CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

We have a SELL recommendation on CHAYO with our target price of Bt6.90, implying a downside of 16% from the current price. We derive our target price from the PB/ROE of Thai Diversified Financials and apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:
<ul>
<li>Rising level of bad loans in Thailand can boost core business</li>
<li>Economic uncertainty helps to expand the customer base for debt collection</li>
<li>Debt collection to further benefit from increasing mobile usage</li>
<li>High growth is priced in, warrant exercise to fund growth</li>
</ul>
Interim: The 2Q20 results were mainly in line with our expectations, slightly higher provisioning. We still think that CHAYO lags on enormous growth opportunities.
Risks: Increased competition in acquiring non-performing loans, loss from unsecured debt management, adverse regulatory changes, and potential litigation issues arising from debt collection service. A risk to our recommendation is that sentiment drives the share price considerably higher.

We have a SELL recommendation on CHAYO with our target price of Bt6.90, implying a downside of 16% from the current price. We derive our target price from the PB/ROE of Thai Diversified Financials and apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:

Rising level of bad loans in Thailand can boost core business
Economic uncertainty helps to expand the customer base for debt collection
Debt collection to further benefit from increasing mobile usage
High growth is priced in, warrant exercise to fund growth

Interim: The 2Q20 results were mainly in line with our expectations, slightly higher provisioning. We still think that CHAYO lags on enormous growth opportunities.
Risks: Increased competition in acquiring non-performing loans, loss from unsecured debt management, adverse regulatory changes, and potential litigation issues arising from debt collection service. A risk to our recommendation is that sentiment drives the share price considerably higher.

CHAYO: Remarkable Growth, but Would Need More

We initiate coverage on CHAYO with a SELL recommendation based on a target price of Bt6.90, implying a downside of 12% from the current price. We derive our target price from the PB/ROE of Thai Diversified Financials and apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:
<ul>
<li>Rising level of bad loans in Thailand can boost core business</li>
<li>Economic uncertainty helps to expand the customer base for debt collection</li>
<li>Debt collection to further benefit from increasing mobile usage</li>
<li>High growth is priced in, warrant exercise to fund growth</li>
</ul>
Risks: Increased competition in acquiring non-performing loans, loss from unsecured debt management, adverse regulatory changes, and potential litigation issues arising from debt collection service. A risk to our recommendation is that sentiment drives the share price considerably higher.

We initiate coverage on CHAYO with a SELL recommendation based on a target price of Bt6.90, implying a downside of 12% from the current price. We derive our target price from the PB/ROE of Thai Diversified Financials and apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:

Rising level of bad loans in Thailand can boost core business
Economic uncertainty helps to expand the customer base for debt collection
Debt collection to further benefit from increasing mobile usage
High growth is priced in, warrant exercise to fund growth

Risks: Increased competition in acquiring non-performing loans, loss from unsecured debt management, adverse regulatory changes, and potential litigation issues arising from debt collection service. A risk to our recommendation is that sentiment drives the share price considerably higher.

CHAYO: When the Going Gets Tough, CHAYO Gets Going

Thailand

SCB X Public Company Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers accounts, loans, cards, deposits, insurance, investment, payment, digital banking, and other related services. SCB X serves customers worldwide.

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Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)

CHAYO: Remarkable Growth, but Would Need More

The 2Q20 results were in line with our expectations, slightly higher provisioning. We still think that CHAYO lags on enormous growth opportunities.

A. Stotz Investment Research

CHAYO: When the Going Gets Tough, CHAYO Gets Going

We initiate coverage on CHAYO with a SELL recommendation based on a target price of Bt6.90, implying a downside of 12% from the current price. We...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)