Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Where there are many other areas of interest in Asia, globally, the figures just out for Bangkok Bank are incredible to us, not in a positive way.</li>
<li>The bank has seen its NPLs rise from THB71bn to THB85bn to THB92bn from 4Q23 to 2Q24 to 3Q24, putting YTD growth at 29%</li>
<li>The bank has more than 1/4 of its loans in manufacturing &amp; commercial where loan balances are down 4.0% YTD and down 4.3% QoQ</li>
</ul>


Where there are many other areas of interest in Asia, globally, the figures just out for Bangkok Bank are incredible to us, not in a positive way.
The bank has seen its NPLs rise from THB71bn to THB85bn to THB92bn from 4Q23 to 2Q24 to 3Q24, putting YTD growth at 29%
The bank has more than 1/4 of its loans in manufacturing &amp; commercial where loan balances are down 4.0% YTD and down 4.3% QoQ


Bangkok Bank - BBL Sees 29% Higher NPLs YTD and Core Manufacturing & Commercial Loans -4% YTD

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-union-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:161:1" rel="noopener">Thai Union Group (TU TB)</a>. </li>
<li>As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB). 
As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Non-Uniform Growth

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> FY2021 results reflect a rapid recovery in its core auto business plus commodity-related businesses, with +96% YoY net profit growth stripping out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>The auto and related finance businesses should continue to perform well in 2022, with government luxury tax stimulus measures in place plus commodity prices will support <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors'</a> performance.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> remains a top pick for the economic recovery in Indonesia plus the company continues to look for investment opportunities to redeploy funds raised from Permata sales.</li>
</ul>



Astra International (ASII IJ) FY2021 results reflect a rapid recovery in its core auto business plus commodity-related businesses, with +96% YoY net profit growth stripping out Bank Permata (BNLI IJ). 
The auto and related finance businesses should continue to perform well in 2022, with government luxury tax stimulus measures in place plus commodity prices will support United Tractors' performance.  

Astra International (ASII IJ) remains a top pick for the economic recovery in Indonesia plus the company continues to look for investment opportunities to redeploy funds raised from Permata sales.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Rock Solid

<ul>
<li>Can benefit from years of strong growth in banks' debt collection</li>
<li>Returns remain exceptional at over 7% during last twelve months</li>
<li>Book value growth is astonishing from THB121m to THB5,755m in past 10 years</li>
</ul>


Can benefit from years of strong growth in banks' debt collection
Returns remain exceptional at over 7% during last twelve months
Book value growth is astonishing from THB121m to THB5,755m in past 10 years


JMT Network Services - Near Infinite Debt Collection Supply?

<ul>
<li>Headlines of UOB 3Q24 while strong at the bottom line, we have a very different read of the numbers </li>
<li>Investment &amp; trading income is more than the whole delta in UOB's net profit during 3Q24 YoY and QoQ</li>
<li>Operating costs rose 12% YoY, while net interest income was up just 1% YoY and core net fee income was up 7% YoY</li>
</ul>


Headlines of UOB 3Q24 while strong at the bottom line, we have a very different read of the numbers 
Investment &amp; trading income is more than the whole delta in UOB's net profit during 3Q24 YoY and QoQ
Operating costs rose 12% YoY, while net interest income was up just 1% YoY and core net fee income was up 7% YoY


UOB - Profit +SGD228m YoY, Trading & Investment Income +SGD320m YoY, 3Q24 Not as Great as Headline

Thailand

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited provides various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage lending, international trade financing, investment banking, and securities services.

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Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)

Bangkok Bank - BBL Sees 29% Higher NPLs YTD and Core Manufacturing & Commercial Loans -4% YTD

BBL is seeing dwindling loan balances in its core segment - manufacturing and commercial loans are -4% YTD. And what's worse: its NPLs are surging,...

Daniel Tabbush

I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Non-Uniform Growth

I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of...

Sumeet Singh

Astra International (ASII IJ) - Rock Solid

Astra International remains a top pick for the economic recovery in Indonesia plus the company continues to look for investment opportunities to...

Angus Mackintosh

JMT Network Services - Near Infinite Debt Collection Supply?

JMT focuses on debt collection for banks and finance companies, where the flow of business can be especially strong for years, and where returns...

Daniel Tabbush

UOB - Profit +SGD228m YoY, Trading & Investment Income +SGD320m YoY, 3Q24 Not as Great as Headline

UOB's results were good at bottom line, but we believe that they are misunderstood. Trading, investment income drove profit delta, not net interest...

Daniel Tabbush

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