Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

MMG Limited plans to raise around US$220m via a primary placement. It plans to use the proceeds from the placement for potential future acquisitions and investments.In this insight, we'll run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about deal dynamics.

MMG Limited plans to raise around US$220m via a primary placement. It plans to use the proceeds from the placement for potential future acquisitions and investments.In this insight, we'll run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about deal dynamics.

MMG Limited Placement - Share near Highs Driven by Cooper Prices, Which Too Are at Highs

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> has, for the last year, been subject to dramatic corporate actions which have roiled the share price, and expectations. The launch last May of a Delisting Proposal by the promoters when the shares were trading sub Rs. 90/share led to a rally in the shares which could not even track peer stock performance, and when the Delisting Proposal failed, shares dropped to a dramatically low level, despite the fact that Vedanta owned its shareholders a substantial dividend from the pay-through of dividends from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a>. As commodity prices continued to rally, and VEDL paid a big dividend in October 2020, it looked like the time to double-up. Everyone "knew" the promoters were willing to pay 40-50% than the post-Delisting Proposal failure to take the whole thing private. I expected a buyback. 10 days after the CEO said "we have no plans to buy more shares" we got an off-market block purchase of 5% by the promoters in December at Rs 160, followed a couple of weeks later by a proposed Open Offer to buy another 10%, which was later upsized and up-priced - by 47%, and still the Promoters could only get 10% of the 17.5% they sought to buy. A month on from that and the shares are nearly 10% higher than the Open Offer Price while a Peer Basket is largely unchanged from two months back. This means VEDL shares are again (as they were just before  at their high point against Peers since pre-pandemic. The current situation of covid-19 and variant spread in India is terrible and one could imagine that some drastic measures may still be taken to contain the spread, which could slow down the economy dramatically. The 70% catchup vs peers to reach the December 2019 level (as of post-Delisting Proposal failure) has now been caught up. The VEDL 2-3yr forward EV/EBIT ratio is now less than 1 turn from its long-term average spread to peers. More below the fold.

Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) has, for the last year, been subject to dramatic corporate actions which have roiled the share price, and expectations. The launch last May of a Delisting Proposal by the promoters when the shares were trading sub Rs. 90/share led to a rally in the shares which could not even track peer stock performance, and when the Delisting Proposal failed, shares dropped to a dramatically low level, despite the fact that Vedanta owned its shareholders a substantial dividend from the pay-through of dividends from Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN). As commodity prices continued to rally, and VEDL paid a big dividend in October 2020, it looked like the time to double-up. Everyone "knew" the promoters were willing to pay 40-50% than the post-Delisting Proposal failure to take the whole thing private. I expected a buyback. 10 days after the CEO said "we have no plans to buy more shares" we got an off-market block purchase of 5% by the promoters in December at Rs 160, followed a couple of weeks later by a proposed Open Offer to buy another 10%, which was later upsized and up-priced - by 47%, and still the Promoters could only get 10% of the 17.5% they sought to buy. A month on from that and the shares are nearly 10% higher than the Open Offer Price while a Peer Basket is largely unchanged from two months back. This means VEDL shares are again (as they were just before  at their high point against Peers since pre-pandemic. The current situation of covid-19 and variant spread in India is terrible and one could imagine that some drastic measures may still be taken to contain the spread, which could slow down the economy dramatically. The 70% catchup vs peers to reach the December 2019 level (as of post-Delisting Proposal failure) has now been caught up. The VEDL 2-3yr forward EV/EBIT ratio is now less than 1 turn from its long-term average spread to peers. More below the fold.  

Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead

Seven Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> aims to raise around A$500m (US$38m) via an institutional placement to primarily help reduce its gearing and provide more financing flexibility. The stock has done well over the past few years but is now trading close to its all time highs.

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) aims to raise around A$500m (US$38m) via an institutional placement to primarily help reduce its gearing and provide more financing flexibility. The stock has done well over the past few years but is now trading close to its all time highs. 

Seven Group Holdings Placement - Good Track Record but Still a Large Deal to Digest

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

2020 saw Asia Pacific activist campaigns down 9.7% YoY. Considering the issues which played out over the year this is a better than expected result. What is key is that Asia remained resilient compared to Europe which saw a 16% YoY decline, in activism campaigns respectively. Sifting through the data highlights some interesting and share price impactful trends when looking at how Activism may play out in 2021.

2020 saw Asia Pacific activist campaigns down 9.7% YoY. Considering the issues which played out over the year this is a better than expected result. What is key is that Asia remained resilient compared to Europe which saw a 16% YoY decline, in activism campaigns respectively. Sifting through the data highlights some interesting and share price impactful trends when looking at how Activism may play out in 2021.

Notes from the Silk Road: Activism - 2020 Review Reveals Some Interesting Trends

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

In this analysis, we screen for stocks in the Global universe that are showing signs of a turnaround.  We first look for depressed stocks, those that have fallen from high ownership levels to low ownership levels over the past decade.  We then look for stocks seeing positive momentum over the last 6-months.  A total of just 6 stocks satisfy our screening criteria, led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ubs-group-ag-e82c0d58-83f2-4e12-bcb6-976202a4e200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27909:1" rel="noopener">UBS Group AG (UBSG SW)</a>  Analysis taken from our Global research, covering 386 active global equity funds with AUM of $850bn.

In this analysis, we screen for stocks in the Global universe that are showing signs of a turnaround.  We first look for depressed stocks, those that have fallen from high ownership levels to low ownership levels over the past decade.  We then look for stocks seeing positive momentum over the last 6-months.  A total of just 6 stocks satisfy our screening criteria, led by Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) and UBS Group AG (UBSG SW)   Analysis taken from our Global research, covering 386 active global equity funds with AUM of $850bn.

United Kingdom

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds.  Anglo American PLC has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia and Australia.

Antofagasta plc owns and operates copper mines in Chile and conducts exploration activities in Chile and Peru.  The Group also operates a rail network servicing the mining region of northern Chile, as well as operates a concession for the distribution of water in this region.

Centamin plc is a mid-tier gold producer with gold production from the Sukari gold mine in southern Egypt. The company owns exploration and development assets in Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire and Ethiopia.

Hill & Smith Holdings PLC manufactures products for the infrastructure, galvanizing, building, and construction industries.  The Company produces traffic barriers, fencing, gantries, lighting columns, pipe supports, steel storage tanks, and variable message signs; plastic drainage pipe and pipe supports; powder coatings; and traffic counting data collection devices.

Hochschild Mining plc explores, mines, processes, and sells silver and gold.

Pan African Resources PLC engages in the exploration and mining of gold and platinum-group element (PGE) properties in South Africa. The company operates through five segments: Barberton Mines, Evander Mines, Phoenix Platinum, Corporate and Growth Projects, and Funding Company. Its PGE properties comprise platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium deposits. The company?s assets include Barberton Mines comprising three gold mines and the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Plant, as well as Evander Mines consisting of a gold mine and the Evander Tailings Treatment Plant in Mpumalanga; and Phoenix Platinum, a Chrome Tailing Retreatment Plant located in Rustenburg, South Africa. It also provides funding services. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Central Asia Metals plc, through its subsidiaries, processes and produces copper cathodes from secondary mining techniques. The company is also involved in the identification, acquisition, and development of base and precious metals deposits. It owns 75% interest in the Copper Bay tailings project located in Chile. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Griffin Mining Limited is a Bermudian mining company, based in London. The Group has a number of interests in mining exploration and development projects throughout the world, the principal of which is a zinc-gold project in China.

Ecora Resources PLC is a royalty company focused on supporting the supply of commodities. Mining operations located in Australia, Canada, and South America.

Metals Exploration plc engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mining properties in the western Pacific Rim region. The company?s principal asset is its 100% owned Runruno Gold-Molybdenum project, which is located north of the Philippines. It also explores for zinc, copper, and nickel deposits. Metals Exploration plc was founded in 2004 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

Rio Tinto plc is an international mining company. The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO AU.

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Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)

Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead

VEDL has been a rocket the last several months. And it still "owes" dividends of ~Rs 24/share to its shareholders. HZL results were salutary, but...

Travis Lundy

Seven Group Holdings Placement - Good Track Record but Still a Large Deal to Digest

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) aims to raise around A$500m (US$38m) via an institutional placement to primarily help reduce its gearing and provide...

Sumeet Singh

Notes from the Silk Road: Activism - 2020 Review Reveals Some Interesting Trends

2020 activism numbers are in with some interesting underlying trends reflecting possibilities of how campaigns in 2021 & 2022 may evolve notably...

David Lepper

Global Turnaround Stocks

Both UBS and Freeport-McMoran top our list as stocks with depressed fund ownership levels and rising momentum among active Global managers.

Steven Holden

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MMG Limited Placement - Share near Highs Driven by Cooper Prices, Which Too Are at Highs

MMG Limited plans to raise around US$220m via a primary placement. It plans to use the proceeds from the placement for potential future...

Sumeet Singh

Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead

VEDL has been a rocket the last several months. And it still "owes" dividends of ~Rs 24/share to its shareholders. HZL results were salutary, but...

Travis Lundy

Seven Group Holdings Placement - Good Track Record but Still a Large Deal to Digest

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) aims to raise around A$500m (US$38m) via an institutional placement to primarily help reduce its gearing and provide...

Sumeet Singh

Notes from the Silk Road: Activism - 2020 Review Reveals Some Interesting Trends

2020 activism numbers are in with some interesting underlying trends reflecting possibilities of how campaigns in 2021 & 2022 may evolve notably...

David Lepper

Global Turnaround Stocks

Both UBS and Freeport-McMoran top our list as stocks with depressed fund ownership levels and rising momentum among active Global managers.

Steven Holden