European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts have generally widened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market losses. </li>
<li>Recommendations long ords / short prefs: BMW, Fuchs Petrolub, Investor AB, SSAB.</li>
<li>Recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson Handelsbanken, Roche, Schroders.</li>
</ul>


Discounts have generally widened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market losses. 
Recommendations long ords / short prefs: BMW, Fuchs Petrolub, Investor AB, SSAB.
Recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson Handelsbanken, Roche, Schroders.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June ‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market gains.</li>
<li>Recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Investor AB, SSAB.</li>
<li>Recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson Handelsbanken, Roche, Schroders.</li>
</ul>


Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market gains.
Recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Investor AB, SSAB.
Recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson Handelsbanken, Roche, Schroders.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '22 Report

Danieli & C. Officine Meccaniche / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market gains.</li>
<li>Recommendations Long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Svenska Handelsbanken, Ericsson.</li>
<li>Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: Danieli, Sixt, Atlas Copco, Grifols, Telecom Italia, Volvo AB, Volkswagen, Schroders.</li>
</ul>


Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market gains.
Recommendations Long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Svenska Handelsbanken, Ericsson.
Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: Danieli, Sixt, Atlas Copco, Grifols, Telecom Italia, Volvo AB, Volkswagen, Schroders.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>Spreads have generally widened across our liquid universe in line with the recent market turmoil.</li>
<li>Recommendations Long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken.</li>
<li>Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: Atalas Copco, Grifols, Investor AB, SSAB, Telecom Italia (takeover interest), Volkswagen, is Schroders near the bottom?</li>
</ul>


Spreads have generally widened across our liquid universe in line with the recent market turmoil.
Recommendations Long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken.
Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: Atalas Copco, Grifols, Investor AB, SSAB, Telecom Italia (takeover interest), Volkswagen, is Schroders near the bottom?


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '22 Report

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I would value Porsche on 18.9x €5.3 billion 22eEBIT, i.e. €100bn; Ferrari, which has moderately higher EBIT margins (25% vs. 16%), trades on 31.2x EV/22e EBIT (Capital IQ consensus).</li>
<li>The current discount of VW prefs to ords is 23.2%. A Porsche IPO without major changes on VW share structure, would be positive for the preference shares. Long prefs/short ords.</li>
<li>An IPO of Porsche would be beneficial for the Porsche SE shares and the current discount to NAV should tighten even more, in my view. Long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR.</li>
</ul>


I would value Porsche on 18.9x €5.3 billion 22eEBIT, i.e. €100bn; Ferrari, which has moderately higher EBIT margins (25% vs. 16%), trades on 31.2x EV/22e EBIT (Capital IQ consensus).
The current discount of VW prefs to ords is 23.2%. A Porsche IPO without major changes on VW share structure, would be positive for the preference shares. Long prefs/short ords.
An IPO of Porsche would be beneficial for the Porsche SE shares and the current discount to NAV should tighten even more, in my view. Long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR.


Germany

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) manufactures and sells cars and motorcycles. The Company offers convertible sports cars, sedans, and touring motorcycles with large displacement engines. BMW serves customers worldwide.

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Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) (BMW GR)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June ‘22 Report

For the most part since mid-May, spreads were compressing, but inflation fears and rate rises have hit hard the stock markets in the last trading...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '22 Report

Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market gains. Schroders announced a share class unification.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘22 Report

Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe in line with the recent market gains. Danieli, Media for Europe, Schroders and Sixt...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '22 Report

Spreads have generally widened across our liquid universe in line with the recent market turmoil. Schroders non-voting and Sixt prefs. stand out...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

PAR3/VOW3/Potential Porsche IPO

The valuation of Porsche OpCo could reach €100 billion, vs. a market capitalization of c. €109.4 billion of VW. This is a feasible range...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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