FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

I was working on a bigger piece on HK vs Singapore which I will put out later, and reviewing political classifications of economies, when I saw a good comment from Ray Dalio on Trump and his invocation of Ayn Rand. I was also in the middle of reading the history of Athens and re-reading Aristotle’s Constitution of Athens, which added perspective to Dalio. There is a lot to apply to today which I think is worth noting.Quick conclusions before delving deeper:<ul><li>Ray Dalio is right to invoke Ayn Rand and flag the positives Trump could bring about;</li><li>But Let’s also keep in mind how deep the recent hole banks, Bernanke and Obama dug;</li><li>Looking at Aristotle as well, we might say that Trump’s partial democratic election has been to install an Aristocracy…this will certainly be interesting;</li><li>There are some really good free reads to turn to for a quick study of Ayn Rand;</li><li>When we listen back to Ayn Rand, we see that she disliked MNCs/Corporations because of their manipulation of government…Let’s see where Trump takes this.</li></ul>

I was working on a bigger piece on HK vs Singapore which I will put out later, and reviewing political classifications of economies, when I saw a good comment from Ray Dalio on Trump and his invocation of Ayn Rand. I was also in the middle of reading the history of Athens and re-reading Aristotle’s Constitution of Athens, which added perspective to Dalio. There is a lot to apply to today which I think is worth noting.Quick conclusions before delving deeper:Ray Dalio is right to invoke Ayn Rand and flag the positives Trump could bring about;But Let’s also keep in mind how deep the recent hole banks, Bernanke and Obama dug;Looking at Aristotle as well, we might say that Trump’s partial democratic election has been to install an Aristocracy…this will certainly be interesting;There are some really good free reads to turn to for a quick study of Ayn Rand;When we listen back to Ayn Rand, we see that she disliked MNCs/Corporations because of their manipulation of government…Let’s see where Trump takes this.

Trump Not Likely to Halt Decline of US. But Ray Dalio Makes Good Case in Bringing Back Ayn Rand

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report, Quiddity Advisors

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul><li>"Overweights" - Japan and Taiwan</li><li>"Underweights" - India, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines</li><li>Recent Upgrades - Japan, Taiwan, and Australia. </li><li>Recent Downgrades - Hong Kong, China, Korea, India, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines</li><li>Key Sector Overweights - APAC financials, China consumer discretionary, Korea/Taiwan IT (semiconductors), Australia and Japan materials, Malaysia and Indonesia plantations</li><li>Key Sector Underweights - APAC consumer staples, APAC utilities, Hong Kong property</li><li>Top Bullish Themes - Macau tourism, APAC "value"factor tilt, Indian crop yield enhancement</li><li>Top Bearish Themes - Japan "minimum volatility" factor tilt and high dividend stable "bond-proxy" equities</li><li>"Top Pick" equities identified in key sectors and themes</li></ul>This is the final in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

"Overweights" - Japan and Taiwan"Underweights" - India, Singapore, Indonesia, and the PhilippinesRecent Upgrades - Japan, Taiwan, and Australia. Recent Downgrades - Hong Kong, China, Korea, India, Thailand, Indonesia and the PhilippinesKey Sector Overweights - APAC financials, China consumer discretionary, Korea/Taiwan IT (semiconductors), Australia and Japan materials, Malaysia and Indonesia plantationsKey Sector Underweights - APAC consumer staples, APAC utilities, Hong Kong propertyTop Bullish Themes - Macau tourism, APAC "value"factor tilt, Indian crop yield enhancementTop Bearish Themes - Japan "minimum volatility" factor tilt and high dividend stable "bond-proxy" equities"Top Pick" equities identified in key sectors and themesThis is the final in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: Investment Outlook - Emerging Markets Trumped but Japan Escapes Value Trap

Country and Sector Earnings Revision Summary<ul><li>J-curve effects apparent in Europe, Australia, and Japan</li><li>Emerging market earnings revision underperformance led by China</li><li>Financial sector earnings recovery, especially in Japan</li><li>Consumer discretionary earnings under pressure</li><li>Earnings momentum in telecoms fading since last earnings update</li></ul>This is the third in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

Country and Sector Earnings Revision SummaryJ-curve effects apparent in Europe, Australia, and JapanEmerging market earnings revision underperformance led by ChinaFinancial sector earnings recovery, especially in JapanConsumer discretionary earnings under pressureEarnings momentum in telecoms fading since last earnings updateThis is the third in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: Country and Sector Earnings Revision Summary (Dec 2016)

<ul><li>Japanese valuations are compelling</li><li>Emerging markets have re-rated</li><li>Korea discount intact</li><li>MSCI China significantly lower valuation than MSCI China A</li><li>India and emerging ASEAN valuation premium at risk with rising bond yields</li><li>Australia and Hong Kong fully at a premium to developed market peers</li></ul>This is the second in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

Japanese valuations are compellingEmerging markets have re-ratedKorea discount intactMSCI China significantly lower valuation than MSCI China AIndia and emerging ASEAN valuation premium at risk with rising bond yieldsAustralia and Hong Kong fully at a premium to developed market peersThis is the second in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: APAC Valuation Snapshot (Dec 2016)

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

Shinkin Central Bank is a central bank for shinkin banks nationwide, operating as a cooperative financial institution.  The Bank has developed businesses in a variety of fields that contribute the shinkin banking industry.  The Bank's services include enhancement of the credit standing, efficient use of shikin bank's surplus funds, and settlement of domestic exchange transaction.

Resona Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides financial services, including banking, trust operations, and credit card services. Resona Holdings also offers consulting services related to personal loans, asset management, and asset succession.

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established jointly by Chuo Mitsui Trust Holdings and Sumitomo Trust and Banking. As a financial group, the Bank provides trust banking business, as well as securities brokerage, assets management, and related financial services.

The Chiba Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Chiba Prefecture. The Bank offers general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions. The Chiba Bank also develops software and provides financial services such as leasing, securities brokerage, letter of credit, and credit cards.

Concordia Financial Group, Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Bank of Yokohama and Higashi-Nippon Bank. The Company provides banking services and other financial services.

Fukuoka Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of the Bank of Fukuoka and Kumamoto Family Bank. As a financial group, the Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, foreign currency transactions. The Company also provides other financial services such as credit card, letter of credit, and leasing services.

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

National Australia Bank Limited is an international banking group which operates in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the United States.  The Group offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investment banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trustee and nominee services.

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

United Overseas Bank Limited provides a wide range of financial services including personal financial services, wealth management, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, transaction banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management and insurance.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is a full service commercial bank. The Bank offers a wide range of products and services such as personal, commercial, and corporate banking services, including deposit accounts, loans, and investments. Kotak Mahindra Bank serves customers in India.

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. is a diversified financial services organization.  The Company provides regional banking, wholesale banking, and asset management services nationally and in the Company's primary regional markets.

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

Westpac Banking Corporation offers general and savings banking services.  The Company provides investment portfolio management and advice, insurance services,  consumer finance, and money market services among other services.  Westpac Banking Corp. serves individuals, businesses, and corporations worldwide.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets. It is evident that a significant...

Greg Gibbs

Trump Not Likely to Halt Decline of US. But Ray Dalio Makes Good Case in Bringing Back Ayn Rand

I was working on a bigger piece on HK vs Singapore which I will put out later, and reviewing political classifications of economies, when I saw a...

Charles De Trenck

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: Investment Outlook - Emerging Markets Trumped but Japan Escapes Value Trap

"Overweights" - Japan and Taiwan "Underweights" - India, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines Recent Upgrades - Japan, Taiwan, and...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: Country and Sector Earnings Revision Summary (Dec 2016)

Country and Sector Earnings Revision Summary J-curve effects apparent in Europe, Australia, and Japan Emerging market earnings revision...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: APAC Valuation Snapshot (Dec 2016)

Japanese valuations are compelling Emerging markets have re-rated Korea discount intact MSCI China significantly lower valuation than MSCI China...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)