Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC and ASML reported results last week, with both companies beating consensus earnings expectations.</li>
<li>TSMC and ASML both expect their historically high margins to persist and have both shown a major decline in inventory levels. </li>
<li>TSMC expects utilization to bottom in 2Q23E and improve thereafter; which we believe is strong indication of the cycle bottoming for leaders. TSMC however sees the overall industry taking longer.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and ASML reported results last week, with both companies beating consensus earnings expectations.
TSMC and ASML both expect their historically high margins to persist and have both shown a major decline in inventory levels. 
TSMC expects utilization to bottom in 2Q23E and improve thereafter; which we believe is strong indication of the cycle bottoming for leaders. TSMC however sees the overall industry taking longer.


Nvidia, TSMC, ASML Trading Monitor -  TSMC & ASML Results Indicate Cycle Bottom 2Q23E for Leaders

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With ~2x exposure to memory compared to its peers, LRCX is feeling the pain</li>
<li>Q1 revenues of  $3.87 billion were marginally higher than the forecasted midpoint, down 26.7% sequentially and down 4.4% YoY.</li>
<li>For the current quarter, LRCX expects revenues to decline a further ~ 20% to $3.1 billion at the midpoint.</li>
</ul>


With ~2x exposure to memory compared to its peers, LRCX is feeling the pain
Q1 revenues of  $3.87 billion were marginally higher than the forecasted midpoint, down 26.7% sequentially and down 4.4% YoY.
For the current quarter, LRCX expects revenues to decline a further ~ 20% to $3.1 billion at the midpoint.


<ul>
<li>No change to FY 2023 outlook but some EUV orders for H2 2024 still remain to be booked</li>
<li>Net systems bookings fell sharply during the quarter, down ~40% sequentially</li>
<li>With an order backlog of ~$39 billion, we see ASML riding out this semi storm relatively unscathed compared to their peers.  </li>
</ul>


No change to FY 2023 outlook but some EUV orders for H2 2024 still remain to be booked
Net systems bookings fell sharply during the quarter, down ~40% sequentially
With an order backlog of ~$39 billion, we see ASML riding out this semi storm relatively unscathed compared to their peers.  


ASML. Still A Safe Harbor In A Semi Storm

<ul>
<li>TSMC is cutting its 2023E capex plans by 12% according to Taiwan's EDN. The company will also report earnings this Thursday.</li>
<li>TSMC suppliers ASML and Lam Research will also be reporting this week. Realtek will report this week as well.</li>
<li>Delta Thailand valuation still precarious relative to Delta Taiwan. Apple has continued to outperform the Quanta &amp; Pegatron pair.</li>
</ul>


TSMC is cutting its 2023E capex plans by 12% according to Taiwan's EDN. The company will also report earnings this Thursday.
TSMC suppliers ASML and Lam Research will also be reporting this week. Realtek will report this week as well.
Delta Thailand valuation still precarious relative to Delta Taiwan. Apple has continued to outperform the Quanta &amp; Pegatron pair.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cutting Capex, Earnings This Week; Suppliers ASML & Lam Also Will Report

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimberly-clark-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2292:1" rel="noopener">Kimberly Clark (KMB US)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackberry-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25472:1" rel="noopener">BlackBerry Ltd (BB CN)</a></strong> </li>
<li>For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.6%, versus DJIA +0.4%, S&amp;P500 +4.3%, Nasdaq +8.8%, Russell2000 -3.7%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +6.2%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>For the same period the small cap innovation portfolio was up +5.9%, the mid cap portfolio was up +4.4% and the large cap portfolio was up +3.4%</li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are CATL (A) (300750 CH) , Kimberly Clark (KMB US) and BlackBerry Ltd (BB CN) 
For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.6%, versus DJIA +0.4%, S&amp;P500 +4.3%, Nasdaq +8.8%, Russell2000 -3.7%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +6.2%, all in US$ terms
For the same period the small cap innovation portfolio was up +5.9%, the mid cap portfolio was up +4.4% and the large cap portfolio was up +3.4%


The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty One

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

Nvidia, TSMC, ASML Trading Monitor - TSMC & ASML Results Indicate Cycle Bottom 2Q23E for Leaders

TSMC and ASML both expect their historically high margins to persist and have both shown a major decline in inventory levels.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

LRCX. Memory Bites. Hard

With ~2x exposure to memory compared to its peers, LRCX is feeling the pain.Q1 revenues of $3.87 billion were -26.7% sequentially and -4.4% YoY....

William Keating

ASML. Still A Safe Harbor In A Semi Storm

No change to FY 2023 outlook but some EUV orders for H2 2024 remain to be booked. With an order backlog of ~$39 billion, ASML will ride out this...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cutting Capex, Earnings This Week; Suppliers ASML & Lam Also Will Report

Delta Thailand valuation still precarious relative to Delta Taiwan. Apple has continued to outperform the Quanta & Pegatron pair.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty One

For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the innovation small cap portfolio was up 5.9%, mid cap portfolio was up 4.4% and the large...

Pyari Menon

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