Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Select regions such as the US, Europe, Japan, and India are bullish, while others are not -- namely Hong Kong and China.</li>
<li>Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the MSCI ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a breakout. </li>
<li>We highlight several buy opportunities within global Technology and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


Select regions such as the US, Europe, Japan, and India are bullish, while others are not -- namely Hong Kong and China.
Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the MSCI ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a breakout. 
We highlight several buy opportunities within global Technology and Consumer Discretionary.


Add To Global Technology and Consumer Discretionary

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21713:1" rel="noopener">Siemens AG (SIE GR)</a> were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). Sony Corp (6758 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) and Siemens AG (SIE GR) were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Global Fund Positioning Update:  Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

While Samsung argues that EUV is necessary to cost-effectively produce today's DRAMs, Micron plans to postpone its use of EUV until 2024.  Meanwhile, SK hynix is experimenting with the technology on its most advanced process node.
This Smartkarma Insight examines the reasons that each company is following a different path.  Although we can't predict which is the best direction, it is not difficult to see that Micron and Samsung are in better positions than SK hynix, and that ASML will thrive no matter which side wins.

While Samsung argues that EUV is necessary to cost-effectively produce today's DRAMs, Micron plans to postpone its use of EUV until 2024.  Meanwhile, SK hynix is experimenting with the technology on its most advanced process node.
This Smartkarma Insight examines the reasons that each company is following a different path.  Although we can't predict which is the best direction, it is not difficult to see that Micron and Samsung are in better positions than SK hynix, and that ASML will thrive no matter which side wins.

The last decade has seen EMEA allocations in active GEM portfolios drift ever lower, with Asia becoming the dominant weight.  However, the recent rhetoric from China has seen Asian allocations fall from their peak and EMEA allocations rally from their lows.  Average weights in EMEA stocks stand at 13.72%, marginally overweight the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF by 0.24%, with just under half of the active managers in our analysis overweight. <ul>
<li>Over the course of the last decade, exposure to each EMEA sector has either fallen dramatically or at best stayed largely unchanged.  Those that have seen a big decline in investment are led by EMEA Industrials and Health Care, with over 40% of investors closing exposure.  </li>
<li>The largest sector exposure, EMEA Financials allocations sit towards the lower-end of their historical range.  Top holdings are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sberbank-of-russia-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24142:1" rel="noopener">Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otp-bank-nyrt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28806:1" rel="noopener">OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP HB)</a> with 59% and 31% of funds invested respectively.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcs-group-holding-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28148:1" rel="noopener">TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS LI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitec-bank-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27628:1" rel="noopener">Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CPI SJ)</a> saw ownership levels increase the most over the last 6-months.</li>
<li>Consumer Discretionary weights hit another all-time high this month of 1.46%, representing a 1.04% overweight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF.  Underpinning the overweight are out-of-benchmark holdings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> and Fix Price Group, though in general stocks in the sector are not widely held.  Funds with big overweights are led by Comgest's GEM Promising Companies Fund (8.98%) and Van Eck's Emerging Markets Fund (7.21%).  </li>
<li>With active ownership declining throughout 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23749:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)</a> has finally been the recipient of some inflows.  Over the last 6-months, 2% of funds added Gazprom to their portfolios with a combined $217m in inflows.  Leading those were Fidelity (2.7%), Virtus Allianz (2.67%) and JP Morgan ($64m).</li>
</ul>The analysis looks in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks that underpin investment in the region.Analysis taken from our GEM fund research, covering 250 active GEM strategies with combined AUM of $500bn

The last decade has seen EMEA allocations in active GEM portfolios drift ever lower, with Asia becoming the dominant weight.  However, the recent rhetoric from China has seen Asian allocations fall from their peak and EMEA allocations rally from their lows.  Average weights in EMEA stocks stand at 13.72%, marginally overweight the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF by 0.24%, with just under half of the active managers in our analysis overweight. 
Over the course of the last decade, exposure to each EMEA sector has either fallen dramatically or at best stayed largely unchanged.  Those that have seen a big decline in investment are led by EMEA Industrials and Health Care, with over 40% of investors closing exposure.  
The largest sector exposure, EMEA Financials allocations sit towards the lower-end of their historical range.  Top holdings are Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI) and OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP HB) with 59% and 31% of funds invested respectively.  TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS LI) and Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CPI SJ) saw ownership levels increase the most over the last 6-months.
Consumer Discretionary weights hit another all-time high this month of 1.46%, representing a 1.04% overweight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF.  Underpinning the overweight are out-of-benchmark holdings in Prosus (PRX NA) and Fix Price Group, though in general stocks in the sector are not widely held.  Funds with big overweights are led by Comgest's GEM Promising Companies Fund (8.98%) and Van Eck's Emerging Markets Fund (7.21%).  
With active ownership declining throughout 2020, Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX) has finally been the recipient of some inflows.  Over the last 6-months, 2% of funds added Gazprom to their portfolios with a combined $217m in inflows.  Leading those were Fidelity (2.7%), Virtus Allianz (2.67%) and JP Morgan ($64m).
The analysis looks in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks that underpin investment in the region.Analysis taken from our GEM fund research, covering 250 active GEM strategies with combined AUM of $500bn

EMEA Sectors Deep-Dive.  Active Positioning in the EMEA Region

The semiconductor market reached record revenues in June.  Much of this has been driven by a mild shortage in semiconductor memories, DRAM and NAND flash, but the larger shortage of older technologies has also had a hand in this.

The semiconductor market reached record revenues in June.  Much of this has been driven by a mild shortage in semiconductor memories, DRAM and NAND flash, but the larger shortage of older technologies has also had a hand in this.

June Semiconductor Revenues Reach New Record

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

Add To Global Technology and Consumer Discretionary

Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a...

Vermilion Research

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

Does DRAM Need EUV?

Is EUV really necessary for DRAM? Samsung thinks so, while Micron disagrees. Whoever wins will enjoy a lower cost structure than the other. ...

Jim Handy

EMEA Sectors Deep-Dive. Active Positioning in the EMEA Region

The last decade has seen EMEA weights drift ever lower. We look in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks...

Steven Holden

June Semiconductor Revenues Reach New Record

Semiconductor revenues are breaking historic records. Can this trend continue? Trend analysis indicates that it should end. We will be watching...

Jim Handy

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