressive push into Generative AI to rival/beat ChatGPT; A boon for NDVIDIA and by extension, Japan's Advantest(6857)</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX  up +0.8%WoW but slipped -0.2% Friday as Hawkish Waller came out amid weak US March Retail Sales data;  Musk jump's into Generative AI; Boeing Production Woes
JAPAN.NKY Futs flat vs Cash USDJPY 133.8; Security Concerns ahead of by-elections as PM Kishida smoke Bombed;  Panasonic to build 3rd US batt plant; JT ramps up heated stick products
NUGGET. Elon Musk's aggressive push into Generative AI to rival/beat ChatGPT; A boon for NDVIDIA and by extension, Japan's Advantest(6857)


Good Morning Japan| Recession Fears Spook Equities;NUGGET- Musk Jumps in AI Race, Boon for Advantest

Japan

Panasonic Corporation manufactures electric and electronic products. The Company produces home appliances, car navigation systems, digital devices, computer peripherals, telecommunications, industrial equipment, and electronic parts. Panasonic has associated companies around the world.

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Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan |Tech on Fire; Relentless Japan Equity Bid;NUGGET: "My Number" Expansion to Hasten JP DX

NKY Futs +1.1% vs Cash; As Japan Prepares for G7 Meeting, PM Kishida woos Global Semi CEOs; Panasonic tgts 200GW batteries by 2030; Ricoh-Toshiba...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan|Relief Equity Rally, But Still No Deal; NUGGET: Rapidus: Key to Japan's Semi Resurgence

Risk on as US Equities Jump on Debt Ceiling Hopes; China April House px rise; Solid US Housing starts; Japan Equities poised to make new highs...

Mark Chadwick

Panasonic (6752) | Eyes Record Profit as Battery Business Shines

Panasonic announces its financial results for FY3/23 and forecasts a beat for FY3/24. Panasonic remains a key beneficiary of EV market expansion....

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan| Recession Fears Spook Equities;NUGGET- Musk Jumps in AI Race, Boon for Advantest

Expect a broadly quiet start in Japan. Panasonic plans to establish its third US battery plant;. JT increasing its focus on heated stick products;...

Mark Chadwick

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