Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chukyo-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20132:1" rel="noopener">Chukyo Bank (8530 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aichi-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15259:1" rel="noopener">Aichi Bank (8527 JP)</a> have decided to join forces to become the largest regional lender in the Nagoya area. </li>
<li>This is <em>probably</em> driven by MUFJ's efforts to rid itself of non-core assets, but in doing so, it is allowing for an accretive structure for minorities.</li>
<li>This ends up being a cheap bank on a slightly complicated pro-forma basis.</li>
</ul>



Chukyo Bank (8530 JP) and Aichi Bank (8527 JP) have decided to join forces to become the largest regional lender in the Nagoya area. 
This is probably driven by MUFJ's efforts to rid itself of non-core assets, but in doing so, it is allowing for an accretive structure for minorities.
This ends up being a cheap bank on a slightly complicated pro-forma basis.


Chukyo (8530) + Aichi (8527) Bank to Create Aichi Fin'l Group - Interesting Structure Adds Value

<ul>
<li>Silchester has written letters to four Japanese regional banks where they hold large stakes asking for higher dividends and payout ratios. It has proposed a special div AGM agenda item.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-iwate-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6171:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Iwate (8345 JP)</a> is nearly 40% held by cross-holders and government-affiliated entities, and Real World Float is less than 50%. Winning at the AGM is tough.</li>
<li>The collection of banks is mixed. But this one is cheap. Cheap as chips. Or cheaper.</li>
</ul>


Silchester has written letters to four Japanese regional banks where they hold large stakes asking for higher dividends and payout ratios. It has proposed a special div AGM agenda item.

Bank Of Iwate (8345 JP) is nearly 40% held by cross-holders and government-affiliated entities, and Real World Float is less than 50%. Winning at the AGM is tough.
The collection of banks is mixed. But this one is cheap. Cheap as chips. Or cheaper.


JAPAN ACTIVISM: Silchester Goes After Bk of Iwate - Cheaper Than Chips

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade</li>
<li>There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks</li>
<li>This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level</li>
</ul>


Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade
There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks
This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nomura Research Institute / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Nomura Holdings is looking to raise around US$486m via selling 2.5% of Nomura Research.</li>
<li>This is not the first sale by Nomura and hence, might not come as a complete surprise.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>


Nomura Holdings is looking to raise around US$486m via selling 2.5% of Nomura Research.
This is not the first sale by Nomura and hence, might not come as a complete surprise.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Nomura Research Placement - Has Sold Before, Deal Might Be More Reflective on the Parent's Results

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan Financials have suffered a long-term decline in exposure.  Ownership has dropped from 56% of managers in December 2013 to just 31.2% today.</li>
<li>However, there are signs that these ownership declines are starting to reverse course, led by manager buying in Japan Post Holdings, Ms&amp;Ad Insurance and Sompo Holdings</li>
<li>If recent activity suggests a shift in sentiment for Japan Financials stocks, there is plenty of room for ownership levels to move higher from here.</li>
</ul>


Japan Financials have suffered a long-term decline in exposure.  Ownership has dropped from 56% of managers in December 2013 to just 31.2% today.
However, there are signs that these ownership declines are starting to reverse course, led by manager buying in Japan Post Holdings, Ms&amp;Ad Insurance and Sompo Holdings
If recent activity suggests a shift in sentiment for Japan Financials stocks, there is plenty of room for ownership levels to move higher from here.


Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Chukyo (8530) + Aichi (8527) Bank to Create Aichi Fin'l Group - Interesting Structure Adds Value

Aichi and Chukyo Banks will merge to become top lender in Nagoya ahead of current #1 and cheap good regional Bk of Nagoya. Transaction structure is...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Silchester Goes After Bk of Iwate - Cheaper Than Chips

Bank of Iwate is the smallest (so far) of Silchester Int'l Investors' regional bank AGM proposal letters. It owns 11%. This one is tough too, but...

Travis Lundy

Standard Chartered - Nickel and Dimes

The surge in nickel prices and the wrong-way trade(s) will mean bank counter-party risk, with STAN being highlighted in reports. ROA risk can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Nomura Research Placement - Has Sold Before, Deal Might Be More Reflective on the Parent's Results

Nomura Holdings is looking to raise around US$486m via selling 2.5% of Nomura Research. This won't be the first selldown by the parent.

Sumeet Singh

Japan Financials: Bottoming Out?

Japan Financials have suffered a long-term decline in exposure among active Global fund managers. However, there are signs that ownership levels...

Steven Holden

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