Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost</li>
<li>Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter</li>
<li>The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024</li>
</ul>


The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost
Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter
The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024


<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues remain in a decline, although that decline has slowed.</li>
<li>Prices appear to have reached cost.  They should follow cost declines until a shortage returns.</li>
<li>The timing of the next shortage is still in question.</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues remain in a decline, although that decline has slowed.
Prices appear to have reached cost.  They should follow cost declines until a shortage returns.
The timing of the next shortage is still in question.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>United Microelectronics ADRs trading at a discount, risk-reward appears compelling.</li>
<li>TSMC has normalized; and reports are that it may launch a Singapore-based 12-inch semiconductor fab.</li>
<li>ChipMOS discount still compelling; and we now have detailed coverage of the company.</li>
</ul>


United Microelectronics ADRs trading at a discount, risk-reward appears compelling.
TSMC has normalized; and reports are that it may launch a Singapore-based 12-inch semiconductor fab.
ChipMOS discount still compelling; and we now have detailed coverage of the company.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Normalizes; UMC, ChipMOS Compelling Discounts

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor revenue decline took a short break in October.</li>
<li>Spot market prices for DRAM and NAND flash have slowed their decrease.</li>
<li>These are signs that the current market collapse is slowing, although we haven't hit bottom yet.</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor revenue decline took a short break in October.
Spot market prices for DRAM and NAND flash have slowed their decrease.
These are signs that the current market collapse is slowing, although we haven't hit bottom yet.


Germany

Infineon Technologies AG designs, manufactures, and markets semiconductors. The Company offers products include power semiconductors, microcontrollers, security controllers, radio frequency products, and sensors. Infineon markets its products to the automotive, industrial, communications, and consumer and security electronics sectors.

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Infineon Technologies (IFX GR)

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One week before most chip companies report revenues, the semiconductor market seems to be slowing its decline. Although the market hasn't yet hit...

Jim Handy

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