European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <strong>discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during January</strong>. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.5% (vs. 49.1%); GBL, 37.1% (vs. 36.6%); Heineken Holding, 16.6% (vs. 16.7%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 3.8% (vs. 5.4%); Investor B, 7.9% (vs. 13.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 42% (vs. 37.1%). The spread of Rio DLC widened to 25.2% (vs. 24.2%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: in holding trades, GBL/vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.</li>
</ul>


The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during January. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.5% (vs. 49.1%); GBL, 37.1% (vs. 36.6%); Heineken Holding, 16.6% (vs. 16.7%); 
Industrivärden C, 3.8% (vs. 5.4%); Investor B, 7.9% (vs. 13.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 42% (vs. 37.1%). The spread of Rio DLC widened to 25.2% (vs. 24.2%).
What seems interesting: in holding trades, GBL/vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January’24 Report

<ul>
<li>The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during October. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.8% (vs. 49.2%); GBL, 35.5% (vs. 35.3%); Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 14.5%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 6% (vs. 7.4%); Investor B, 16.5% (vs. 15.4%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 40.9% (vs. 41.1%). The spread of Rio DLC widened to 21% (vs. 15.8%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.</li>
</ul>


The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during October. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.8% (vs. 49.2%); GBL, 35.5% (vs. 35.3%); Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 14.5%); 
Industrivärden C, 6% (vs. 7.4%); Investor B, 16.5% (vs. 15.4%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 40.9% (vs. 41.1%). The spread of Rio DLC widened to 21% (vs. 15.8%).
What seems interesting: holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October’23 Report

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Copper is trading above 5.05 USD/lbs and has rallied over 29% YTD. Jeff Currie was quoted as saying "<strong>Copper is the New Oil"</strong>
</li>
<li>Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, copying the uranium playbook. Removing physical copper from the market.</li>
<li>Uranium in 2023 and Cacao in 1H24 show what commodity prices can do if investors panic. Is copper making a parabolic move next?</li>
</ul>


Copper is trading above 5.05 USD/lbs and has rallied over 29% YTD. Jeff Currie was quoted as saying "Copper is the New Oil"

Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, copying the uranium playbook. Removing physical copper from the market.
Uranium in 2023 and Cacao in 1H24 show what commodity prices can do if investors panic. Is copper making a parabolic move next?


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a> has been in an arbitration proceeding against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)</a> since April 2024.</li>
<li>After initial hearings earlier in 1H24 we expect final arguments next week. The arbitration committee verdict should come by late 3Q24.</li>
<li>At stake is the relationship and ownership arrangement between ETG and RIO's in Oyu Tolgoi, one of the world's largest copper mines. Just concluded Mongolian elections clear the last hurdle.</li>
</ul>



Entree Resources (ETG CN) has been in an arbitration proceeding against Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) since April 2024.
After initial hearings earlier in 1H24 we expect final arguments next week. The arbitration committee verdict should come by late 3Q24.
At stake is the relationship and ownership arrangement between ETG and RIO's in Oyu Tolgoi, one of the world's largest copper mines. Just concluded Mongolian elections clear the last hurdle.


Mongolia Elections Behind Us and Rio Versus Entree Arbitration Ruling Expected by Late 3Q24

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 44.5% (vs. 46.8%); GBL, 43.6% (vs. 42.9%); Heineken Holding, 18.4% (vs. 18.3%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 2.4% (vs. 2.5%); Investor B, 9.9% (vs. 12%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.8% (vs. 35.3%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.7% (vs. 23%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 44.5% (vs. 46.8%); GBL, 43.6% (vs. 42.9%); Heineken Holding, 18.4% (vs. 18.3%); 
Industrivärden C, 2.4% (vs. 2.5%); Investor B, 9.9% (vs. 12%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.8% (vs. 35.3%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.7% (vs. 23%).
What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June'24 Report

United Kingdom

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds.  Anglo American PLC has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia and Australia.

Antofagasta plc owns and operates copper mines in Chile and conducts exploration activities in Chile and Peru.  The Group also operates a rail network servicing the mining region of northern Chile, as well as operates a concession for the distribution of water in this region.

Centamin plc is a mid-tier gold producer with gold production from the Sukari gold mine in southern Egypt. The company owns exploration and development assets in Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire and Ethiopia.

Hill & Smith Holdings PLC manufactures products for the infrastructure, galvanizing, building, and construction industries.  The Company produces traffic barriers, fencing, gantries, lighting columns, pipe supports, steel storage tanks, and variable message signs; plastic drainage pipe and pipe supports; powder coatings; and traffic counting data collection devices.

Hochschild Mining plc explores, mines, processes, and sells silver and gold.

Pan African Resources PLC engages in the exploration and mining of gold and platinum-group element (PGE) properties in South Africa. The company operates through five segments: Barberton Mines, Evander Mines, Phoenix Platinum, Corporate and Growth Projects, and Funding Company. Its PGE properties comprise platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium deposits. The company?s assets include Barberton Mines comprising three gold mines and the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Plant, as well as Evander Mines consisting of a gold mine and the Evander Tailings Treatment Plant in Mpumalanga; and Phoenix Platinum, a Chrome Tailing Retreatment Plant located in Rustenburg, South Africa. It also provides funding services. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Central Asia Metals plc, through its subsidiaries, processes and produces copper cathodes from secondary mining techniques. The company is also involved in the identification, acquisition, and development of base and precious metals deposits. It owns 75% interest in the Copper Bay tailings project located in Chile. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Griffin Mining Limited is a Bermudian mining company, based in London. The Group has a number of interests in mining exploration and development projects throughout the world, the principal of which is a zinc-gold project in China.

Ecora Resources PLC is a royalty company focused on supporting the supply of commodities. Mining operations located in Australia, Canada, and South America.

Metals Exploration plc engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mining properties in the western Pacific Rim region. The company?s principal asset is its 100% owned Runruno Gold-Molybdenum project, which is located north of the Philippines. It also explores for zinc, copper, and nickel deposits. Metals Exploration plc was founded in 2004 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

Rio Tinto plc is an international mining company. The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO AU.

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Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January’24 Report

Discounts to NAV for covered holdcos mainly tightened in January. What seems interesting: Interesting trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos in October showed no clear trend. Interesting aspects include holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Junior Copper Miners: Time for Lift-Off?

Copper surges as demand increases. Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, potentially impacting market supply. Will copper follow uranium and...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Mongolia Elections Behind Us and Rio Versus Entree Arbitration Ruling Expected by Late 3Q24

Entree Resources in arbitration against Rio Tinto over Oyu Tolgoi ownership, final verdict expected in late 3Q24 after Mongolian elections.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January’24 Report

​Discounts to NAV for covered holdcos mainly tightened in January. What seems interesting: Interesting trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October’23 Report

​Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos in October showed no clear trend. Interesting aspects include holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Junior Copper Miners: Time for Lift-Off?

​Copper surges as demand increases. Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, potentially impacting market supply. Will copper follow uranium and...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Mongolia Elections Behind Us and Rio Versus Entree Arbitration Ruling Expected by Late 3Q24

​Entree Resources in arbitration against Rio Tinto over Oyu Tolgoi ownership, final verdict expected in late 3Q24 after Mongolian elections.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Discounts to NAV for covered holdcos mainly tightened in January. What seems interesting: Interesting trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Porsche SE...

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos in October showed no clear trend. Interesting aspects include holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets,...

Copper surges as demand increases. Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, potentially impacting market supply. Will copper follow uranium and...

Entree Resources in arbitration against Rio Tinto over Oyu Tolgoi ownership, final verdict expected in late 3Q24 after Mongolian elections.