Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.</li>
<li>Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.</li>
</ul>


We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.
Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.
Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.


Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Japan Hotel Reit Investment / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-hotel-reit-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:144:1" rel="noopener">Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$214m to partly fund the acquisition of four hotel assets.</li>
<li>The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, most of which have managed to perform well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP) aims to raise around US$214m to partly fund the acquisition of four hotel assets.
The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, most of which have managed to perform well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Japan Hotel REIT Placement - Relatively Large Deal but It Is Accretive

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ms-ad-insurance-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:631:1" rel="noopener">MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> are looking to raise US$691m from trimming their respective stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>While this appears to be another cross-shareholding unwind in Japan, we would argue that the selldown isn’t outright well-flagged given the uncertainty of timing the selldown.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) are looking to raise US$691m from trimming their respective stakes in Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP).
While this appears to be another cross-shareholding unwind in Japan, we would argue that the selldown isn’t outright well-flagged given the uncertainty of timing the selldown.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Mitsui & Co Placement - Another Cross-Shareholding Unwind, This Is a Small One to Digest

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ms-ad-insurance-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:631:1" rel="noopener">MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> would sell 14.9mm shares in an offering.</li>
<li>This will get priced today or tomorrow, sold to institutional investors. This is ¥107bn, 4 days of ADV and 1% of shares out. It is not dilutive. </li>
<li>Mitsui &amp; Co has a buyback program with ¥123bn left til end-Sep, when presumably it will reload. Looks easy today, but measuring Mitsui &amp; Co vs Peers is less flattering.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) announced that MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) would sell 14.9mm shares in an offering.
This will get priced today or tomorrow, sold to institutional investors. This is ¥107bn, 4 days of ADV and 1% of shares out. It is not dilutive. 
Mitsui &amp; Co has a buyback program with ¥123bn left til end-Sep, when presumably it will reload. Looks easy today, but measuring Mitsui &amp; Co vs Peers is less flattering.


Mitsui & Co (8031) - ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Norinchukin Bank plans to sell JPY10 trillion of foreign government bonds, crystallising a chunk of the JPY2.19 trillion of unrealized bond losses, as it also looks to raise JPY1.2 trillion</li>
<li>We explore the bigger cap banks’ foreign bond holding and unrealized gains or losses, including those of Japan Post Bank; Norinchukin is clearly the negative outlier of this peer group</li>
<li>We do not see Norinchukin as a canary in the coalmine for the big-caps’ risks on foreign bond exposure; we stick with buys on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia</li>
</ul>


Norinchukin Bank plans to sell JPY10 trillion of foreign government bonds, crystallising a chunk of the JPY2.19 trillion of unrealized bond losses, as it also looks to raise JPY1.2 trillion
We explore the bigger cap banks’ foreign bond holding and unrealized gains or losses, including those of Japan Post Bank; Norinchukin is clearly the negative outlier of this peer group
We do not see Norinchukin as a canary in the coalmine for the big-caps’ risks on foreign bond exposure; we stick with buys on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia


Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

Shinkin Central Bank is a central bank for shinkin banks nationwide, operating as a cooperative financial institution.  The Bank has developed businesses in a variety of fields that contribute the shinkin banking industry.  The Bank's services include enhancement of the credit standing, efficient use of shikin bank's surplus funds, and settlement of domestic exchange transaction.

Resona Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides financial services, including banking, trust operations, and credit card services. Resona Holdings also offers consulting services related to personal loans, asset management, and asset succession.

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established jointly by Chuo Mitsui Trust Holdings and Sumitomo Trust and Banking. As a financial group, the Bank provides trust banking business, as well as securities brokerage, assets management, and related financial services.

The Chiba Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Chiba Prefecture. The Bank offers general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions. The Chiba Bank also develops software and provides financial services such as leasing, securities brokerage, letter of credit, and credit cards.

Concordia Financial Group, Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Bank of Yokohama and Higashi-Nippon Bank. The Company provides banking services and other financial services.

Fukuoka Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of the Bank of Fukuoka and Kumamoto Family Bank. As a financial group, the Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, foreign currency transactions. The Company also provides other financial services such as credit card, letter of credit, and leasing services.

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

National Australia Bank Limited is an international banking group which operates in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the United States.  The Group offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investment banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trustee and nominee services.

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

United Overseas Bank Limited provides a wide range of financial services including personal financial services, wealth management, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, transaction banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management and insurance.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is a full service commercial bank. The Bank offers a wide range of products and services such as personal, commercial, and corporate banking services, including deposit accounts, loans, and investments. Kotak Mahindra Bank serves customers in India.

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. is a diversified financial services organization.  The Company provides regional banking, wholesale banking, and asset management services nationally and in the Company's primary regional markets.

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

Westpac Banking Corporation offers general and savings banking services.  The Company provides investment portfolio management and advice, insurance services,  consumer finance, and money market services among other services.  Westpac Banking Corp. serves individuals, businesses, and corporations worldwide.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

We look at how important or unimportant core banking income is to 50 banks in Japan, to better understand where divesting cross shareholding can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Hotel REIT Placement - Relatively Large Deal but It Is Accretive

Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP) aims to raise around US$214m to partly fund the acquisition of four hotel assets. In this note, we will run...

Sumeet Singh

Mitsui & Co Placement - Another Cross-Shareholding Unwind, This Is a Small One to Digest

MS&AD Insurance (8725 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) are looking to raise US$691m from trimming their respective stakes in...

Clarence Chu

Mitsui & Co (8031) - ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering

MSAD Insurance, SMBC are selling 1.0% of TSO of Mitsui & Co (8031). Small deal at US$670mm and 3.7d of ADV on popular name. There's a buyback to...

Travis Lundy

Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

We look at how important or unimportant core banking income is to 50 banks in Japan, to better understand where divesting cross shareholding can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Hotel REIT Placement - Relatively Large Deal but It Is Accretive

Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP) aims to raise around US$214m to partly fund the acquisition of four hotel assets. In this note, we will run...

Sumeet Singh

Mitsui & Co Placement - Another Cross-Shareholding Unwind, This Is a Small One to Digest

MS&AD Insurance (8725 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) are looking to raise US$691m from trimming their respective stakes in...

Clarence Chu

Mitsui & Co (8031) - ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering

MSAD Insurance, SMBC are selling 1.0% of TSO of Mitsui & Co (8031). Small deal at US$670mm and 3.7d of ADV on popular name. There's a buyback to...

Travis Lundy

Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

​Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...

Victor Galliano

Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...